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Wednesday, July 31, 2019

The Fed cut rates as expected but the market didn't enjoy the comments by chairman Powell and the Dow fell 333 points on very heavy volume.  The advance/declines were about 2 to 1 negative.  The breadth wasn't as bad as a down over 300 market would suggest.  The summation index is still moving sideways but another day like today will move it lower.  The VIX jumped today and is now above its 50 day moving average.  The short term technical indicators for the major averages have now rolled over but aren't oversold yet.  So it appears that there will be some more selling going forward.  GE lost a few cents on very heavy volume.  However it did hold up rather well given the markets decline.  Gold dropped on the Fed comments as well, with the futures shedding over $15.  The US dollar rose and closed above resistance at the 98 level.  This could turn into a bigger development going forward and is something to watch.  A run to the 100 level would be bearish for gold.  The XAU dropped over 4 1/2, while GDX lost 1 1/3.  Volume was extremely heavy.  They piled into gold and now it looks like they are piling out.  I still like the longer term gold share calls when they get oversold.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  No guts, no glory as the SPY August puts were the play here.  It looks as though the market has plenty of room to move lower from here.  We may be in the environment of good news is bad and bad news is good as it relates to the incoming economic data.  The Fed clearly has created a dilemma here by cutting rates and then saying that may be it.  There wasn't really a need to cut today in my view but we are here to trade and make money, not complain about economic events.  We'll have to keep a close eye on what happens in markets tonight.  The jobs report on Friday will be a mover as well and if it comes in strong, my guess is lower we will go.  Is it too late for the SPY August puts?  Probably but this also has the potential of something to chase.  We'll know as time moves on.  Asia was lower, with Europe up with the exception of the FTSE.

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