Wednesday, July 25, 2007
The Dow as up 68 points on extremely heavy volume. Advance/declines were negative again and that's a problem. Don't exactly have a good feel for what's happening at the moment. Sideways would be a plus but I really don't know at this point. It's not as oversold as it could get. The premiums in the OEX options are much higher with the volatility. Sidelines there for now. Gold lost $11 as the dollar had an up day for a change. The XAU lost a couple of points but was down much more earlier. I picked up some NEM calls as it has been holding up a bit better then ABX lately. It too came back from earlier heavy losses. But the fundamental picture could be changing here with regards to the dollar. We are at the important level of 80 there and it appears to want to hold it for now. The technicals are blown out to the downside and have been for some time. I don't think a rally is imminent but the downside could be done for now. That said, money came into the gold shares when they sold off and the earnings are out next week. We'll see what happens. GE kind of hung around all day and ended higher. I still think this is overbought and will be looking to get some puts. Perhaps. Mentally I did not get a good nights sleep but continue to do the work that is necessary. My picture of the market isn't as clear as I'd like it and we could be heading to a danger zone. However with the end of the month coming up there should be some money flows coming in. After that it gets trickier. Technically we could go either way here but I don't think a collapse is in the cards right away. I also don't see any rally to new highs anytime soon. There is something going on here though...
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