Tuesday, July 30, 2019
Lower ahead of the Fed but the market did come off of its worst levels of the day. The Dow fell 23 points on good volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is trending sideways. The overall market was weaker than the Dow. We've been sideways with the Dow for 2 1/2 weeks now. I expect a resolution this week. The sideways movement of the summation index usually leads to a drop lower in that indicator. We'll see. The Fed should drop rates by a 1/4 tomorrow and if that doesn't lead to a rally things could get interesting. I'm still in favor of the SPY August puts but haven't purchased any. GE was up about 1/8 on average volume. Earnings are due here tomorrow. that should get the stock moving one way or the other. Gold was up over $10 ahead of the Fed. The US dollar finished the session little changed. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves higher on light volume. The gold shares did not follow gold higher and that hasn't happened lately. These issues should move tomorrow on the Fed as well. Mentally I'm feeling OK. We're all waiting for the markets reaction to the Fed. When that is digested it will be on to the employment report on Friday. After that, who knows? No news from the US/China trade talks today. Most of the major stock indexes remain short term overbought and have been for a while. Tomorrow should tell the story if we are going to new all time highs again or if we roll over. I still favor the SPY August puts. But if you don't own any does it really matter? I also am still in favor of the longer term gold share calls if we ever get oversold there. Asia higher and Europe lower last night. We'll see what the Fed has to say tomorrow.
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