Thursday, March 09, 2006
The Dow lost 33 points on light volume. Advance/declines were negative. I did not take any OEX positions. Gold was up over $2 but the XAU lost over 2 points. My XAU calls were higher in the morning but closed lower and are now in the red. We are at around 125 and need a close tomorrow at 128 or better. Needless to say, I should have just gotten out in the morning. This trade is looking terrible. I need to exit tomorrow. That is probably the most prudent thing to do. What wasn't prudent was buying some more ABX calls for April. I have put way too much money into this trade. ABX was down over 80 cents today and I don't know what to say. We are way oversold here. Every time it has gotten this blown out it has rebounded. There are 6 weeks to go in these options. I just don't know about this time though because it looks like gold is really breaking down. And if the XAU doesn't show some life tomorrow, I could be a fool. I am breaking one of the key trading rules here by taking on too much risk. The trade is too big. I am taking a chance because I believe that this will work and sometimes you gotta break the rules to get good returns. Employment report tomorrow. Should be a market mover but it hasn't been lately. Mentally I was at the dentist today and that threw things off for a while. I need to get back to the blue book and get my act together. I know it seems like I say this all the time but if things are going to change for the better, discipline must be adhered to. Bottom line is that the trading must improve and I'm the only one who can do that.
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