The inflation data came in lighter than expected but the market still could not get anything going to the upside as the Dow lost 443 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is still moving down. There was a one day downside reversal for the S&P 500 as it could not hold on to its early gains at the end of the day. The NASDAQ managed a small gain though. The short term indicators for the S&P are either heading lower or sideways at the mid-range level. Still plenty of sellers around at the end of the month. Next up is the jobs report on Friday. Some of our medium term indicators are blown out to the downside at levels that usually lead to some kind of rally or at least a decent bounce. Hasn't happened yet. Gold was up six bucks on the futures as it could not hold on to its gains either. The US dollar was slightly higher and interest rates finished mixed. The XAU fell 5 and GDX dropped 1 1/4. Volume was light. The short term indicators for GDX remain oversold. It also had a one day downside reversal as it opened higher and closed lower. I did place an order for the GDX October calls this morning and it was filled. This trade is showing a small loss. I have a stop loss order in place as I may be too early for this idea to work. If the trade does get stopped out I will try it again at a different strike price. I do expect some sort of move higher or decent bounce for gold and the gold shares at some point before the October option expiration. The technical evidence supports that thesis in my view. Timing as always is the key. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today which fits with a mostly overall down picture for stocks today. The short term indicators are now moving higher. Still below the 200 day moving average here. I'm in the next trade now and at the rate things are going it will get stopped out tomorrow. Regardless, we are sticking with the gold share call trade opinion for now. Asia was generally higher and Europe lower overnight. I'll keep an eye on this evenings developments.

Just hanging around today as the Dow fell another 131 points on good volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index continues to move down. Small losses in the NASDAQ and S&P 500 as the Dow was the leader lower. Waiting on tomorrows inflation data. Not looking for any surprises there but who knows? The short term indicators for the S&P are still trending lower with some at the mid-range level. No SPY option trades for now. However I am still in the camp that the market starts to turn higher sooner rather than later. Gold was up $37 on the futures. The US dollar was higher an interest rates finished mixed. The XAU rose 1 1/3 and GDX added around 1 1/4. Volume was just a bit below average. The short term indicators for GDX are trying to turn up in oversold territory. I would like to try the GDX October calls on any weakness tomorrow. That is the plan at the moment. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX finished basically unchanged today. The short term indicators here are heading sideways. I'm still not sure what's next for the VIX. Plenty of economic data out tomorrow highlighted by the inflation report. End of the month to deal with too. So it should be an interesting session. Europe was mixed and Asia generally lower overnight. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

This week begins on a down note as the Dow lost 347 points on good volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative. The summation index continues lower. The NASDAQ led the way lower and that is not a plus. We began the day with a gap lower, tried to rally couple of times and then rolled over into the close. I'm still having trouble figuring out exactly what is going on here. Perhaps my idea of things turning higher now is wrong. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are moving down with plenty of room to go. I'm going to have to remain on the sidelines with regards to the SPY options for now. One day it looks like things are about to go higher and the next day the market turns around and heads down. The summation index has made it through the zero line and the market did not collapse. The Dow is the one index that has had somewhat of a drop. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ continue to simply trend sideways. Gold got clobbered today as the futures fell $167. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU lost 18 1/2, while GDX dropped about 5 points. Volume was good to the downside. GDX broke through and closed below its 200 day moving average. GDX is now short term oversold. I still like the idea for the GDX calls and might be trying them this week. Perhaps on Wednesday when we get the inflation data and maybe see another sell off. The technical set up is there but I don't know how long GDX will remain oversold. In down trends it remains oversold for a longer period of time. The trading is never easy. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today and some of its short term indicators are moving higher. Still below the 200 day moving average here and not close to the 20 level. Not sure where the VIX is headed next. End of the month coming up on Wednesday. Europe and Asia were mostly lower to start the week. I'll keep an eye on the overnight trading.

