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Tuesday, October 23, 2012

There was no upside follow through as the Dow fell 243 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were about 3 to 1 negative.  After yesterdays nice comeback, the stock indices just could not hold up.  We are short term oversold here, so a bounce tomorrow would not be out of the question.  The Dow transports actually were higher on the day.  The breadth of the market wasn't so bad either considering the magnitude of the decline.  The summation index continues lower though.  Rising trend lines on many of the stock indices have been broken.  We're heading lower and perhaps sideways is the best we can hope for near term.  GE fell another 3/8 and the volume was good.  This chart has broken down and that doesn't bode well for the overall market.  No trades in mind here.  Gold fell today as well on a stronger US dollar.  The precious metal futures dropped over $15.  The XAU fell 5 2/3.  ABX off 3/8, GG lost 1 1/8 and NEM led the way down, weaker by 1 2/3.  Volume was light.  ABX held up considerably well with todays market sell off.  I still have in an open order for the January calls here but I may have to adjust it to get filled.  The option premiums are staying quite high for the ABX January series, which tells me that this idea may actually work.  We'll see.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The tone of the game here has changed.  We are heading lower on the S&P 500, perhaps to 1400 or 1380 in my view.  Anything below that and we could be in big trouble.  I don't see that happening.  Gold is getting close to the $1700 level and it will be important to hold that in my opinion.  Might get there tomorrow.  We've got the Fed tomorrow but there really isn't much to expect from that this time.  I could be wrong.  We'll see how the overseas markets react to todays decline and go from there.

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