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Monday, August 19, 2013

Continuing lower as the Dow fell 70 points to start the week.  The advance/declines were almost 5 to 1 negative and the volume was light.  Oversold, staying there and that is not a good sign.  We should have seen a bounce by now.  The stock indices are on the verge of simply falling apart in my opinion.  There may not be a bounce to buy the September OEX puts.  We are heading towards the zero line in the summation index.  It is getting to be a dangerous situation for the bulls.  We will need to turn things around in a hurry.  Conditions for a collapse are present.  It isn't everyday that you can say that.  Extreme caution is advised.  GE was off 1/8 on average volume.  Still holding the 50 day moving average here.  Gold was off $5 on the futures and was $15 lower than the overnight highs.  Some consolidation here is expected.  The US dollar index was off just a touch.  The XAU fell almost 2 points.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on light volume.  If the stock market falls apart here, I expect the gold shares will go with it.  The gold shares are due a rest after the recent run up as well.  We'll possibly see some decent price action after the Fed minutes on Wednesday.  That's a guess as usual.  Mentally I'm a bit concerned that I won't be able to take advantage of the negative price action, after waiting for it for so long.  But chasing things on the way down isn't the greatest strategy.  So I'll wait for a bounce.  Gold is due for a rest.  If we can get through this week without a major drop, that would be a plus.  I will say that these are interesting times in the marketplace.  The summer doldrums are over in my opinion.  We'll once again see if the foreign markets follow the US lower tonight.  Maybe we'll see some buyers tomorrow. 

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