The Fed cut rates as expected but the market didn't enjoy the comments by chairman Powell and the Dow fell 333 points on very heavy volume.  The advance/declines were about 2 to 1 negative.  The breadth wasn't as bad as a down over 300 market would suggest.  The summation index is still moving sideways but another day like today will move it lower.  The VIX jumped today and is now above its 50 day moving average.  The short term technical indicators for the major averages have now rolled over but aren't oversold yet.  So it appears that there will be some more selling going forward.  GE lost a few cents on very heavy volume.  However it did hold up rather well given the markets decline.  Gold dropped on the Fed comments as well, with the futures shedding over $15.  The US dollar rose and closed above resistance at the 98 level.  This could turn into a bigger development going forward and is something to watch.  A run to the 100 level would be bearish for gold.  The XAU dropped over 4 1/2, while GDX lost 1 1/3.  Volume was extremely heavy.  They piled into gold and now it looks like they are piling out.  I still like the longer term gold share calls when they get oversold.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  No guts, no glory as the SPY August puts were the play here.  It looks as though the market has plenty of room to move lower from here.  We may be in the environment of good news is bad and bad news is good as it relates to the incoming economic data.  The Fed clearly has created a dilemma here by cutting rates and then saying that may be it.  There wasn't really a need to cut today in my view but we are here to trade and make money, not complain about economic events.  We'll have to keep a close eye on what happens in markets tonight.  The jobs report on Friday will be a mover as well and if it comes in strong, my guess is lower we will go.  Is it too late for the SPY August puts?  Probably but this also has the potential of something to chase.  We'll know as time moves on.  Asia was lower, with Europe up with the exception of the FTSE.

Lower ahead of the Fed but the market did come off of its worst levels of the day.  The Dow fell 23 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is trending sideways.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow.  We've been sideways with the Dow for 2 1/2 weeks now.  I expect a resolution this week.  The sideways movement of the summation index usually leads to a drop lower in that indicator.  We'll see.  The Fed should drop rates by a 1/4 tomorrow and if that doesn't lead to a rally things could get interesting.  I'm still in favor of the SPY August puts but haven't purchased any.  GE was up about 1/8 on average volume.  Earnings are due here tomorrow.  that should get the stock moving one way or the other.  Gold was up over $10 ahead of the Fed.  The US dollar finished the session little changed.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves higher on light volume.  The gold shares did not follow gold higher and that hasn't happened lately.  These issues should move tomorrow on the Fed as well.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We're all waiting for the markets reaction to the Fed.  When that is digested it will be on to the employment report on Friday.  After that, who knows?  No news from the US/China trade talks today.  Most of the major stock indexes remain short term overbought and have been for a while.  Tomorrow should tell the story if we are going to new all time highs again or if we roll over.  I still favor the SPY August puts.  But if you don't own any does it really matter?  I also am still in favor of the longer term gold share calls if we ever get oversold there.  Asia higher and Europe lower last night.  We'll see what the Fed has to say tomorrow. 

Another mixed bag to begin the week as the Dow rose 28 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were just about even.  The summation index is trending sideways.  Waiting on the Fed and that will be out of the way on Wednesday.  The US and China will start trade talks again tomorrow.  That's always a wild card but perhaps the market has grown weary of it.  Jobs report due on Friday so this won't be the typical quiet summer week.  I'm not sure what to do here so I'll wait for the Fed and go from there.  We are still short term overbought for the major stock indices.  GE was off 1/8 on light volume.  Gold rose $7 and the US dollar was a bit higher.  The XAU added 1 1/8, while GDX gained 1/2.  Volume was good.  Unless we see some weakness in GDX this week I most likely will not get a chance to try the longer term gold share calls.  Money continues to pour into these stocks and that cannot be ignored.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX picked up a bit today and the indicators have turned higher there.  Whether or not this precedes some volatility remains to be seen but it cannot be ruled out.  I'd still like to try some SPY August puts but don't have the guts at the moment.  My guess is that the drop in rates due on Wednesday may already be in the market.  The reaction then may not be as positive as one would expect.  That's my guess at the moment.  Of course there's also plenty of earnings out this week to drive the individual issues.  I'm going to try and remain patient.  The best signal right now for the S&P is more of a sell than a buy.  GDX acts like it wants to go higher here but I really need to wait for a decent set up.  But it may not appear.  Europe and Asia were mixed to start the trading week.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments. 

