Somewhat of a mixed picture today as the Dow fell 409 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were higher. The summation index is still moving higher. Much of the Dow loss can be attributed to the steep drop in UNH. Both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 posted decent gains with the NASDAQ leading the way higher. The S&P closed at a new all time high. The short term indicators there are still moving higher with some already overbought. We are getting a short term sell signal on the S&P from one of our indicators but I'm holding off on the SPY February puts for now. Option premiums here remain high. Gold was up $90 on the futures. The US dollar got crushed today which helped support gold. Interest rates were little changed or slightly higher. The gold shares had a one day upside reversal as they opened lower and closed higher. The XAU rose 4 1/3 and GDX was up around 1 3/4. Volume was good. The short term indicators for GDX remain overbought. I've still got my open order for the GDX February puts out there but will reconsider this idea tonight. The negative action in the US dollar today could be a cause for concern and drive gold higher instead of turning around here as I thought. As usual, the trading is never easy. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up a bit today and the short term indicators here are trending sideways. The daily candlestick chart has the look like it wants to go higher which would not bode well for stocks. We'll see. The Fed is on tap tomorrow but that seems to be in the background which hasn't happened for a while. We still expect no change in rates as does the rest of the world. All eyes and ears on what the chairman has to say after that. Asia and Europe were higher with the exception of the DAX. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

A positive start to the week for stocks as the Dow gained 313 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were barely positive. The summation index is still trending up. The Dow was the leader today and that isn't the most bullish outcome but we'll take the gains. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are moving higher with room to go. We are almost at a short term sell signal there ahead of the Fed on Wednesday. Option premiums remain high though. Not sure if we are going to try the SPY February puts here. Gold rallied over the $5000 mark as the futures were up sixty bucks. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU was up 1 3/4, while GDX added around 1/2. Volume was heavy for the gold shares as they fell back from the best levels on the session. My open order for the GDX February puts wasn't filled in the morning when the gold shares soared. It certainly should have been filled in my mind. The fact that it didn't get filled lets us know that the market makers know more than we do as the put premiums remained high despite the move up in the gold shares. It tells me that the GDX puts should work here as the gold shares remian overbought and have gone parabolic. I'm leaving my open order out there and we'll see if GDX trys to make it back to the high of today. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX finished flat today. The short term indicators here are starting to trend sideways. They are not yet oversold. Not sure what comes next here for the VIX but if the indicators start to move up we'll be in for a decline. That would be even more compelling for the GDX put trade or the SPY puts. But it hasn't happened yet. Geo-political tensions remain in the background with the Fed on Wednesday as the possible main event. We don't expect any change in interest rates but the speech after the announcement may be the catalyst. Asia was generally lower and Europe higher to begin the trading week. I'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

A mixed bag today as the Dow fell 285 points on good volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is still moving up. The NASDAQ posted a slight gain and the S&P 500 finished around unchanged. The short term indicators for the S&P are beginning to stall. We've got the Fed next week and the backdrop of waiting for the next headline out of Washington. My guess would be that we are on our way to a new all time high in the S&P 500 but that isn't etched in stone. SPY option premiums remain high. Gold was up $66 on the futures to close at a new all time high on its way to $5000. The US dollar took a big hit and interest rates were slightly lower. The XAU was up 8 1/3 and GDX added 1 7/8. Volume was slightly below average. GDX remains short term overbought as it has been for a couple of weeks. My open order for the GDX February puts remains out there as I moved the strike price on the ticket. We'll see what happens over the weekend and go from there. The lower US dollar is a boost for gold so perhaps this idea for the puts is not best one at this time. I'll reconsider over the next couple of days. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was a bit higher today. Some of its short term indicators are beginning to track sideways. Not exactly sure what's next for this indicator. After a rough start to the short week stocks turned around and finished higher. I'm not sure if it is the beginning of a new leg higher for the S&P or a snapback to the broken short term up trend line. We'll probably know the answer next week. I'll be going over the charts this weekend to try and come up with a game plan moving forward. Asia was higher on Friday with the exception of India and Europe finished mixed. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Moving higher as the Dow gained 306 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is moving up. The NASDAQ led the way higher today and that's a plus. The S&P 500 posted a decent gain and some of the indicators there continue to move higher. Not overbought or oversold there. It still feels like the market remains at the mercy of the next headline. Gold was up $83 on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates finished flat. The XAU gained 15 1/2, while GDX added over 3 3/4. Volume is still above average to the upside. GDX remains short term overbought and staying there. I did place an overnight order for the GDX February puts but it did not get filled. I'm leaving it out there overnight but might change my mind. Perhaps move to a different strike price or cancel the order altogether. Gold looks like it wants to travel to the $5000 level and it is almost there. Gold and silver are extremly overbought on all timeframes along with parabolic moves higher on the weekly and monthly charts. It is a fools game to try and pick the top for these two which is why I might just cancel my order for the GDX puts. We'll see. I also may just wait to try this idea at some point next week ahead of the Fed announcement. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today with its short term indicators heading down with room to go. Tuesdays decline in stocks seems to be in the rear view mirror. Not sure how this week will close out. It's earnings season but that seems to be in the background for now. ASia and Europe were higher overnight. I'll keep an eye on this evenings headlines.

