The Dow lost 146 points today to close out the month. Volume was extremely heavy again. The advance/declines were slightly negative which was about the only positive thing for the day. We opened higher and closed lower and that is usually not a good thing. We got to the recent down trend line and sold off. If we can get a blow-off down day I'll look at the OEX calls. But it hasn't happened yet. Gold was up a couple bucks but the XAU lost a point. ABX and NEM both were up early along with the market and closed near their lows. I don't think the earnings will help at this point. Not in this type of market but we'll see. GE down another half on average volume. Again, I have a target in mind here to get long but we're nowhere near it yet. And so it goes. Mentally I'm doing what I can to stay positive in a negative trade. There are no illusions of a profit here so that's a plus. As for the overall market it would have to hold here tomorrow to turn the short term positive. Doesn't look like that will happen but who knows? Maybe the money flows can keep it up for a couple of days. But the market will do what it does. I'll keep an eye on it...

The Dow snapped back 92 points today on heavy volume. However the volume was much lighter then last week when it was extraordinary. Advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive. The McClellan oscillator was at a -344 on Friday. It rarely gets that negative and a rebound always ensues. I was hoping for a washout down move this morning to get long. It didn't happen. That said, the quality of this rally stinks and I do believe prices will be heading lower. I could be wrong. If we continue with a weak rally I'll look for OEX puts. If we have a washout down day, I'll look for OEX calls. Gold was up $4 and the XAU rose 5 points. ABX was up good but NEM didn't rise as much. The relative strength perhaps has moved back to ABX and that won't help the NEM calls I own. Earnings for both out on Thursday. The volume today wasn't that great. I'm not a believer here either unless I see some better volume. We'll see. GE was up a half in sympathy with the overall market. I'm probably not going to do anything here until we get back to the up trend line. Mentally I'm doing fine. I checked the older charts of the McClellan oscillator and summation index to get a better handle of what might happen here. We really need to see some good strength to the upside or we are gonna go lower regardless. However I think we are eventually setting up for a good longer term buy point. But we probably aren't there yet. As for the NEM trade, it isn't going to work. Once the earnings come out, that's it. I will try and cut the loss if possible but I need to exit this week. At least that's the thinking right now. This is a time to pay close attention to what is going on and act accordingly...

Another 208 points to the downside today. We are in the fall apart mode. It doesn't happen often and I missed it. We closed on the low of the day. I'd be afraid of Monday at this point. Advance/declines were only 2 to 1 negative and the volume was extremely heavy. I was almost dumb enough to buy some OEX calls today. Didn't do it. It looks like 680 isn't going to hold for the OEX. Gold was down 2 and change. ABX and NEM both dropped about another 3/4. The XAU lost 2 1/2. I own NEM calls during a market meltdown. Probably should have sold them as soon as I bought them. There will be a snap back rally at some point but it might be from such lower levels that it won't matter. The dollar was stronger again today on the GDP and flight to quality so the fundamental picture for gold has changed with regards to the dollar. Earnings next week? Like I said before in an environment like this they probably won't matter. GE was down on good volume. Did I mention that I was looking at the puts? Didn't get any but the weekly chart is now breaking down. The support is around $38 I think and at this rate we'll be through it next week. Mentally I'm trying not to get too down on myself since there is so much time before August expiration and there will be money to be made. Not in anything I'm holding at the moment but for trades down the road. We're in a time for the markets that doesn't happen often. But when it does unless you're on it right away, it's best to just step aside. There are things going on that aren't explained in the charts and the indicators that you normally use. We are deeply oversold and staying there and that means lower prices. The selling will stop at some point but when that point is, who knows? It could be on Monday for all I know but I don't. It will bounce at some point. But for now it's the weekend so I'll try to relax and take a break...

