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Friday, October 12, 2012

We closed the week with a whimper as the Dow gained just 2 points on pretty light volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 negative, the opposite of yesterday.  Summation index heading lower.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow.  Short term oversold and a bounce is overdue.  The S&P 500 is trying to hold its 50 day moving average on a daily basis.  The Dow as well is trying to hold on here but it has broken the uptrend line that began in June.  The over the counter markets remain above their uptrend lines.  It's a mixed bag but we are oversold and expiration week is coming up with its usual upside bias.  GE was flat and the volume was light.  It's possible that we are trying to put in a short term bottom here at around 22.50.  Gold was weaker on the day as the futures fell over $10.  The US dollar was weaker as well.  The XAU dropped 3 3/8.  ABX off 7/8, GG lost 2/3 and NEM down 3/8.  Volume was very light.  I canceled the open order for the November ABX calls and left in the order for the ABX January calls.  I may try the November calls again next week.  Earnings for ABX are due on November 1st.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, could have slept better.  The weekly chart for the S&P 500 now has a bearish engulfing candlestick and the technicals have rolled over.  Perhaps we'll see some more weakness next week but I do believe that we will see some type of bounce first.  I could be wrong and often am.  I'm choosing not to take any risk there for now though.  I could change my mind over the weekend.  I still like gold for higher prices going forward but if the overall market falls here, the gold shares will probably follow.  I don't have any problem going out to January with the options.  But like anything else, it's just a guess.  I'm willing to take the chance here though.  The gold share weekly candlestick charts look bearish here as well, with the exception of NEM.  I'll have to double check the charts over the weekend.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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