Back to the upside today as the Dow gained 51 points on light volume.  the advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is trying to turn back up but is still trending sideways.  The overall market was much stronger than the Dow.  The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ set new all time highs again.  GDP was lower than the 1st quarter but that was expected.  Earnings drove things up today just like they took us lower yesterday.  That is the trading environment that we're in.  GE was up a few cents on very light volume.  Gold was up a few bucks and the US dollar was higher as well.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume.  GDX remains short term overbought but has come off of the best levels there.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The overall market remains overbought as well but in rallies it simply stays that way.  That has been the case for this summer rally thus far.  We'll get the Fed on Wednesday and that will be a market mover.  The employment report then comes out on Friday.  Not sure what effect that will have unless the number is completely out of whack.  We'll have earnings to contend with as well.  I'm still considering the SPY August puts on a valid sell signal.  I'm also looking at a longer term view of the S&P 500 and a possible megaphone formation may be taking place.  That has downside implications.  The longer term gold share calls are still on my radar but we haven't gotten to oversold yet.  A lot will be determined once we get the fed out of the way and the markets reaction to that.  I'm still on the sidelines but if a proper set up appears, I'm ready to go.  Asia lower and Europe higher to finish the week.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

We saw some selling today as the Dow fell 129 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were short of 3 to 1 negative.  The summation index is still trending sideways but another day like today will turn it down.  Could we be forming some kind of top here?  The short term technical indicators for the S&P now look like they want to turn back down.  Everything was looking positive yesterday but the market does what it wants.  GE lost 1/4 on light volume.  Gold dropped almost $10 as the US dollar was a bit higher.  The XAU lost 2 1/8, while GDX shed almost 3/4.  Volume was good.  I'm hoping that this is the start of an actual decline for the gold shares but that remains to be seen.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We'll get the first look at 2nd quarter GDP tomorrow morning.  That should set the early tone for the day.  It is expected to be lower than the 1st quarter and I think everyone can agree on that.  Any surprise will have market consequences.  We are still waiting on the Fed for next week.  I would like to have the guts to purchase some SPY August puts ahead of that announcement but if we do drop tomorrow that window of opportunity will probably have passed.  It also may be prudent to let the Fed out of the way before taking any positions.  But you can't stay on the sidelines forever.  Asia higher and Europe lower overnight.  We close out the trading week tomorrow.

A mixed bag today as the Dow fell 79 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were well over 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is still trending sideways.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow with the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ hitting new all time highs.  Earnings are driving companies one way or the other.  We're getting back to short term overbought for the major stock indices but aren't completely there yet.  GE was up a few cents on lighter volume.  Gold was up a few bucks and the US dollar finished little changed.  The XAU added 1 3/4, while GDX rose almost 1/3.  Volume was light.  NEM reports tomorrow and that will most likely set the tone for the gold shares.  It really doesn't look like I'll get a chance to participate in this gold share rally.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  How much higher will we go here is now the question in my mind.  No overhead resistance and a week to go before the Fed.  I'm keeping an eye on the SPY August puts but there's no hurry to put a trade on.  The SPY calls on Monday was the play it seems in retrospect.  So I'll sit on the sidelines until there's a valid signal or something else comes along.  Asia was higher and Europe mixed overnight.  We'll keep an eye on the earnings after the bell and see how it goes tomorrow.   

Not a quiet summer day today as the Dow climbed 177 points on average volume.  the advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is still trending sideways.  Good earnings were the reason given today for the advance.  No new all time highs today but if this keeps up there will be.  It seems that my idea for the SPY August puts is either wrong or premature.  The short term technical indicators have turned back up so perhaps todays gains will have legs.  GE was up 3/8 on heavy volume.  Gold took a breather and dropped $8.  The US dollar was higher.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on above average volume.  There is a potential negative divergence for the gold shares on the daily RSI indicator.  If it pans out it may give us the opportunity to try the longer term gold share calls in a couple of weeks.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX is back below 13 as it appears whatever selling that we saw last week has run its course.  Earnings seem to be the driver now as the US/China trade talks have faded into the background.  Another week before the Fed announcement so there's time for a rally to perhaps develop from todays rise.  I'm still considering the SPY August puts but I'll be on hold for now.  It now appears like yesterday was the time for the calls there.  But things can and do turn on a dime in this game.  The gold shares seem to be holding up better than the precious metal here and that's a plus for the bulls.  I'd keep an eye on the US dollar here though because a move above 98 will put this gold rally in doubt.  That's a guess on my part but something to watch in my humble opinion.  Europe and Asia were both higher overnight as money seems to be finding its way back into stocks around the globe.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Another lackluster trading session to begin the week as the Dow rose 17 points on light volume.  the advance/declines were slightly negative.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow though.  The summation index is trending sideways.  Just marking time it seems before the Fed announcement next week.  I'm leaning towards the SPY August puts if we see a light volume levitation from here.  GE was up over 1/8 on light volume.  Gold didn't do much today and neither did the US dollar.  The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We've rolled into the August option cycle.  Really no hurry to do anything at the moment.  It is times like these that you've got to stay patient.  Gold and the gold shares remain short term overbought.  The major stock indices did see the technical indicators roll over.  The small stock indicators have turned back up.  If the large caps follow we could see a rally.  The volume and movement of that rally will let you know if it worth going the other way.  Hasn't happened yet but that is the scenario that I'm looking for.  I do still like the September gold share calls if we see a pullback.  Straight up there cannot last indefinitely.  Asia lower and Europe higher to begin the week overseas.  It's summertime and the trading is slow. 

