Friday, October 26, 2012
The stock market tried to sell off today but didn't as the Dow gained a mere 3 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. We've moved sideways for 3 days and I think we are going higher. We're still short term oversold. My gut feeling is that if we were going to continue lower, we would have already. When the market is in a decent decline, it doesn't hang around for 3 days. It falls and we haven't, even though there has been plenty of bad earnings lately. The GDP report was better than expected but this is a number that will be revised a couple of times. I'm not saying that we will go to new yearly highs but we should rally in the beginning of next week. GE lost 1/8 on average volume. Oversold here as well. No trades in mind at the moment. The gold futures as well as the US dollar were flat on the day. The XAU lost 1 3/8. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on light volume. I've left in the open order for the January ABX calls. The earnings for ABX are due on November 1st. I believe that I will need to make the purchase ahead of the earnings if GG was any type of indicator. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The stock indices have had every reason to fall after Tuesdays drop and they haven't. That's bullish moving forward. The summation index is still heading down but that could change with one decent up day. We should see higher stock prices in the beginning of next week. The employment report on Friday should be the next major mover. Gold has been in a downtrend for the month of October. The gold shares have basically moved sideways in the same time period. I will be trying to get some ABX calls at a good premium in the beginning of next week. I would like to go out to January because the weekly chart here shows a potentially bullish head and shoulders pattern. Potential because it hasn't happened yet and may not. I may just get the near month for the earnings report but the risk would be much higher. We'll see. Plenty to think about over the weekend. For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.
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