Tuesday, July 17, 2007
The Dow was up 20 points on good volume. Advance/declines were negative. We are overbought but there is no reason we can't stay that way. However the overall market hasn't kept up with the Dow here. Sooner or later, somethings got to give. We crossed 14000 and I thought they would do what they could to close above there. It didn't happen. There are some earnings that came in after the bell and the market is selling off after hours. It's possible that a bull trap has formed on the indices. It is too early to tell. It sure looked like a valid breakout when we left the trading range. Gold was little changed and so were the gold shares. The inflation data was mixed. The dollar didn't do much either. We have either formed a short term top in the XAU here or it is a pause before we head higher. It's overbought and I'd like to see a pullback to get long but the market doesn't usually do what you want. GE continued higher and it is overextended. The daily chart has pushed through the upper Bollinger band and is still climbing. You can't plan on that happening very often. The volume is good though and it usually portends good things for the overall market. GE also is probably experiencing a bit of expiration levitation. Of calls the calls I had are worth more then I sold them for but holding them this long was not the plan. Perhaps it should have been. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Sometimes one of the toughest things to do in the game is to remain patient. You don't always have to be trading. Pick your spots. To do this though, there are times when you have to step aside and wait for a decent set-up. I am trying to do that now. We'll see what happens. Tomorrow I have to leave the markets early for an outside commitment. The post will be early or late or maybe not at all. It is the summer...
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