It was a one day reversal back to the downside today as the Dow fell 68 points on about average volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is trending sideways.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow.  It was a down week for stocks but the short term indicators remain overbought.  GE was off a couple cents and the volume was light.  Gold gave back what it gained yesterday.  The US dollar was higher.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on good volume.  The gold shares still held up well despite a $20 loss in the precious metal.  I still like the longer term calls here if we ever get a short term oversold reading.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Waiting of the Fed and that is still a week and a half away.  Even with that, the announcement will come out and then what?  Could all the good news already be baked into the stock market leaving nobody left to buy?  It's a possibility in my mind.  August has been known to not be so kind to the stock market.  For now I suppose it will be just wait and see.  We're rolling into the August option cycle, so premiums will be inflated.  It doesn't look like the gold shares are going to give me a chance to get in there.  I'll remain on the sidelines hoping to get in but if we don't get oversold on a short term basis I probably won't try it.  We've gone straight up 40% the past couple of months for GDX and that is not sustainable.  I'll be looking things over this weekend as usual but I'm probably just going to wait for the Fed at the end of the month.  It is summertime.  Europe and Asia were higher overnight.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest. 

It was a one day reversal to the upside as the Dow opened lower and barely closed higher.  It gained 3 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is beginning to move sideways.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow.  Earnings are driving things until we get the fed at the end of the month.  GE was up eight cents on light volume.  Gold soared $24 on the futures as the US dollar was lower.  The XAU climbed three points while GDX gained 1 1/8.  Volume was heavy again.  The gold shares broke out, had a consolidation and now have broken out again.  Overbought continuously and I'm a fool for not just getting on board.  There is no pullback to get long here.  Practically straight up has been the scenario and I did know that possibility.  It won't end well of course but nobody knows where the end will be.  GDX is now over 28 and has risen about 10% in two days.  It will get to 30 because there is no resistance in the way.  I'm still considering the September calls here but the time has passed on getting a decent trade on here.  Mentally I'm frustrated for missing out on GDX.  It isn't a good frame of mind to be in playing this game.  I just can't bring myself to buy the calls when we are this overbought both short and medium term.  However patience hasn't paid off for me here as I'm on the sidelines watching the money being made.  There is a lot of buying power behind this move and I'm sure that it has legs from here as well.  Once you see gold on the evening news, you'll know we're near the end.  The S&P has had a minor stall this week and we'll see where we go from here.  Europe and Asia were both lower overnight.  We'll see how the expiration goes tomorrow.

Selling continued as the Dow fell 115 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were shy of 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index turned around and is heading down.  The short term technical indicators for the major stock averages have started to turn down.  The TRAN got clobbered today on heavy volume and that is not a good sign.  I don't think that we're on the verge of a breakdown here but I could be wrong.  GE lost 3/8 on average volume.  Gold found buyers, the futures rose over $10.  The US dollar was lower.  The XAU jumped 3 1/4, while GDX gained a full point.  Volume was heavy.  I still like the longer term gold share calls despite the higher prices and the overbought nature.  Money has decided that this is the place to be and I expect to see the 30 price for the GDX.  I did not think it would be straight up but that's what it looks like will happen.  I would still like to wait and see an oversold reading on the indicators but that doesn't look like it will occur.  Mentally I'm feeling tired after a long day and the blog will be cut short today.  Europe and Asia were lower overnight as well.  It isn't a wholesale rout for now but we'll have to see where it goes. 