The Dow got slammed again, down 311 points. Advance/declines were 10 to 1 negative. The volume numbers I'm getting are incredible so I will wait to see if they are correct. Is the decline over? Who knows? I guess the collapse started before I thought it would. That said we are blown out to the downside. There is support for the OEX at 680, today we got to 682. If 680 doesn't hold then the real downside will begin. My guess is that it will hold for now and break later but that is just a guess. Something is going on as there is a worldwide liquidation in progress. Everything gets sold. We'll see what happens. Gold got killed again, down over $11. NEM lost 1 3/4, ABX 1 1/4 and the XAU off 6. The calls I bought got slammed. Normally I'd just dump them but these aren't normal times. We'll get some type of snap back in the next few days and I'll cut the loss. This trade isn't going to work, I don't think the earnings matter anymore due to the market we are in at the moment. But you never know. GE was down on heavy volume. But everything was down. Mentally I'm doing OK. There will be trading opportunities galore for the August cycle. Capitalizing on them will be another story. There's no summer vacation this year, that's for sure. So we'll see what happens. I'll be looking for a snap back rally in the next couple of days because we are that blown out. What happens after that will be the key. Hopefully we'll hold up but there are no guarantees. It won't be boring, that's for sure...

The Dow as up 68 points on extremely heavy volume. Advance/declines were negative again and that's a problem. Don't exactly have a good feel for what's happening at the moment. Sideways would be a plus but I really don't know at this point. It's not as oversold as it could get. The premiums in the OEX options are much higher with the volatility. Sidelines there for now. Gold lost $11 as the dollar had an up day for a change. The XAU lost a couple of points but was down much more earlier. I picked up some NEM calls as it has been holding up a bit better then ABX lately. It too came back from earlier heavy losses. But the fundamental picture could be changing here with regards to the dollar. We are at the important level of 80 there and it appears to want to hold it for now. The technicals are blown out to the downside and have been for some time. I don't think a rally is imminent but the downside could be done for now. That said, money came into the gold shares when they sold off and the earnings are out next week. We'll see what happens. GE kind of hung around all day and ended higher. I still think this is overbought and will be looking to get some puts. Perhaps. Mentally I did not get a good nights sleep but continue to do the work that is necessary. My picture of the market isn't as clear as I'd like it and we could be heading to a danger zone. However with the end of the month coming up there should be some money flows coming in. After that it gets trickier. Technically we could go either way here but I don't think a collapse is in the cards right away. I also don't see any rally to new highs anytime soon. There is something going on here though...

Whatever happened to the summer doldrums? The Dow got clobbered today, down 226 points. Advance/declines were almost 10 to 1 negative. Volume was extremely heavy. We are blown out on the short term here. So I would be surprised if we were down another 200 tomorrow. The financials and the brokers have all broken their longer term uptrend lines. That doesn't bode well going forward. I'll be looking to short things. Gold gained $3 but the XAU lost almost 3 points. That's a change. We closed right at the uptrend line for the XAU that has been in effect for the last 4 weeks. NEM was actually up on the day and I'm thinking of putting in an order for calls overnight. ABX lost about a quarter. The dollar broke to fresh lows but it can't keep going down forever. The XAU really needs a rest here too. Earnings out next week for ABX and NEM. GE was down about a half today but it was holding up pretty well early. I'm still looking at getting the puts there. Perhaps we'll build a better top there. But it is overbought on the weekly chart and should begin to roll over. Mentally I'm doing OK. I would expect the market to not go into free fall here but I could be wrong. It's only Tuesday. The summation index is on its way to the zero line. If it goes through the market will collapse. I'm not saying that is going to happen anytime soon but when we get down close to it, you've got to be aware of what might occur. We are still far enough away that there is nothing to worry about at the moment. But it has to be respected. I'm thinking with the end of the month and the beginning of August, the market will hold up here. After that?

