Lower to the beginning of option expiration week as the Dow fell 52 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index continues lower.  No buyers to be found as we drift lower.  Technically we're short term oversold so a case can be made here for a bounce.  I'm not sold on any type of sustainable rally at the moment.  We would have to see the breadth improve and the small stocks take the lead to the upside for a longer term move higher.  However the decline needs to be contained here and now or it has the potential to spiral down much lower than where are now.  So we are at a key point in time in my opinion.  I think that the bounce is possible but beyond that I'm just not sure.  GE lost few cents on average volume.  Earnings due on Friday.  Gold was little changed and the US dollar was a bit lower.  The XAU added 1 1/4, while GDX rose 1/3.  Volume was light.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well.  A fair amount of economic data still due this week along with the Feds beige book and more earnings reports.  If we don't bounce tomorrow it could be an ugly session.  If we do bounce, the nature and strength of a move higher will tell us a lot about where we are going.  There has been a lot of chatter about being on hold until after the US presidential election.  That could happen as well, which would simply keep us moving sideways in a channel.  That has been the case for quite a while.  But I think tomorrow is important, given where we are at on the charts.  I'm thinking that we will bounce but I could be wrong.  Asia was mixed and Europe lower overnight.  Stay tuned.

We started out with a jump to the upside and the Dow was up over 150 points.  However we spent the rest of the day drifting lower and the Dow finished with a gain of 39 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were barely positive.  The summation index is still heading lower.  The economic data came in as expected.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow.  The small stocks continue to under perform.  The short term technical indicators remain oversold for the major indices.  Option expiration week is coming up.  GE was up 1/8 and the volume remains light.  Earnings due here in a week.  Gold was off $5 on the futures as the US dollar snapped back to the upside.  The XAU lost 1 1/2, while GDX shed 1/2.  Volume was light.  The strong dollar will remain a headwind for the gold complex.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Still watching the 2120 level on the S&P 500 as key support but I do think that 2100 is more important.  I could also make the case for some kind of bounce in the next couple of days as well.  However with the summation index heading lower and the small caps not showing any strength, the case for lower prices seems to be the better choice for now.  I'd still like to get some SPY November calls at some point in the next couple of weeks.  The market has been sideways for 3 months.  The breakout will be worth trading either way.  I'm still a believer in new all time highs before the end of the year.  But I'll try and listen to what the market is saying.  This weeks price action was not positive.  I'll be checking the charts over the weekend as usual.  I am feeling better but not all the way back yet.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

The market sold off hard early and then spent the rest of the day making a comeback.  We didn't quite make it all the way back as the Dow fell 45 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index continues lower.  The small stocks are still under performing.  Oversold on the short term technicals for the major indices but there is still a little bit of room to move lower.  The 2120 level in the S&P 500 is said to be an important point to hold.  I think the 2100 level is the number but that's just my interpretation of things at the moment.  The daily candlestick pattern on the S&P today has the potential to be a hammer depending on the market action going forward.  GE fell 1/8 and the volume was light.  Gold rose $5 on the futures as the US dollar was lower for a change.  The XAU and GDX had small fractional gains on average volume.  Trying to hold at the 200 day moving average for the gold share indices.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It appeared that we were going to fall off a cliff early this morning but buyers showed up and stemmed the decline.  However with the summation index still heading down, the path of least resistance is lower.  The VIX had another jump up and the technical indicators here are overbought.  I think that we are at a spot where maybe the selling is getting exhausted in the near term.  I could be wrong.  I'm not sure how the market will react to the economic data tomorrow but that would be the case at any time.  I'd like to see us get down to the 2100 level on the S&P 500.  That would be my entry point for the SPY November calls.  Could all just be wishful thinking on my part.  Europe and Asia were generally lower as the data from China last night was weaker than expected.  We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