After some early back and forth the market decided to go higher as the Dow gained 478 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index continues lower. Both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 posted gains on the day but the Dow was by far the leader. Once again we are at the point where if the market was going to go lower it would have by now. Therefore I've got to believe that things are going higher from here. For whatever reason, this time when the summation index crossed the zero line stocks didn't collapse. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are in overbought territory but not at extremes. I am back to thinking that new all time highs in that index will be hit at some point next week. Gold was up $29 on the futures. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU was up 2 3/8, while GDX added about 1/2. Volume was light. The short term indicators for GDX are oversold and it continues to hold above its 200 day moving average. I am thinking that perhaps this is the time to try the GDX October calls but I'll look things over again this weekend. The overall US dollar and interest rate environment does not favor gold at the moment. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX was lower today and that fits with a positive day for stocks. The short term indicators here are back to heading lower. We'll get inflation data on Wednesday followed by the jobs report on Friday next week. The month ends on Wednesday as well. So there will be excuses to move the markets. I'll be going over all the charts this weekend to try and come up with some type of game plan for next week. Europe was mixed and Asia higher with China closed to end the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

A little volatility today but the market mostly just hung around as the Dow fell 161 points on good volume. The advance/declines were around 2 to 1 negative. The summation index continues lower. The NASDAQ and S&P 500 ended the day flat. We had a small gap lower at the open followed by a jump at noon. Otherwise it was mostly a sideways affair. I'm not exactly sure what the next catalyst will be. The short term indicators on the S&P have started to move sideways. Gold was off $9 on the futures. The US dollar was slightly higher and interest rates finished mixed. The XAU dipped around 6 points, while GDX shed 1 1/4. Volume was average. GDX bounced off of its 200 day moving average. The short term indicators there are still heading lower. I am still considering the GDX October calls at some point. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today but down from the best levels on the session. The short term indicators here are trending higher but with no conviction. Not sure exactly what's next for the VIX. The US/China get together hasn't had any surprises yet. The summation index has now crossed the zero line and we haven't seen stocks fall apart. That isn't the normal course of action. Not sure what it means but would still be careful about getting too interested in the long side until the summation index starts moving up. The market breadth is still negative most every session. Europe and Asia were lower with the exception of Japan. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

Sellers took over on Wednesday as the Dow fell 352 points on average volume. The advance/declines were better than 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving down. I had thought that it would turn around here at the zero line but that isn't happening. Caution is advised. The NASDAQ led the way lower and that is a negative. Things didn't exactly fall apart but that possibility now looms. Some of the short term indicators on the S&P 500 have turned down and its daily candlestick chart now has a bearish formation on it. Not exactly sure what happens next here so I'll remain on the sidelines for now. Gold lost $54 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and so were interest rates. The XAU fell 16 2/3, while GDX lost 4 1/4. Volume was good to the downside. Yesterday I was concerned about missing the next leg higher in the gold shares. Today, not so much. I considered chasing the gold shares higher yesterday but thankfully did not. The short term indicators for GDX have turned back down and are not yet oversold. GDX is already back below the down trend line that it broke yesterday. Back on the sidelines with regards to the GDX options for now as well. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today and that fits with a down market. The short term indicators here are turning up. We'll see if there is any follow through higher tomorrow. China and the US get together for a meeting of their leaders tomorrow. What comes out of that might get the markets going one way or the other. Asia was mixed and Europe lower overnight. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

Today was a mixed bag with the Dow lower and the NASDAQ higher. The most watched index fell 185 points on good volume. The advance/declines were about even. The summation index is still trending lower at the zero line but appears to be trying to turn around. The NASDAQ was up today and the S&P 500 basically unchanged. Waiting on the next catalyst to get things moving again, perhaps the Thursday meeting between the US and China. Some of the short term indicators for the S&P are overbought and others are moving sideways. I'm in the camp that we will hit a new all time high on the S&P in the near future. But I could be wrong. The breadth hasn't been all that good lately, however you cannot argue with price. Option premiums remain high. Gold was up twenty bucks on the futures. The US dollar finished slightly higher and interest rates ticked lower. The XAU gained almost 14 points and GDX was up 3 1/3. Volume was average. Looks like that we missed out on the GDX calls here again. GDX has broken above its short term down trend line today. The short term indicators here are moving higher with plenty of room to go. Perhaps this is a move that should be chased. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and the short term indicators are moving down in oversold territory. During rallies the VIX can stay oversold longer than usual. We'll see if that is the case this time around. Right now I suspect that it is. Europe finished pretty flat and Asia was higher with the exception of India last night. We'll see what tomorrow brings.