Wednesday, May 04, 2011
Weakness as expected with the Dow down 84 points on good volume. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 negative. The S&P 500 broke resistance at 1340 last week. Today we snapped back to that level. The next technical expectation would be a move back to the recent highs or above. That is what I would expect. If we break down from here that would change the situation and a new scenario would be expected. Stay tuned. Employment report out on Friday and that should be a catalyst one way or the other. GE fell 1/3 on average volume. GE is right at its 50 day moving average. We'll see if it holds. Gold got pummeled again, down $25. The XAU lost 1 1/3. The gold shares were mixed, with ABX off 1/2, GG fell 3/8 and NEM was up 1/4. Volume was good here. My open order for the ABX May calls was filled this morning. Had I waited another hour, I could have gotten them cheaper. But you never know actually what you will do under market conditions until it happens. Fortunately the options are at the price I purchased them. This is supposed to be a short term trade and I hope I keep it that way. ABX is trying to hold at its 200 day moving average. The Gold/XAU ratio is still at a buy signal. I do feel that this trade has a chance to work. We'll see. The dollar didn't move much today and has been moving sideways. Still very oversold here. Mentally I feel OK, slept well enough. So another trade is on and I feel like this one at least has a chance. The entry could have been much better. I'll have to try and time the exit properly. I don't think if we get some upside in ABX that it is the beginning of a sustained move higher. A base would most likely have to form for a sustained move to happen. The stock indices should hold in here and move sideways to higher if my prognosis is correct. Tomorrow should be a holding pattern waiting for Friday. We'll see what happens.
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