A day of running in place as the Dow gained 15 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index is still heading lower.  The small stocks showed relative weakness and that is not a positive.  However the technical indicators on the VIX are pretty much overbought and that could spell some near term relief.  We didn't have any downside follow through to yesterdays decline and that is a plus as well.  But the market will go where it wants.  The Fed minutes today were basically a non-event.  GE was off a couple cents and the volume was light.  Gold was flat on the session as the US dollar continues to rise.  Overbought and staying that was for the dollar.  The XAU rose 1 3/4 and GDX gained 1/2.  Volume was average.  Mentally I'm feeling OK but physically feeling tired.  Running out of time in the October option cycle.  Friday could get volatile, with retail sales plus inflation data.  More oversold than overbought for the major big cap averages.  Earnings just beginning here as well.  It never gets easy.  I'll try and be patient for a good signal.  I'm still considering the SPY November calls at the moment.  Europe and Asia were lower overnight.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

Selling all around today as the Dow fell 200 points on light to average volume.  The advance/declines were 6 to 1 negative.  The summation index is heading down.  I thought that perhaps it was going to make an attempt to turn around here.  Obviously wrong after todays market action.  No real reasons given for todays decline.  The short term technical indicators are trying to roll over here for the major averages.  Even the small caps took a beating today.  We'll have to see if this is the start of some type of bigger decline.  I'm not exactly sure at the moment.  GE was up a few cents on average volume.  The damage has already been done here.  Gold was off $6 on the futures as the US dollar continues to rise.  The XAU shed 1 3/4, while GDX lost over 1/2.  Volume was average.  As long as the dollar continues to rally, gold will not be bought.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Yesterdays gain was on light volume which most likely was the result of Columbus Day.  But as usual, light volume rallies are unreliable.  Depending on how this week concludes, we are breaking some up trend lines on the major indexes that began with the lows of February.  But the week isn't over yet and we could potentially rally back in the next 3 days.  The VIX rose today as well but isn't overbought yet.  The S&P 500 did manage to bounce from its lower Bollinger band on a daily basis today.  Perhaps that will keep things in check going forward.  If we do get to oversold on the short term indicators for the S&P, then I may try the go out to the SPY November calls.  That is the only idea that I have in the works right now.  We really haven't seen any trend in the S&P since mid-July, so it is hard on whether to say that this is actually the start of one.  Time will tell on that.  Asia was mixed and Europe lower last night.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

The Dow rose 88 points today on light volume.  The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index will still be heading lower but perhaps it is trying to turn around here.  It was a partial holiday in the US with Columbus day.  Not all of the players were at their desks.  The market is still trying to make up its mind on which way to go here.  Earnings begin again this week.  No clear signal yet, so I'll remain on the sidelines for now.  GE was off almost 1/4 on average volume.  One of the problems that I have here for a rally is the continued under performance of a bellwether such as GE.  It broke to another new low since mid July today.  Gold rose $9 on the futures and the US dollar was higher today as well.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on very light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  9 days left in the October option cycle.  It doesn't appear that I'll be making a trade unless things line up technically for the S&P 500.  The indicators that I follow continue to hover mid-range for the short term.  I will say that the continued strength in the small caps does bode well for the overall market going forward.  However the timing of my next trade is always in question and I just don't have the answer right now.  I'm still recovering from my recent bout with ill health but am feeling better at least.  Asia was mixed and Europe higher overnight.  We'll look for some follow through upside in the markets tomorrow.