The Dow gained 92 points today on pretty good volume. As often happens, the day after expiration does the opposite of the expiration itself. Advance/declines were negative though and that isn't a good sign for the bullish case. The OEX options are expensive with the new cycle beginning but I would expect to see weakness in the markets at some point this week and tomorrow wouldn't surprise me. Gold lost 3 bucks and the XAU was about unchanged. ABX didn't do much but it refuses to go down at this point. It is way overbought. NEM had some bad quotes today, a vendor problem I'm guessing. Perhaps it will sort itself out overnight. The gold shares really need to take a rest but the money keeps flowing into them. We'll see what happens. GE was up again today on good volume. This issue also is overbought especially on a weekly basis. I'm looking at the puts for August. Perhaps should have bought them today. Mentally it's a bit of a challenge at this point. There aren't really any clear signals with the exception of the summation index which is pointing down. I'm inclined to go with that but the money inflows continue. There's no hurry to do anything but you can't be sure. It is a time to be perhaps a bit more cautious. Preservation of capital must always remain at the forefront. There will be better signals down the road as there always are. We shall see.

The Dow lost about 150 points today on expiration heavy volume. Advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative. The summation index has rolled over and is heading down. That said, it's hard to say that today is the beginning of an extended downturn. Options expiration tends to skew things on Fridays. But that doesn't mean that a top hasn't formed here or is forming. Time will tell. Gold tacked on another 6 bucks but the XAU was only up a 1/4. Usually that means some weakness in gold coming up near term. However the gold shares have been on a tear and there seems to be no stopping them. They are extremely overbought. With a down 150 market today they held up considerably well. ABX continues higher, NEM took a slight rest. They won't go up forever but the money continues to flow into the gold shares. I have waited for a pullback that never came and the tendency is to just get in. However I will see what next week brings and the earnings a week after that. The dollar has remained very oversold as well which has led to this parabolic rise in the gold shares I believe. These trends won't go on forever. That said I still think there will be some money to be made there. Timing, as always, is the key. GE lost ground today and I'm now looking at the puts there. The weekly chart has gone about as far as it will go here. I could be wrong but I have started looking there. Mentally I'm a bit tired without a good nights sleep. I'll need to check things out over the weekend. But it is the summer and I plan on taking it easy too.

We managed to close at the 14000 level with the Dow gaining 82 points. Volume was heavy and the advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive. It's been a pretty good summer so far. I'm on the sidelines with the OEX. Gold was up 4 bucks and the gold shares continue this incredible run. The XAU gained over 3 1/2 points. ABX and NEM were both higher on good volume. If and when there is a pullback you can get long these issues. Perhaps next week as things don't usually go straight up forever. GE tacked on another 1/4 on average volume. More earnings after the bell which should set the tone for tomorrow and it's expiration Friday. Mentally I'm feeling OK. There isn't much to do now with the next option cycle beginning on Monday. Just keep an eye on things and see what happens. ABX and NEM are out with earnings the week after next. Perhaps want to be long before. NEM also looks like it is finally breaking out of the multi-week down trend line. The options are pricey though. And these issues are over extended. But things can remain overbought for quite some time. We'll see.

The Dow lost 53 points on heavy volume. Advance/declines were negative. We did come back strong in the last hour and we are also now oversold. Perhaps we will get some more buying into the expiration. I don't know. Gold was up $8 and the gold shares took off. ABX skyrocketed 1 3/4 on extremely heavy volume. It never did pull back. NEM was up over a point on heavy volume. There is money coming into the gold shares in a big way. If they ever do take a breather you can go ahead and buy the calls. The XAU has broken out and was up over 5 points. GE lost 20 cents today but was down more then that early. Mentally it's hard to watch the gold shares keep going up but there will be money to be made there regardless. I just have to be patient. The battle is always with yourself.

