We had the return of volatility today as the Dow fell 166 points on very heavy volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index continues to track sideways. It was a one day downside reversal for most indices as stocks opened higher and closed lower. Once again the NASDAQ led the way lower and that's a negative. The S&P 500 dropped almost sixty points. The short term indicators there are now moving lower. It did bounce off of the 50 day moving average though. I do not think we are in for a big drop here right away but I could be wrong. We are still waiting for a signal to trade the SPY options. Gold had a much needed bounce today as the futures gained $310. The US dollar was a bit lower and interest rates finished flat. The XAU rose over 17 1/2, while GDX added 4. Volume remains pretty heavy here. Some of the short term indicators for GDX have begun to turn up. This is a start to the bounce we are looking for in order to try and get the GDX February puts again. Ideally this would occur at around the 105 level for GDX if it can make it back that far. We'll see. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX shot higher today before falling back below the 20 level. The short term indicators here are now pointing higher. It appears that volatility has made a comeback which means that the trading has to be quite nimble to be successful. I don't have a good handle on the SPY right now so we will have to sit things out there. I do favor the GDX puts again at some point before the February option expiration. However we will remain patient for now. Asia was higher and Europe slightly lower overnight. I'll keep an eye on tonights developments.

Higher prices to begin the week as the Dow gained 515 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index continues sideways. The Dow led the way today and that isn't the most bullish scenario. Both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 posted modest gains. Most of the short term indicators remain overbought for the S&P. Not sure where it is heading next but it is on the cusp of a new all time high. We were waiting for Fridays jobs report but it now is delayed due to another Federal government shut down. Not sure when it will be coming out. Waiting on the next signal for trading the SPY options. Gold dropped $62 on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU was off 1 1/2 and GDX lost 1/4. Volume remains heavy here. The short term indicators for GDX are still moving down with some already oversold. We are waiting for a bounce in the gold shares to try the GDX February puts. The gold shares lost around 17% from the high to the low in two days to end last week. Hoping for some kind of bounce off of that but we may just see a grind lower as well. Not expecting gold itself to make it back the the all time high anytime soon. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and the daily candlestick chart looks like it wants to go lower. The short term indicators here are now heading down. This would bode well for stocks in the near term but we'll have to wait and see. Really need to see the NASDAQ get going to the upside for the bulls to be in charge. Europe was higher and Asia lower with the exception of India to begin the week. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

We saw some selling to end the month of January as the Dow fell 179 points on very heavy volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is still in a sideways pattern. The NASDAQ led the way lower again and that is not a positive. The S&P 500 had a modest loss but again finished off of the worst levels on the session. The short term indicators here are rolling over but some remain in overbought territory. The question is are they rolling over to start a significant decline or are we going to bounce back to new all time highs? The NASDAQ daily chart has a more bearish look to it and is usually the leader. I'll ponder the possibilities this weekend. Gold got beaten to death as players headed to the exits. The gold futures lost $470 today to close back below $5000. Silver fell over 25%. In one day. The parabolic moves never end well. They are violent on the upside and equally severe going down. Take a look at the gold or silver weekly and monthly candlestick charts to get a view. My guess is that there will be more downside to follow. We will still be looking at the GDX puts on any near term rally before the February option expiration. The US dollar was higher and interest rates finished mixed. The XAU lost over 54 points and GDX fell 13 3/4. Volume exploded to the downside for the busiest day in years. This is what happens when everybody is trying to get out at the same time. The short term indicators for GDX are heading lower with some already oversold. We will try the GDX February puts on any bounce. Is it possible that gold and silver turn back up and head to new highs soon? I sincerely doubt it. Mentally I'm having mixed feelings. It was good that we were at least on the right track with regards to the gold shares. However not getting filled on the put orders means that the right adjustments were not made and we missed out on what would have been a profitable trade. There are no moral victories in this game. We are here to make money and it is as simple as that. The VIX was higher again which fits a down market. The short term indicators are trending higher with room to go. However there is no conviction with the way they are moving at the moment. Not sure what that means. Asia was lower and Europe higher to close out the week. I'll be checking the charts this weekend as usual. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Volatility made a comeback today but the Dow managed a gain of 56 points on very heavy volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is still tracking sideways. The NASDAQ led the way down for most major indices but came up from the lows of the session. The S&P 500 was down over 100 points during the day but came back to post only a small loss. Most of its short term indicators remain overbought. Not sure what to expect next here as the short term sell signal that we received may have run its course after todays price action. The option premiums for SPY remain elevated. Gold got whipped around like the stock market today but the futures ended with a gain of $80. The US dollar closed a bit lower as did interest rates. The XAU fell over 14 points and GDX lost 4 1/2. Volume was extremely heavy here on a one day downside reversal. My open order for the GDX February puts didn't get filled and I adjusted it a couple of times early this morning to no avail so I canceled the order. The premiums for the GDX puts did not go lower even when GDX itself was making new highs. That usually never happens but it was a tip off that the market makers knew something that we didn't. The short term indicators remain overbought for GDX. I still like the idea of the February puts for GDX but will wait to see if it trys to reach the near term highs again. As I have said before both gold and silver have gone parabolic and that condition cannot last. There's plenty of time left in the February option cycle with three weeks to go. Might place another open order for the GDX February puts overnight. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today but again retreated from the best levels on the session. The short term indicators here are turning up. Once again I'm not sure where this indicator goes next. Asia was higher and Europe little changed with the exception of the DAX which lost 2%. End of the month tomorrow.