The employment report came and went and we are still in a sideways pattern of indecision.  The Dow fell 28 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  We did come off of the lows for the session.  The summation index is still moving down.  There's still no resolution to which way we're going to break out here.  A lot of the short term technical indicators for the major indices remain mid-range.  We did have a British pound flash crash overnight and the market shrugged that off.  I'm still a believer in higher prices eventually but the timing is far from certain.  GE fell about 20 cents on better volume.  This issue has been lower since mid July and is not offering any overall support to the market at this time.  Gold was up $5 on the futures and the US dollar was a bit lower.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves one way or the other on average volume.  The jobs report was slightly less than anticipated but offered nothing in the way of moving gold much higher.  Mentally I'm doing OK.  We waited for the employment report but we still have no clarity in the stock market.  I'm not sure what the issue is.  I don't think it's the upcoming presidential election in the US.  The next interest rate move won't be until December, if at all.  Perhaps it's the fear of some kind of October collapse but these things never happen when everyone is looking for one.  So I'll simply continue to wait it out.  When we get oversold, I'll look to the SPY calls.  If we move up to get to be overbought, I'll look to the SPY puts.  At this point going out to November seems to have to the prudent choice.  The market will move at its own pace.  There will be some economic data due next week but not a lot.  Europe and Asia were generally lower overnight.  I'll be checking the charts over the weekend but the plan of waiting for a decent signal should remain intact.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

A one day reversal to the upside for the S&P 500 as we opened lower and closed higher.  The Dow  ended the day down 12 points however.  The advance/declines were slightly negative and the volume was light.  The summation index is still heading lower.  Early weakness today was bought and then we moved sideways for the rest of the session.  Simply waiting for the market reaction to tomorrows employment report.  There is nothing to read into todays market action.  Tomorrow will be the key.  GE was off 1/4, volume was nothing special.  Gold dropped another dozen as the US dollar continues to rise.  Foreshadowing a decent jobs report tomorrow?  Who knows?  The XAU shed another 2 1/2, while GDX lost 3/4.  Volume was good.  Quite a negative week so far for gold and the gold shares.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The price action today for the major indices implies higher prices tomorrow.  But it isn't 100% accurate, as nothing is in this game.  I do think that tomorrow will set the tone for which direction we're going to go here.  You can make the case either way, which is why it is probably best to simply wait it out and see where we go.  As always, the markets reaction to the numbers and not the numbers themselves will tell the story.  We've basically waited all week for this and hopefully it doesn't disappoint.  Asia was higher and Europe slightly lower last night.  All eyes on the jobs report and we'll close out the week tomorrow.

Back to the upside as we are in a holding pattern until Friday.  The Dow rose 112 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is still moving lower.  Still just waiting on a break out higher or lower for the S&P.  The catalyst could be the employment report on Friday.  Plenty of time left in the October option cycle.  I'd expect tomorrow to be a wait and see affair.  GE was flat and the volume was average.  Gold and the US dollar both finished the session little changed.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on good volume.  No real downside follow through to yesterdays gold debacle.  However the damage was so severe that perhaps we're temporarily sold out there.  Mentally I'm feeling OK but still tired and still not up to par.  The technical indicators for the major averages remain mid-range with the exception of the TRAN, which are overbought.  Perhaps the TRAN is leading the way here but time will tell on that.  So far, the recent rally in the TRAN hasn't led the INDU higher.  However we all know that the market goes where it wants.  The relative out performance of the small stocks is another positive that has yet to manifest itself.  I'll remain on the sidelines for now.  Europe and Asia were mixed overnight.  We'll continue to watch the overnight action.

Lower again today as the Dow fell 85 points on what passes for average volume these days.  The advance/declines were shy of 3 to 1 negative.  This should get the summation index heading lower.  Just waiting for Friday in my opinion here.  Plenty of time in the October option cycle to make a trade if you're so inclined.  I'm on the sidelines until a decent signal occurs.  GE was off 1/8 and volume picked up to the downside.  The big news was with gold today as it got clobbered.  The precious metal futures dropped 40 bucks as we sliced through the $1300 level.  The US dollar was higher but not by enough to justify a $40 drop in gold.  Not sure what is going on here.  The XAU lost 8 2/3, while GDX fell 2 1/2.  Volume was off the charts heavy on the selling.  It appears that everyone headed for the exits at the same time.  The usual positive seasonal bias for gold did not show up this year.  Mentally I'm doing OK.  Feeling tired but that is to be expected as I recuperate.  The market is trying to figure out which way to go here.  The small stocks are acting relatively better so a bullish outcome is probably to be expected eventually.  They continue to trade above their 50 day moving averages, while the big cap indices are below the 50 day.  Just an observation there, may not mean anything.  Asia was slightly higher overnight, with Europe having a better upside performance.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

