Tuesday, April 11, 2006
The Dow lost 51 points on average volume. Advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 negative. We are about shot term oversold here. I am not going to try and trade the bounce. I have already made a dumb trade today. I bought some NEM calls today. They are already getting clobbered. Gold was down a couple bucks but the XAU was down over 3 points. I got the calls before NEM went into a freefall. I might just have to dump them tomorrow and take the loss before it gets out of hand. You have to be smart in the game. You have to be patient in the game. The charts were not at all in the right mode for me to do this but I thought the uptrend would continue here. There is still over a week to go but I will have to see something constructive in the next 2 days before the long weekend. The earnings on this one do come out the day before expiration and an upside surprise could save this if we are close enough to the strike price by then. But todays action didn't look good and I am probably a fool for trying to do this. The timing doesn't seem to be right. Mentally I'm tired and did not get a full nights sleep. I need some rest. This is a short week and NEM needs to get back to $52.50 by the close on Thursday for this to have a chance. It's a buck away. You can never be too sure about anything here and you've always got to be on yours toes against yourself. There was no good reason to try this trade but I had it in my mind and I did it anyway. I'm lucky to be where I'm at as it is so far this year because the trading has been terrible. Horrible. Just not any good. This trade is another prime example...
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