Minor selling today as the Dow fell 23 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index continues higher.  the overall market was weaker than the Dow.  We're still short term overbought for the major stock averages.  My guess is that we'll muddle through the week and go from there.  Basically on hold until the Fed at the end of the month.  Earnings will drive specific stocks.  GE was up a dime on light volume.  Gold was off a little over $5.  The US dollar was higher.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves on light volume.  I'm still looking to get the longer term calls here.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We are now in summertime market mode.  No big swings and lethargic trading.  Players away from their desks.  Not a lot of activity.  Patience for a proper set up is the way to go here until after Labor day.  Then things should get interesting again.  We sometimes get an August swoon and I'll be on the lookout for that.  But for now it's the middle of July and I'm not in a hurry to do anything.  Asia was lower and Europe higher last night.  We'll see how it goes tomorrow.  

A nondescript summer Monday as the Dow gained 27 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were barely negative.  The summation index is still moving up.  Bank earnings will dictate the week most likely.  It is options expiration week but if today is any indication it will be a yawner.  No SPY trades in mind at the moment.  GE lost a dime on light volume.  Gold rose three bucks and the US dollar was slightly higher.  The XAU and GDX finished little changed.  I'm still hoping to get some longer term calls there.  Technical conditions remain overbought.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Not much else to report here.  Barring a headline out of the blue, it appears that we will be on hold until the Fed at the end of the month.  Earnings will move things company specific, however I'm not sure what the overall effect on the S&P will be.  No urgency to trade here.  The overbought condition favors the puts in my mind since we've been overbought for quite a while.  It's a condition that won't last forever.  The VIX at such a low level favors complacency though.  Like I said, there's no rush to trade here.  A lot of players are out on summer break as well.  Asia was mixed and Europe higher to start the week.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments. 

Another day another new all time high as the Dow added 243 points on light volume.  the advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving up.  No overhead resistance for stocks so we'll see how high this can go.  I'm expecting more upside into the expiration next week.  The summer rally is in full force.  GE was up 1/4 on light volume.  Gold added nine bucks and the US dollar was lower.  The XAU and GDX had fractional gains again but the volume was lower.  I'm still in favor of the longer term calls here but it doesn't look like the market will give us a chance to purchase.  I'll remain patient for now but this looks like a trade that won't happen.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I had a lot to deal with this week and you cannot effectively trade when you've got outside things going on.  There is no shame in stepping aside for a while to gather yourself.  The market won't wait for you but there will always be opportunities down the road.  We know where things stand at the moment with regards to stocks.  Overbought, staying that way, new all time highs on a daily basis with options expiration week coming up.  The Fed is ready to provide more liquidity at the end of the month even if it isn't necessary.  There is nothing in the way of higher prices.  The US/China issues are on the back burner for now.  The only potential negative that I see is on the longer term weekly chart for the S&P.  There could be a megaphone pattern being formed but if we continue higher from here that will be negated.  Not much else to report here in the middle of July.  Europe and Asia were mixed overnight.  The weekend is upon us and I'll be checking the charts for the next trade.  But I'll also have to get some more rest after the week I've had.

The Dow climbed 227 points today on light volume.  The advance/declines were even.  The summation index is grinding higher.  The NASDAQ was lower today.  It was a mixed bag to be sure.  GE was off almost a dime.  Gold was off a bit and the US dollar finished little changed.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on good volume.  The blog is cut short again today due to medical issues.  Thank you for your patience.

The Dow added 76 points today on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index continues to move higher.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow as we continue to plow higher.  Chairman Powell spoke to Congress today and practically guaranteed a rate cut at the end of the month.  So it looks like a run higher into the July expiration is what is in the cards.  No overhead resistance so we'll have to see how far it goes.  GE lost a nickel on light volume.  Gold rallied as the futures added almost twenty bucks.  The US dollar dropped.  The XAU was up almost two points while GDX gained over 1/2.  Volume was good.  It looks the consolidation here is over and we're about to make another run higher.  Need to get those longer term GDX calls as soon as possible now.  This has the look of a trade that will only be successful because the money flows into the gold shares have been very positive.  What it means is that a lot of players are in this trade and will support higher prices going forward.  It looks like September is the month that they've chosen to complete the run up.  That's what the open interest in the options is telling me.  They're not going to announce it, you just have to pay attention on your own.  A drop back to 24.5 would be a gift and I don't think that's going to happen.  The technical indicators remain overbought but that means nothing in rallies like this.  You'll know it's over when you see gold on the news at night and how much it has gone up.  That will be what the smart money needs to dump what they've got to the latecomers.  Should be in September.  Mentally I'm all over the place with health issues at the forefront.  But the market doesn't care.  I do say that a lot but it's important that you know and deal with the truth.  Money is moving around and being made and lost by the players.  It doesn't matter who you are or how much you've got.  The game itself is bigger than that.  So your personal issues, health, etc. don't affect the prices of the markets.  At this point it appears the Fed is going to continue to flood the market with cheap money which will keep the rally going.  The decline will come when that stops.  Perhaps earnings won't pan out in the near term but that remains to be seen.  The technical indicators remain overbought on the S&P but in rallies they stay that way.  The NASDAQ hit a new all time high today.  The summer rally lives on.  Asia was mixed and Europe a bit lower in last nights trade.  We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