We begin the week and the month with a loss, as the Dow fell 54 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is trending sideways.  The short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 are either mid-range or overbought.  No trades in mind at the moment.  Fridays jobs report will be the headline for the week.  GE was up a couple cents and the volume was pretty light.  Gold was off a couple bucks on the futures as the US dollar was higher.  The XAU dropped almost 2 points, while GDX shed 1/2.  Volume was light.  Mentally I'm doing so-so, physically I've still got a ways to go.  I'm not completely back to normal so the trading will have to wait.  I don't see a solid signal here for the SPY one way or the other.  I do think that we will get to new all time highs for the S&P 500 before the end of the year.  But the timing is the question.  Perhaps the market will simply be on hold until Friday.  That's just a guess and guesses are not what we base our trades on.  Europe and Asia were generally higher overnight.  We'll keep an eye on what happens tonight.

The blog will return.  I was taken by ambulance to the emergency room on the night of the 12th.  I was released from the hospital on the 20th.   I'm home now but the recovery will take some time.  We all know that the market doesn't care.  As always, stick with the technical indicators as best you can.  When I get my wits about me, the blog will be back to normal.  We live in the unpredictable trading world but there is one thing you can be sure of.  Be ever so thankful for your family and friends because they will be worth more than any amount of money that you'll make playing this game.

The Dow roared back today with a one day reversal to the upside.  It gained 239 points on better than lately volume.  The advance/declines were shy of 3 to 1 positive.  The summation index is still heading lower.  GE was up 3/8 on good volume.  Gold was up $7 on the futures and the US dollar was lower.  The XAU rose 3 1/3, while GDX added 2/3.  Volume was good.  My apologies for the short blog with my usual comments but I am ill today.  I can say that volatility is back and I think we will have to bounce around before we move to new all time highs.  I am looking at the October SPY calls.  But I am very under the weather and would not put much stock in what I'm thinking under these physical conditions.  Hopefully I'll be back to normal tomorrow.

We finally got the break out of the months long congestion zone but it wasn't to the upside as I expected.  The Dow got clobbered today and fell 394 points on what passes for better than average volume these days.  The buyers disappeared.  The advance/declines were 17 to 1 negative.  The summation index is heading back down.  The market recently tried to get through the zero line on the McClellan oscillator and it did but barely.  It has now quickly reversed course.  We're also short term oversold in a hurry.  It looks like the possible negative RSI divergences in the small caps are now valid.  We are also practically right back at the uptrend line in the S&P 500 that began in February.  The breakout in the S&P was the 2100 level and I did expect that level to hold.  But after the carnage today, I'm going to have to rethink that idea.  GE fell 7/8 on good volume.  It looks like GE was an early leader all the way along.  We're back to the 200 day moving average here.  Gold fell $9 on the futures as the US dollar was higher.  The XAU shed 5 3/4, while GDX lost 1 1/2.  Volume was heavy.  The positive seasonal factor for gold is not happening this year so far.  However the negative seasonal factor for stocks seems to be now in effect.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The talk today was about the Fed but the Fed has been talked about for weeks.  There may be some trouble in the bond market that we're not aware of but something the market may already know.  It will all be figured out eventually.  The fact that we have already almost reached the near term support for the S&P, probably doesn't bode well.  The weekly charts here have just rolled over on the technical indicators.  I had thought that the double support from the breakout point and the uptrend line from February would contain things if we broke down in the S&P.  I will have to rethink that theory.  I had planned on getting some SPY October calls if we reached 2100 on the S&P.  After today that idea doesn't look so good.  I'm not exactly sure what is going on here but there is a chance that this could be a one day wonder as well.  There are numerous questions at the moment without answers.  Obviously the volatility that had been missing for the past couple of months has returned.  Option premiums will be higher but the potential for profits will return as well.  There will be plenty of work to do over the weekend.  Only a week to go in the September option cycle.  I don't think that I'll be attempting a trade there next week but who knows?  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.   

