Tuesday, February 27, 2007
Well, so much for the OEX calls. Or, maybe not. We had an event today, the Dow down 416 points on the heaviest volume ever. It was a mini-crash. Advance/declines were over 6 to 1 negative. There was a sell-off in China and panic set in. There is something going on here and of course I can't possibly know what it is. Somebody does and it will all come out later I suppose. The put buying had been pretty good for about a week now. Usually that sets up for some type of rally and that is what I was looking for. However in retrospect it was the smart money knowing in advance what China was about to do. China made a reference to starting to charge capital gains taxes and away we went. Markets around the world plummeted. We will most likely see some follow through tomorrow. I am really looking at getting some OEX calls anyway because there will be a bounce. The trouble is you just don't know when it will happen. Tomorrow? Before the end of the week? Next week. Oh it will happen for sure, it's just a matter of when. I'll look at the charts tonight and probably buy some calls at some point this week. Tomorrow most likely unless it's a repeat of today. The volatility has spiked big time. Premiums for all the options are inflated. There is opportunity though. Gold was down only a couple of bucks through it all today but the XAU lost over 10 points. The volume was heavy as you can imagine. I did put in an order for some ABX calls in the last hour as things started to come back a bit in that issue. But I now see that gold is off over $20 in the aftermarket and that won't bode well for the gold shares tomorrow. I might have to re-think things here and go out to April. However there will be a snapback here as well, I just don't know when. So there is a lot to ponder tonight as I try to come up with a gameplan for the rest of the week. Mentally I'm doing OK for now. I'm a bit tired but I will need all my stamina to handle the goings on here for the rest of the week. Hopefully the McClellan oscillator will give some clues later this afternoon. Other technical indicators will be blown out by todays heavy negative action. I have seen things like this before. It is either going to be a quick shake-out type of event or the beginning of a major move down. The money flows at this time of year are positive so I really don't think this will be a drawn out affair. But you never know. There may well be things below the surface that haven't come to light yet. It will be interesting at any rate. There will also be opportunities for those able to take advantage of them. I will try to be one of those traders.
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