Wednesday, April 30, 2014
Still pushing higher as the Dow gained 45 points on good volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The Fed had no surprises and the GDP report came out weaker than expected. We opened lower and finished higher and that is a plus. The summation index should be moving back to the upside after todays action. Overbought and staying there on the short term technicals. If the employment report is in line, I expect that we will hit a new all time high for the Dow. Start of the month tomorrow and perhaps we will see some positive money flows. GE was up 1/8 and the volume was light here as well. Gold was flat on the futures and dropped $5 in the aftermarket. This, despite a weak day for the US dollar. The fact that gold could not rally with a weak dollar is not good news for the bulls. The XAU was off 2/3. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on light volume. The earnings for ABX did not result in much movement for the stock. My May ABX calls are now in the red. This trade is beginning to take on the traits of a loser. ABX needs a catalyst to move and if the earnings can't get things going, I don't know what will. Over two weeks to go in the May cycle but I don't know if I can wait that long. Perhaps the employment report can get the gold shares moving. However there isn't any interest in gold right now. Mentally I'm feeling tired, did not sleep well. I'm still looking for higher prices near term for the stock indexes but not feeling overly bullish with the under performance of the small stocks. The news for stocks wasn't exactly bullish but we rallied anyway. That is a good sign for the bulls. But we'll have to see what the reaction to the employment report is. Gold is going nowhere fast. The XAU is moving sideways as well. I don't know what will break us out of this malaise. ABX is right at an up trend line on the weekly chart that is about a year old. A break of this line would be bearish. I'm counting on this area to provide support but that doesn't mean that it will. Tonight is a holiday for many of the overseas markets. The price action in the markets will be muted. We'll start the month of May tomorrow.
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