Muddling through another day as the Dow fell 46 points on better volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is still trying to turn back up.  Directionless is probably the best way to describe the past couple of months.  It appears that the market needs some kind of stimulus to get things moving one way or another.  Only 6 days to go in the September option cycle.  No good trading signal that I can see as of now.  GE was off a couple cents on average volume.  Gold fell $7 on the futures and the US dollar had a slight gain.  The XAU lost 1 3/4, while GDX shed 2/3.  Volume was good.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I still feel that we are going to move higher here but at this rate anything could happen.  I do notice some potential negative RSI divergences on some of the small cap indices.  But they are only potential unless we break down from here.  Something will eventually get things going here but until then, it's more of the same.  It has been one of the least volatile times for the market in quite some time.  It makes for tough trading.  I'm on the sidelines still for now.  Asia was higher overnight with Europe mixed.  We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

Another attempt at a sell off but the market keeps coming back.  The Dow did fall 12 points on light volume but it was off more for much of the day.  The advance/declines were positive and the NASDAQ was higher.  The summation index is turning back up.  It is a market that seems to want to go higher.  So the grind upward is probably going to continue.  However with the lack of volatility, it makes the trading tough.  There simply isn't enough price movement to get the option premiums moving a lot.  I'll continue to wait for a decent signal.  Hopefully sometime soon.  GE was flat on lighter volume and came off of its lows as well.  Gold was down around $5 on the futures as the US dollar was up slightly.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on average volume.  The same coming off of the lows pattern prevailed here as well.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The market is attempting to break out above the months long consolidation but we'll need to see some volume for it to be real.  The TRAN had a good session today and perhaps that will lead things higher.  We are up at near term resistance there.  More short term overbought than oversold for the major stock indices.  It doesn't look like I'll be attempting a trade in the September option cycle at this rate.  You can't try and press things sometimes in the game because it usually leads to trouble.  I will do my best to remain patient and wait for what I deem a decent signal.  It isn't easy.  Europe was higher and Asia generally lower overnight.  Not much important economic data before we finish the week and it looks like the trading for me will be in a holding pattern.  We'll keep an eye on things overnight as usual.  

The grind higher continues as the Dow rose 46 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is trying to turn around here.  If successful, we'll be moving to new all time highs again and perhaps the 2200 level on the S&P 500.  No good technical signal to trade here but I do think that the path of least resistance is higher.  It appears that weaker economic data will be interpreted as positive by the stock market for now.  Eventually if the data continues to be light, that relationship will change.  GE was off 1/4 and the volume was good.  GE is well off of its recent highs and not a good clue as to what the overall market is doing.  Gold rallies on the drop in the dollar.  The precious metal futures were up over 20 bucks as the dollar fell a full point.  The XAU gained almost 5, while GDX added 1 1/3.  Volume was good.  ABX was higher as well and it doesn't appear that it will fall back below $17 and give us a shot at a call trade there.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  All the players are back at their desks and it did not appear as though there were a lot of sellers.  Only 8 days remain in the September option cycle.  If we get a valid signal, perhaps a short term trade will be in the picture.  Otherwise we'll roll out to October.  Volatility has shrunk again.  That implies higher prices in the near term.  I do not see anything on the horizon to negate that view.  Even though we are in a seasonal weak period for stocks, they don't go lower every year.  perhaps things can hold up into the expiration.  That's a guess as usual.  Asia was higher overnight and Europe generally slightly lower.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