The Dow was up 20 points on good volume. Advance/declines were negative. We are overbought but there is no reason we can't stay that way. However the overall market hasn't kept up with the Dow here. Sooner or later, somethings got to give. We crossed 14000 and I thought they would do what they could to close above there. It didn't happen. There are some earnings that came in after the bell and the market is selling off after hours. It's possible that a bull trap has formed on the indices. It is too early to tell. It sure looked like a valid breakout when we left the trading range. Gold was little changed and so were the gold shares. The inflation data was mixed. The dollar didn't do much either. We have either formed a short term top in the XAU here or it is a pause before we head higher. It's overbought and I'd like to see a pullback to get long but the market doesn't usually do what you want. GE continued higher and it is overextended. The daily chart has pushed through the upper Bollinger band and is still climbing. You can't plan on that happening very often. The volume is good though and it usually portends good things for the overall market. GE also is probably experiencing a bit of expiration levitation. Of calls the calls I had are worth more then I sold them for but holding them this long was not the plan. Perhaps it should have been. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Sometimes one of the toughest things to do in the game is to remain patient. You don't always have to be trading. Pick your spots. To do this though, there are times when you have to step aside and wait for a decent set-up. I am trying to do that now. We'll see what happens. Tomorrow I have to leave the markets early for an outside commitment. The post will be early or late or maybe not at all. It is the summer...

The Dow gained 43 points on average volume. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. Which was strange but it is options expiration week. We are pushing to 14000 on the Dow. Inflation data is out the next 2 days. I don't think we will see much on the consumer side. Not sure about tomorrows producer number. Gold lost a buck today and the XAU shed 1 1/2. Both ABX and NEM lost some ground and the volume was decent. I am looking at the calls there. GE was up about a half today and that helped the Dow. Volume there was OK but we are really getting extended in that issue. I'm not looking to short GE but it is due for a rest. That said, it's also possible that it could get one last rise in expiration week before it takes a rest. But that's a guessing game. Mentally I had a good nights sleep and have a general idea of what the next trade will be. Whether or not the markets cooperate is another story. There are a lot of earnings coming out this week and we haven't seen the usual summer doldrums yet. Perhaps we won't this year...

The Dow tacked on another 45 points on average volume. Advance/declines were slightly positive. We got some follow through and that was to be expected. Gold was off a buck today and the XAU gained about a third. ABX was up a touch on light volume. NEM was up a third on good volume. The gold shares are due for a rest, perhaps next week. GE was higher, at one point up over a dollar. It closed up a half on very heavy volume. I dumped the calls I bought yesterday but it wasn't a good trade. About 15% overnight but it wasn't worth the risk. I think I only did the trade because the market was up big yesterday and I wanted to get something for myself. True, the earnings were coming out and I expected it to rise but it wasn't the type of trade that I normally look for. The risk in these type of trades is just way too high. If you are wrong you can easily lose 50% or more overnight. I will try and stay away from such trades in the future. Yes, it is nice to be paid for paying attention but the gains are only worth it if you're trading big sums of money. And these types of trades aren't worth committing huge sums of money to. You always have to protect yourself from yourself in the game. Stick to the game plan. Mentally I was up early just to scalp the GE trade and therefore was not as alert the rest of the trading day. Expiration week is coming up. For now it's the weekend but there is work to do going over the charts and coming up with the next trade for August. However I will take a break as it is needed...

The Dow broke out to new all time highs today, up 283 points. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive and the volume was heavy. We have broken out of a multi-week consolidation in the indices and will be going higher. In retrospect, Tuesdays sell-off was the end of the selling. It got rid of all the rest of the sellers. The same thing happened in the gold shares 2 weeks ago. Speaking of which, the XAU was up almost 5 points today. Gold itself was up $6. ABX was up 80 cents on good volume and even NEM was higher. The volume on NEM was extremely heavy today as it rose almost a buck. I think it might be ready to take out that weekly downtrend line soon. I am looking at the August calls there now. However, the relative strength remains with ABX. If we ever get a pullback there, I'm long. Perhaps next week but the way this thing has taken off, who knows? GE wasn't moving with the overall market early on. The earnings are out tomorrow. Late in the day it started to move higher. I bought some July calls. This is another short term scalp trade that I really don't feel comfortable with but I did it anyway. The market should follow through tomorrow to the upside and I'm thinking that GE will lead the way since it didn't do much today. I could be wrong. I did not put a lot of money in this trade because the risk is so high. If it doesn't work, I won't be surprised. But with the market moving like this, tomorrow should be a good day for the bulls. We'll see what happens. Mentally, I am feeling a bit frustrated for not catching the gold share move. I'm sure there will be another chance to hop on board in the next couple of weeks but I would already like to be there. I am also a bit tired due to not a good nights sleep. The summer is usually a slow time for the markets but that is not the case this year so far. We'll see what tomorrow brings...

