Wednesday, September 19, 2007
The Dow added another 76 points today on heavy volume. Advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive. We were higher earlier in the day and managed to hold on to a pretty good gain. I wanted to buy some OEX puts and had to fight myself to sit it out. There is still a chance that I will because I do believe that between now and the close on Friday there will be weakness. But the risk is very high and the timing must be exact. That's a tall order. Gold was higher by $5 today and remains very overbought. The XAU was up 1 1/3. ABX was unchanged on good volume, NEM was higher on heavy volume. I think the run in gold here needs to take a rest. I will be looking to get long on a pullback though. But like the overall market, we are so overbought that a decline is in the offing. GE was up a touch on good volume. Again, it's overbought and has been. Conditions like these don't go on forever. Of course things could remain propped up for the expiration. But sooner or later overbought conditions need to be worked off. Everyone is bullish now so you have to look the other way. Mentally I did not sleep good and am battling myself. As always the real conflict lies within the trader. It isn't easy to do the right thing but that's what must be done. The discipline required is tough to do sometimes. Right now is one of those times for me. I do believe some money can be made here before the end of the week. But it won't be easy...
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