Just got out of the hospital.  Recovering from surgery yesterday.  The market doesn't care about our individual issues.  Will have the blog up and running again as soon as possible.

Had a medical issue and went to the emergency room yesterday.  Once again health must take precedent over the market.  The Dow did rise 170 points on light volume, so the McClellan oscillator signal was valid.  I did not expect such a large price movement on a shortened session before a holiday.  New all time highs for some of the indices and there is no overhead resistance.  I'll have more tomorrow after the jobs report.  Rest and recovery for me now.

The Dow drifted higher today and gained 69 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is moving up.  Not a lot to say about todays price action.  To me, it has the feel of sideways before moving higher for the Dow.  The S&P 500 set another new high today.  We did get a signal for a strong move in the McClellan oscillator last night.  However today doesn't fulfill that and tomorrow is a shortened session.  So it appears the signal is invalid this time around.  The VIX continued lower today and that means complacency is rampant.  It also can mean higher prices in the near term as well.  The Bollinger bands did not contain things here.  GE was flat and volume was light.  Gold gained back all that it lost yesterday.  The US dollar was slightly lower.  The XAU and GDX also rebounded to the extent of yesterdays losses.  Quite impressive I might add.  Volume was good.  Money is flowing into the precious metals complex.  Calls are in order if a chance comes up.  I see more money is flowing into the September GDX contracts, so that is probably where things are set up to be profitable.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Holiday mode is here and we're just waiting for the jobs number on Friday at this point.  I'm guessing that prices will rally regardless of the report unless it is something way out of the ordinary.  I do think that waiting until next week to do something is probably in order as well.  I am really a believer in the gold shares even more so after todays price action.  I may have to go higher on the strike price though because there seems to be no getting back to oversold territory.  I'll remain patient for this week at least.  Europe and Asia were higher overnight.  Short session tomorrow here in the US and then an off Thursday for the 4th.  Simply waiting for the employment report.

Well we made it through the weekend unscathed and the Dow rose 117 points on good volume today.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is moving up.  The US/China meeting didn't really do anything but it was better than more tariffs.  So the market rallied.  We did finish well off of the highs for the day but at least it was positive.  Volume was good and that's a plus.  It's a short holiday week with an early close on Wednesday.  Thursday the US markets will be closed.  If not for the employment report on Friday, most traders would take the rest of the week off.  We did hit another new all time high for the S&P 500 today but now I don't know how much further we can go in the near term.  We are now right at the top of the Bollinger band there.  I'm not bearish here but we'll probably be in a holding pattern waiting on the jobs report.  GE was up 1/8 on light volume.  Gold took a beating today as it doesn't like peaceful resolutions.  The gold futures fell $27 as the US dollar was sharply higher.  The XAU dropped 2 7/8, while GDX lost almost a point.  Volume was heavy.  This fits in with the scenario of falling back to the breakout point for the gold shares.  That would be 23.5 for GDX and the spot to try the longer term calls there if you're so inclined.  I myself would like to try them if all goes according to plan.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX dropped a full point today and has pierced the lower Bollinger band.  That is usually the spot where things would turn around.  This implies some volatility retuning to the marketplace in the near term.  I'm not so sure that will happen given the holiday week time frame.  But it's something to keep an eye on.  I myself will be keeping an eye on the gold shares and looking for an entry point.  More downside would be a plus as it would shake out whoever chased the recent move higher.  There's always the chance that my idea for the gold shares here is completely wrong as well.  However I am a believer in price and volume.  The recent move up had those requirements.  Europe and Asia were both higher overnight.  We'll see how things go tonight.