The Fed came and went but there weren't any fireworks as the market traded sideways for much of the day. The Dow rose a dozen points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is beginning to trend flat. The NASDAQ posted a slight gain and the S&P 500 ended the day basically unchanged. We got a signal last night from the McClellan oscillator for a big move within the next two sessions. We'll see if that pans out tomorrow. The S&P 500 touched 7000 for the first time but did not close there. Some of its short term indicators have reached overbought territory. The short term sell signal on one of our indicators remains in place. We've got some tech earnings coming in after the bell and that may get things going one way or the other. On the sidelines regarding the SPY options for now. Gold blasted off $290 higher on the futures today. The US dollar was a bit higher along with interest rates. The gold shares were up but they didn't have as big an advance as gold itself. The XAU was higher by 10 1/2, while GDX added 2 7/8. Volume remains good to the upside. I thought that my open order for the GDX February puts would get hit today but it wasn't. I'm leaving it out there at the price I'm willing to risk on this idea. Maybe it will get filled tomorrow or maybe I'll cancel it. Gold is moving straight up and that cannot last forever. Overdue for a pullback or at least some kind of rest for the precious metals but buyers show up on any dip for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was unchanged on the session but down from its best levels. The short term indicators here are tracking sideways. The daily chart now looks like it wants to go lower from here which would be a positive for stocks. However with the sideways indicator readings for the VIX things really could go either way here. I'm certainly not sure and that's another reason why we are waiting on the next SPY option trade. Asia up and Europe down overnight. I'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.

Somewhat of a mixed picture today as the Dow fell 409 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were higher. The summation index is still moving higher. Much of the Dow loss can be attributed to the steep drop in UNH. Both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 posted decent gains with the NASDAQ leading the way higher. The S&P closed at a new all time high. The short term indicators there are still moving higher with some already overbought. We are getting a short term sell signal on the S&P from one of our indicators but I'm holding off on the SPY February puts for now. Option premiums here remain high. Gold was up $90 on the futures. The US dollar got crushed today which helped support gold. Interest rates were little changed or slightly higher. The gold shares had a one day upside reversal as they opened lower and closed higher. The XAU rose 4 1/3 and GDX was up around 1 3/4. Volume was good. The short term indicators for GDX remain overbought. I've still got my open order for the GDX February puts out there but will reconsider this idea tonight. The negative action in the US dollar today could be a cause for concern and drive gold higher instead of turning around here as I thought. As usual, the trading is never easy. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up a bit today and the short term indicators here are trending sideways. The daily candlestick chart has the look like it wants to go higher which would not bode well for stocks. We'll see. The Fed is on tap tomorrow but that seems to be in the background which hasn't happened for a while. We still expect no change in rates as does the rest of the world. All eyes and ears on what the chairman has to say after that. Asia and Europe were higher with the exception of the DAX. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

A positive start to the week for stocks as the Dow gained 313 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were barely positive. The summation index is still trending up. The Dow was the leader today and that isn't the most bullish outcome but we'll take the gains. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are moving higher with room to go. We are almost at a short term sell signal there ahead of the Fed on Wednesday. Option premiums remain high though. Not sure if we are going to try the SPY February puts here. Gold rallied over the $5000 mark as the futures were up sixty bucks. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU was up 1 3/4, while GDX added around 1/2. Volume was heavy for the gold shares as they fell back from the best levels on the session. My open order for the GDX February puts wasn't filled in the morning when the gold shares soared. It certainly should have been filled in my mind. The fact that it didn't get filled lets us know that the market makers know more than we do as the put premiums remained high despite the move up in the gold shares. It tells me that the GDX puts should work here as the gold shares remian overbought and have gone parabolic. I'm leaving my open order out there and we'll see if GDX trys to make it back to the high of today. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX finished flat today. The short term indicators here are starting to trend sideways. They are not yet oversold. Not sure what comes next here for the VIX but if the indicators start to move up we'll be in for a decline. That would be even more compelling for the GDX put trade or the SPY puts. But it hasn't happened yet. Geo-political tensions remain in the background with the Fed on Wednesday as the possible main event. We don't expect any change in interest rates but the speech after the announcement may be the catalyst. Asia was generally lower and Europe higher to begin the trading week. I'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.