Back to the upside today as we enter a whipsawed world for now. The Dow gained 588 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were shy of 4 to 1 positive. The summation index is heading back up. Now we won't have new tariffs as we are at the mercy of the next headline or sound bite. It makes the trading environment even tougher than it already is. We are not thinking that this is the end of the world as the market is in a seasonal good period for stocks. The fact that the TRAN has recently reached a new all time closing high to finally follow the Dow is longer term plus. On a shorter term basis some of the indicators for the S&P 500 have turned back up. Options premiums remain high. Still waiting on a decent signal for the next trade. However at the moment you've got to take profits when you get them because of the increase in volatility. Gold was up $58 on the futures. The US dollar was slightly higher and interest rates dipped just a bit. The XAU was down five points, while GDX dropped 1 1/2. Volume was good. Gold up and the gold shares down isn't bullish. GDX remains short term overbought. I would think that a short term trade with the GDX February puts might work here. However with the current unabated strength in gold right now it may not be worth the risk. We'll look at it tonight. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX dropped today and that fits the upside in stocks. The short term indicators here moved lower and some already have made it down to mid-range. It makes it appear that yesterdays decline was simply a one day wonder. Time will tell on that. Europe and Asia finished mixed overnight. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Tariff tantrums return as the Dow fell 870 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is begining to stall. The NASDAQ led the way down and that's negative. We had a big gap down at the open for stocks and continued lower from there. The short term up trend line for the S&P 500 has been broken. The short term indicators there are moving down with room to go although some are already oversold. Support could come in at 6700 or 6600 but we don't know at this point. It might be a lot lower. The market is at the mercy now of the next headline and that is a risky game to play. Option premiums have also gone up with the increase in volatility. Not exactly sure what our next trade will be. Gold took off to the upside as haven demand increased. The yellow metal was up $166 on the futures. The US dollar sank while interest rates continue to rise. The XAU jumped over twenty points and GDX climbed 5 1/2. Volume was good to the upside. GDX is overbought, extremely so and showing no signs of slowing down. Money simply continues to find a home here. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX took off to the upside and closed above the 20 level. The short term indicators there are now overbought but not completely. It appears that stocks could be in for wild ride this week. We are looking at both the puts and the calls for the SPY. But the better approach might be staying on the sidelines and waiting for a legitimate technical signal. We'll see. Asia and Europe were lower as players head for the exits. I'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

A day of hanging around on expiration Friday as the Dow fell 83 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is moving up. Minor losses were posted by the major averages. The short term indicators for the S&P are still heading sideways. Rolling into the February option cycle which has an extra week in it. A holiday weekend here in the US as well. We are waiting for the next signal to put on the next trade. Gold dropped $35 on the futures. The US dollar finished little changed and interest rates continue to rise. The XAU and GDX had fractional moves higher on about average volume. The indicators for GDX simply remain overbought. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX ended the day flat. The short term indicators here are still mid-range. So the VIX remains in a position of implying that things could go either way. I'll be going over the charts during the long weekend as usual. Sometimes you have to remain patient in the game while awaiting the next perceived opportunity. That is the position that we are in now. It isn't always easy to wait but it is better than trying to force things. Markets go where they want. Europe and Asia were down with the exception of India. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.