Monday, May 16, 2011
We started the week off with a thud as the Dow fell 43 points on light volume. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. The overall market was much weaker than the Dow. The summation index has rolled over. We are oversold, so a bounce would not be out of the question. However we have broken the daily uptrend line from March on the S%P 500. I believe the trend is changing to the downside here. We'll see. GE was down a bit on light volume. We are at the lower end of the recent trading range in GE. A breakout to the downside would confirm the down trend in the stock indices in my view. Gold lost $3 and the XAU was flat. ABX, GG and NEM had fractional gains on average volume. The gold shares were higher early. The dollar was lower today. The gold shares held up better than the stock market today. I did place an order for some GG June calls. I am leaving the order good until canceled. The price I am looking for is at least half of what they are trading for today. We are oversold on the gold shares. The Gold/XAU ratio is still very much in the buy zone. If there is weakness in the overall stock market, it should carry over to the gold shares. If I can get the price I want for these options, I'm willing to take the risk. We'll see. Mentally I'm feeling OK. 4 days left in the May option cycle. I do not anticipate any short term trades this week. That could change of course. I'd expect some follow through to the downside in the stock indices tomorrow.
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