The Dow came back 76 points today on average volume. Advance/declines were only slightly positive though. But we didn't follow through to the downside and that is a good sign for the bulls. I'm not looking to do anything with the OEX at this point. Gold was off a couple bucks and the XAU was basically unchanged due to strength in FCX. ABX pulled back a little but not enough for me to buy the calls. Volume there was decent. NEM got slammed again, down a buck on heavy volume. I thought we would get through the long term down trend line in NEM after last weeks positive action. But we have come right back down and that line remains in effect. GE was up today, 35 cents on good volume. The July calls did not get cheap enough for me today as we were down in this issue early. I think this is a trade that could work though with the earnings out on Friday. We held today right at the short term up trend line. Perhaps I will get some calls tomorrow but it really isn't my trading style. It would be another short term scalp type of trade. We'll see. Mentally everything is the same. I'm somewhat skeptical of todays rally but with expiration week coming up, the bias is to the upside. The only thing I have a firm conviction for are the gold calls. The rest is just too risky at the moment in my opinion. However that doesn't mean that I won't buy those GE calls tomorrow...

The Dow dropped 148 points today on heavy volume. Advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative. I expected a pullback but not like this. There were a couple of stock earnings warnings, Big Ben gave a speech and the sub-prime lending woes resurfaced. The summation index might be turning down again. I was looking at perhaps getting the GE calls for July. GE was off 3/4. It is getting oversold. If the earnings are decent on Friday, the calls might work. But a day like today kind of throws me for a loop. So I will probably stay on the sidelines there. Gold gained a couple bucks and the XAU was down a half. ABX remained strong and was up a bit on the day. NEM on the other hand was down 80 cents. The relative strength is with ABX. The fact is that the gold shares did not follow the market down as much today as it has in the past. Money is flowing into the gold shares. For whatever reasons. I think there will be money to be made on the calls for the gold shares. Even though they have had quite a nice run here. I will be getting long on any pullback. And who knows? Maybe I'll give GE a try. Mentally I feel OK, plenty of sleep last night. I am a bit concerned about today though. Perhaps there is a triple top on the indices. The overall market was weaker then the Dow today also. The last rally we just had wasn't good on the volume front. I thought we were going to new highs and we still could depending on how the rest of the week plays out. We'll have to see what kind of downside follow through we get tomorrow...

The Dow gained 38 points on average volume. Advance/declines were slightly positive. The overall market was weaker then the Dow. I'm pretty sure we are going to see a pullback here. I think we need a little rest before we move to new highs. That's my guess at the moment. Gold was up $7 today and the XAU rose another point and a half. The XAU has pretty much gone up in a straight line here and that can't last forever. I do think you can get long on a pullback and I most certainly will. There is money coming into the gold shares in a big way. NEM did not get the follow through that I was expecting. It ended up a quarter on good volume. It did better early in the day and that is when I dumped the calls purchased on Friday. This was a short term scalp type of trade that I really don't normally do. My entry could have been a lot better. But if you could make over 20% on your money every weekend, you would do it too. However opportunities like that don't show up every weekend. ABX rose a half on heavy volume. I think my next trade will involve August calls of that issue. We'll see. GE didn't do much again today. Earnings there on Friday. I'm tempted to buy some cheap out of the money calls but probably won't. I did look at some OEX puts today but I really think if we get a pullback, it will be short and shallow. Mentally I'm feeling OK. A bit tired but I have an idea of what I'm going to do. I really don't trade to just make 20% as the NEM trade just realized. So I'll be keeping an eye on things and see what the market has to say in the next 2 weeks before expiration.

