Tuesday, August 20, 2013
We tried to rally on the Dow but fell apart in the final half hour. The most watched index lost 7 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive though. The overall market was much stronger than the Dow as well. We were overdue for a bounce and if this is all we get, the stock indices are truly in trouble. The summation index continues lower. The McClellan oscillator got very oversold and below -300 yesterday. I am still a believer in getting some September OEX puts but the premiums didn't lower much today. Fed minutes due tomorrow and that should be the story for the session. I'd still advise caution at this juncture. GE was off another 1/8 and we have broken the up trend line that has been in effect since late April. Volume was light here. There is stronger, longer term support for GE at $23. Gold was up $7 on the futures as the US dollar had a weak day. The XAU gained 3 1/2 and outperformed the metal once again. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on light volume. I do think that we need to digest the recent gains in the gold shares. Some consolidation would be a positive moving forward. But I could be wrong. Perhaps gold will collapse with the overall market, if that occurs. The technicals for gold and the gold shares are short term overbought. Mentally I'm feeling OK. We're still in a light volume summer mode but the tone of the market is negative. I'm thinking that we will hopefully get some kind of snap back rally to get short. The pros that have been on vacation need a chance to establish positions. But the market will go where it wants. I'm guessing much lower from here. Gold is hanging in there, still above $1350. I'm looking for $1400 in the near term. The foreign markets had a rough night yesterday. We'll watch the markets reaction to the Fed minutes tomorrow and hopefully see some upside.
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