We finally got the employment number today and the Dow rallied 72 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive.  The summation index will be trying to turn around again.  We jumped sharply in the first half hour and were never able to get back to that level.  But with the breadth as good as it was, you cannot argue with the gain.  The overall market continues to be positive and there won't be any sustainable decline as long as that is the case.  The trading trouble here is that with the muted day to day action, it's hard to make any money by speculation.  Writing the options continues to be the most profitable idea for now.  GE was up a few cents and the volume was light.  Gold found a bid on the weaker jobs numbers and the futures rose over $10.  However the US dollar came off of its lows and ended positive for the day as well.  The XAU added 3 1/3, while GDX gained 7/8.  Volume was good.  I'll try the ABX call trade again if we get back below 17.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We got the expected upside today but it certainly wasn't anything robust.  Perhaps all the players haven't returned just yet.  Things should get more back to normal after Labor day.  There's one less day left in the 2 week September option cycle with the holiday.  The risk will be elevated.  October has an extra week on the option cycle, so the premiums will be inflated.  The trading is never easy.  The volume on the rallies has been light and we never like to see that.  The short term technical picture for the S&P is now mixed.  The Bollinger bands have now contracted and we have yet to see a big move.  My guess is that it is still coming.  The small caps continue to act well but they are overbought.  This will not last forever.  We are in a weak seasonal period.  I do not know what the catalyst will be for a break from this trading range but I'm going to try and be ready to take advantage of it.  I'll be going over the charts over the long holiday weekend.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

The market again tried to sell off today but made it all the way back.  The Dow finished with a gain of 18 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were  slightly negative.  The summation index is still trending lower.  You just get the feeling that the S&P will be moving higher tomorrow with the recent price action.  The daily candlestick chart now shows 2 hammers at the lower Bollinger band.  The short term technical indicators are mid-range or a bit lower.  I didn't purchase any SPY calls but I certainly think that is the correct play for tomorrow.  We'll see what happens after the employment numbers are released.  GE was off a few cents and the volume was pretty good.  Not sure what to make of that.  Gold was up 5 bucks on the futures as the US dollar was lower ahead of tomorrow.  The XAU rose 3 1/8, while GDX added 7/8.  Volume was heavy.  I did place an overnight order for some ABX September calls after checking the charts last night.  The double top price objective in ABX had been met and the technicals were blown out to the downside.  My order wasn't filled.  ABX was up about 3/4.  I may revisit this idea if we head back below $17.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It is simply a matter of waiting for the jobs report and the market reaction now.  There really isn't anything else to say.  If there would have been a decent signal here, I would have attempted a trade in the SPY.  But I erred on the side of caution.  I do still expect us to move higher in the near term.  We'll see.  Europe and Asia were mixed overnight.  We'll close out the week tomorrow.

Some more downside today as the Dow fell 53 points on better volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is still trending lower.  We were off over 100 points during the session but made a comeback.  Still waiting on Fridays employment report.  But the volume did pick up today so perhaps the players are returning earlier than usual.  If we do get some weakness tomorrow, I might try the SPY September calls.  I'll be looking things over again tonight.  We are short term oversold on some of the major stock indices.  GE was lower by 1/8 and the volume picked up here as well.  Gold fell another $5 or so on the futures.  The US dollar finished little changed.  The XAU dropped 1 2/3, while GDX shed 3/8.  Volume was average.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The Bollinger bands on the S&P 500 are implying a big move in the near future.  My guess will be that it will happen on Friday.  Which way things go is the question.  What I don't want to do here is make a trade just for the sake of making one.  To me things are leaning towards a bullish resolution to the long sideways congestion that we've endured throughout the summer.  It isn't the best signal to go long before Friday but I do believe the odds lean that way.  I'll have to look things over tonight.  Asia was mixed and Europe lower overnight.  My guess is that Thursday will be a wait and see affair.