The Dow rose 45 points today on light volume. Advance/declines were positive. The employment number was a bit stronger, interest rates rose a bit but we continued higher. We are due for a rest here. The market is overbought and I expect weakness early next week. That might set up for some OEX July calls. Maybe. The gold shares went crazy today. The XAU rose 4 and change on heavy volume. Gold itself was up around $4. There was positive news on NEM and it was up over $2 on extremely heavy volume. I bought some July NEM calls. This is probably going to be a quick trade for the expected follow through on Monday. The heavy volume tells me that institutions are loading up and this issue will go higher. We are now at a multi-week downtrend line that has lasted at least a year. My feeling is that we are about to break through and it could be next week. There are 2 weeks left on these options but I don't think I will be holding them that long. I will most likely exit on Monday and look to buy August calls if and when the gold shares pull back. If the overall market declines next week it should take the gold shares with it and that will possibly give me a chance to position for the August calls. But make no mistake, the volume came in the gold shares today and they are going higher now and in the future. That's my guess. GE was unchanged really and the volume was light there. However I am concentrating on the gold shares at the moment so GE is on the back burner. Mentally I'm doing OK. I think I am on to something profitable and that always puts yourself in a better frame of mind. I'm not what you'd call a "goldbug". I am just looking for what I perceive to be opportunities and trying to take advantage of them. My hope is that paying attention on a summer Friday will pay off...

The Dow lost 11 points on light volume. Advance/declines were negative. The overall market was better then the Dow. We sold off and came all the way back. This market has the feel of one that wants to go higher. Interest rates rose and the market held up pretty well. We'll see about the employment report. Gold was down around 4 bucks but the XAU continued to rise and was up 1 1/2. ABX gained a half. The volume here was light but the trend is up. In retrospect perhaps I should have chased this one. I still might pick up some calls if it ever pulls back. Gold was down, the dollar was firmer, interest rates rose and still the gold shares went higher. GE was down a little and the options are still too expensive for me. Mentally I'm a bit tired as I did not get a good nights sleep. I'm also frustrated for missing the ABX trade. But you have to move on. I was also thinking about getting some OEX calls but might wait until next week. There isn't a clear signal of overbought or oversold there. We're slightly overbought but not in the range of where I'd be looking at the puts. and so it goes...

In a holiday light volume session, the Dow gained 42 points. Advance/declines were positive. We are now slightly overbought but can stay there if the rally is for real. I do think we are going to new highs. Gold lost around 4 bucks today but the XAU only dipped slightly. I did have an overnight order in for the ABX July calls but it wasn't filled. The volume was light there as well. I'd much rather own the August options but they have moved away from me. I'll have to check the charts again tomorrow. GE was up about a third today. Again, the problem here is that we are in a holiday mode and the volume has dried up. The employment report is out on Friday and that should at least bring out some more money one way or the other. Mentally I'm doing OK and will be taking a break tonight into tomorrow afternoon. Not much else to do but enjoy the 4th...

The Dow rose 126 points today on summer Monday light volume. Advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive. We are going higher here most likely. The summation index has now turned to the upside. We will probably set new highs this month. We are getting the beginning of the month buying spurt. Tomorrow the markets will be closing early. If the market doesn't drop when we get terrorist attacks, it is going to go higher for whatever reasons. Gold was up 8 bucks today and the weekend overseas bombing had to help. The dollar was weaker today also. The XAU was up over 3 points and ABX tacked on another 3/4. Volume wasn't that great but it is the summer and a holiday week. I am thinking of getting the July calls for ABX at this point but it has moved pretty good since I was looking at it. I do not like to chase things but this could be one of those times when I do. We are not seeing any type of pull back in ABX. My thought here is that there are just no more sellers. It's risky, yes, but it just might pay off before expiration. We'll see. GE was basically unchanged and you would have liked to have seen it participate in a 126 point up day. The July calls still have a lot of premium in them. I'm on the sidelines there. Earnings are out at the end of next week. Mentally I'm feeling fine. What I need to do now is look for things to get long because higher is the way we are going. However with the holiday in the middle of the week, it skews things. Employment report out on Friday. Usually it is a big mover but it is summertime.