Tuesday, August 06, 2013
Some downside today as the Dow fell 93 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is now moving lower with some conviction. Rallies can be shorted from here on out in my humble opinion. We do have negative divergences in place for some of the stock indices. I would still like to go out to the September OEX puts but it looks like August could work too. We'll see if the market gives us a chance to get short with a little snap back rally in the next couple of days. A move back up towards the zero line on the McClellan oscillator would be a bonus. GE was off about 1/4 on very low volume. Low volume equals no interest. It is a summertime trading environment. Gold fell despite a drop in the US dollar. The precious metal futures dropped below $1300 to $1282. The XAU lost almost 5 points. ABX off 3/4, GG shed 1 3/8 and NEM slid 1 7/8. My October ABX calls are right back to about where I purchased them. Obviously they should have been dumped when showing a decent profit. The technicals for the gold shares have rolled over and it looks like lower prices are coming. We may be in the seasonal time of strength for gold but if the markets start to tank, gold will go along for the ride. Mentally I'm feeling frustrated. I had a nice profit in the ABX call trade and now it is gone. I can't say I was greedy but I had the idea to sell them at a profit and then buy them back but I did not follow through. Still plenty of time for that trade but I don't like the prognosis. Gold is dead money. It would have to turn around before the end of the week and I don't see that happening. The stock indices look like they are ready to roll over here. We'll see if we get any follow through tomorrow. There's also a chance that we go into a sideways period as well. If that is the case it will pay to be patient when considering the stock index puts. The game is rarely easy. I'll need to focus and also clear my head of the ongoing ABX trade to have any chance of putting on another trade. We'll keep an eye on developments this evening and take it from there.
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