Thursday, April 10, 2014
Stocks got crushed today as the Dow fell 266 points on good volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative. No reasons for the sell off and that does not bode well for the future. The summation index has turned back down again. 1840 was the key level for the S&P 500 in my mind and we have now closed below it. Lower prices to come. I had thoughts of getting some OEX puts this morning but didn't do it. My hesitation and lack of trading skill appeared once again. You simply cannot stay on the sidelines forever. Yesterdays strong buying of equity calls was a clue that things got bullish too fast. 1800 is a nice round number for initial support on the S&P 500. The 200 day moving average would be next. GE was off 1/3 and the volume picked up. Heading lower from here probably as well. Gold held up well and the futures gained $12. The US dollar was yet lower again today. The XAU followed the broader market lower, off 1 1/2. ABX and NEM had fractional losses, while GG fell a buck on stock specific news. Bearish candlestick patterns now for the gold shares unless things turn around tomorrow. Volume was heavy for GG, average for the rest. Perhaps I'll try the May ABX calls after all but not until next week perhaps if I do. Mentally I'm feeling OK. We may just see this market get ugly, even after todays negative price action. Five days left until expiration and it's possible that things will run down into that. It is a time to be cautious in my humble opinion. Gold has moved up in the past two weeks but the move hasn't been dramatic. Volume for gold hasn't been heavy either. Same action in the gold shares. If the gold shares roll over here as well, I may try the May ABX calls. If not, I'll have to look for something else. Overall the trend in the stock market has rolled over and rallies should be looked at as a chance to purchase puts. We'll see if the foreign markets follow the Dow lower overnight. Then close out the trading week tomorrow.
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