A mixed bag today as the Dow rose 161 points on light volume to another record close. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is back to heading sideways. The NASDAQ barely posted a gain and the S&P 500 was off a point. The S&P remains short term overbought. I remain convinced that it needs to take a pause. Expiration Friday tomorrow, not sure what that will bring. Gold was up $15 on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU gained 1 1/2 and GDX was up another 1/2. Volume was average. The GDX calls would have worked in the October option cycle and that was a trade that I missed. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today. The short term indicators here are still at the mid-range level but appear to be picking up steam heading down. This would imply lower VIX readings and still yet higher stock prices going forward. Still waiting for the TRAN and The NASDAQ to confirm the new all time highs for the Dow and they are almost there but not yet. Confirmation would change my idea about a drop for stocks in the near term. It is something worth keeping an eye on in my view. Europe higher and Asia lower overnight. We'll see how expiration Friday goes tomorrow.

Back to the upside as the Dow gained 337 points on light volume. Another record close there. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. This should move the summation index higher. The Dow led the way today and that is not the most bullish scenario. Both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 were higher but not as much as the Dow. The short term indicators for the S&P remain overbought and heading sideways. I sold my SPY October puts for an 85% loss. This was one of those trades that was a failure from the beginning and never showed any profit. My timing was off early which can't happen on short term trades. I might have to simply skip the short term ideas going forward because my track record there isn't all that good. I do still think that things will head lower from here however I can't wait around for the market to cooperate. I could be wrong. Gold was up $11 on the futures. The US dollar continues higher and interest rates finished flat. The XAU was up 1 1/2, while GDX added 1/3. Volume was average. Both finished off of their highs for the session and have bearish evening stars on their daily candlestick charts. The short term indicators for GDX are still rising though. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and is back below the 20 level. The short term indicators here have turned back down but still with no conviction. Getting to mid-range on the indicators for the VIX. Some economic data out tomorrow with retail sales being the most watched. More earnings due as well. I'll be on the sidelines for now. Asia and Europe were mostly lower last night. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

Some sellers showed up today as the Dow fell 324 points on light volume. The advance/declines were about even. The summation index is beginning to move sideways. No real reason for todays decline but the market has been short term overbought for an extended period of time. The NASDAQ led the way lower. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have turned lower but remain in overbought territory. I'm still a believer in some type of decline from here but it probably won't be in time to save my SPY October put trade. It remains a big loser with only three days to go. I was a day early on this trade and timing is everything when there isn't much left of it in an option cycle. Gold was up a dozen on the futures. The US dollar finished flat and interest rates dropped. The XAU rose 1 1/3, while GDX gained 1/2. Volume was light. The short term indicators are moving up from mid-range for GDX which implies more gains here in the near term. We'll see. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today which fits the down market. Back above the 20 level. The short term indicators here are trying to turn back up. If successful it should lead to more selling in the near term. We'll see. Asia and Europe were lower with the exception of Japan. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

Continuing to the upside on a partial holiday Monday as the Dow added 201 points on pretty light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is beginning to stall. The NASDAQ led the way higher and that's a plus for the bulls. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought as it has been for quite a while. My SPY October puts got crushed today and this trade will end up being a loser unless a sell off appears out of the blue. I'm too far out of the money with only four days to go before option expiration. Shorts got squeezed along with index put owners. I still cannot believe that the market continues higher with such light volume but price is the ultimate judge and jury. No overhead resistance so I'm not sure how long this goes on. Gold was off $7. The US dollar was higher and the bond market was closed. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves in either direction on extremely light volume. The short term indicators for GDX are now mid-range. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today which fits the upside for stocks. The short term indicators here continue to drift lower with no conviction. Back below the 20 level now on the VIX. Not much economic data due out this week but we will have earnings reports to deal with. Europe and Asia were generally higher to start the week. We'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.

The inflation data was a touch lighter than expected and the market took off to the upside. The Dow climbed 409 points on light volume. The advance/declines were just shy of 4 to 1 positive. The summation index is still trending lower but not as rapid. The Dow was the leader and that isn't the most bullish scenario but we cannot argue with price. The S&P 500 had a decent gain and is now at its upper Bollinger band. It remains short term overbought. My open order for the SPY October puts was filled this morning and is showing a loss as my timing was early. Had I waited until later in the session I could have gotten a better entry point. However we'll trade it from where it is. I'm still a believer in this idea but we'll need to see some weakness early next week for the trade to work. Monday is a partial holiday as the bond market will be closed. Gold jumped $34 today on the futures. The US dollar finished flat again and interest rates were just a bit lower. The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on light volume. A nice move for gold but the gold shares lagging isn't a bullish sign. Especially when the overall martket had such a positive day. Not sure what to make of it. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today which fits an up market. The short term indicators are rolling over but it isn't steep or decisive just yet. Still above the 20 level on the VIX. The light volume rally continues but I do not think that it will end well as we never trust moves without volume. Perhaps it can stay together next week with the usual positive options expiration bias. But we'll see. I'm in the next trade now and the focus will be there. We'll check the charts over the weekend as usual. Europe higher and Asia mixed to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

We had a gap down at the open as the inflation data was just a bit hotter than expected. The rest of the day was spent in a sideways trading range as the Dow lost 58 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index continues lower. The market had reasons to sell off today but it didn't. So it turned into a day of hanging around. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought. My open order for the SPY October puts is still out there but we are running out of time. Also time premium is beginning to get sucked out of the options so the price on the puts dropped today despite a drop in the S&P. So this trade may not still be the best idea. I'll see if it gets filled heading into the weekend but if not it will be canceled and maybe for good. Gold was up twenty bucks on the futures. The US dollar finished flat as did interest rates. The gold shares found buyers as the XAU gained 4 1/3 and GDX was up over a buck. Volume was average. The technical case for the gold share calls was there but I did not take advantage of it. Concentrating on the SPY probably cost me the opportunity here. The short term indicators for GDX have now turned up from oversold and should have more room to go on the upside. One day doesn't make a trend but GDX has also bounced off of its short term up trend line. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was just a touch higher today. The short term indicators here are trying to roll over. If successful there should be new all time highs for the S&P in the near future. We'll have to see how the market reacts to the PPI tomorrow. Asia was up and Europe slightly lower overnight. We'll see how things go on Friday.

A new all time closing high for the Dow as it gained 431 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is still moving lower though. The breadth on this advance is lacking but you cannnot argue with price. The S&P 500 closed at a new all time high as well. Still short term overbought on the indicators here but not completely. The market isn't waiting for the inflation data as it continues higher. The volume is light though and I don't trust light volume rallies. I have once again adjusted my open order for the SPY puts to a higher strike price as I am still in the camp that the October puts will work at some point. But I could be wrong. There is no overhead resistance now for the S&P. However the daily candlestick chart has the look of a rising wedge which would be bearish if correct. Gold was off $7 on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume. Once again they came up off of the lows for the session. GDX is short term overbought and at its 50 day moving average. The GDX November calls are still a bit too pricey for me but you can certainly make the case to buy the gold share calls here. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and remains short term overbought. Not sure what's happening with the VIX as it usually doesn't stay overbought for long. Still above the 20 level here. Not sure how the market will react to the inflation data in the morning. We were up a lot today so even if the data is benign I'm not sure what the effect will be. My guess is that the PPI will come in hotter than the CPI so I might just get some of the SPY October puts tomorrow if my adjusted order isn't filled. But that's a decision for tomorrow. Asia was mixed and Europe higher in last nights trade. We'll watch tonights headlines and check the reaction to the inflation report on Thursday.