The Dow keeps climbing as it gained another 21 points on extremely heavy volume.  The advance/declines were barely positive and the overall market was weaker than the Dow.  The summation index is still trying to turn around.  Volume has been incredible lately and it is to the upside.  I do think that this election rally has legs beyond the near term.  I'm still holding on to the SPY November calls but the risk increases with each passing day.  There's only 4 days left in the November option cycle.  This trade still shows a profit but it appears the ideal time to sell has come and gone.  I'm looking for another run to the 2180 level to get rid of them.  Running out of time though and the market is short term overbought.  GE lost 20 cents on lighter volume.  Probably time for a rest here.  Gold lost a few bucks on the futures as the US dollar continues its recent run up.  The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on heavy volume.  Perhaps things have gone too far, too fast for the gold shares.  We'll see as the week unfolds.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Plenty of economic data out this week, beginning with tomorrows retail sales.  Inflation data is coming out as the week progresses.  My thinking is that traders will take care of any business this week as it is a holiday week next week with Thanksgiving.  The technical indicators are overbought on the short term but we have had a pause after the initial huge run up after the election.  Markets tend to stay overbought during up trends and that is what I think we are seeing now.  That is why I've continued to hold on to the SPY November call trade, even though time is running out.  I do think that another attempt at the 2180 level on the S&P 500 is not out of the question this week.  I could be wrong.  Asia was mixed and Europe slightly positive overnight.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

The Dow just keeps on going as it rose 39 points on very heavy volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index is still trying to turn around.  It was a mixed bag as the S&P 500 was lower today but the small stocks rallied.  The volume to the upside has been incredible this week and I believe it means that we'll still see higher prices in the coming weeks.  A new all time high for the Dow and the S&P shouldn't be too far behind.  We saw a lot happen in the markets this week.  It probably won't be this volatile going forward.  I sincerely doubt it.  We are short term overbought on the major stock indices at this point.  Some backing and filling is bound to take place.  My SPY November calls are still in the black but here is only a week to go in the November option cycle.  Getting out of this position with the best profit will be tricky.  Or that time may have already passed.  Plenty to think about over the weekend regarding that trade.  GE was up another 1/3 on good volume.  Probably too late for the January calls there.  Gold got clobbered again as the higher dollar along with higher interest rates have taken the shine off of the precious metal.  The XAU dropped 5 3/4, while GDX lost over 1 3/4.  Volume was very heavy again.  We'll have to see how low we go here.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The price action and volume this week was extremely positive for stocks.  The INDU, TRAN and RUT are just some examples.  I don't expect a repeat of last week going forward but I am certainly positive on the outlook for equities.  Price and volume are things that you can usually count on for direction.  The S&P is overbought in the short run but there's still room to go higher medium term.  Exiting the SPY November call trade will be my main focus next week.  I could maybe give it until Wednesday of next week for the exit.  Anything beyond that would even entail more risk.  As I said before, I may have already missed the ideal exit point.  I'll be checking out the charts over the weekend.  Hopefully we'll see the usual positive expiration week bias but there are no guarantees.  It was quite an interesting trading week to be sure.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

The rally continued for the big caps as the Dow added another 218 points on extremely heavy volume.  The advance/declines were lower though and the NASDAQ was lower.  The summation index is still trying to turn around.  The overall market was much weaker than the Dow and that is usually not a positive sign.  However with the volume expanding to the upside in such a big way, I still think that we're going higher before expiration next week.  The Dow is at a new all time high and I would expect at least the S&P 500 to do the same.  Longer term, it isn't usually bullish when you have the Dow leading the way.  But all we need is the summation index to start moving up and we'll see higher prices on all the major averages.  GE gained 3/4 on more than double normal volume.  And it was higher than that during the session.  I'm still considering the January calls here on a pullback if we get one.  Gold was off about $10 on the futures as the US dollar continues to climb.  The XAU dropped 6 points, while GDX shed 1 7/8.  Volume was extremely heavy.  The higher dollar along with higher interest rates makes gold unattractive at the moment.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I did put in a limit order to sell my SPY November calls but it wasn't filled.  Close but it didn't happen.  At this point it appears that I'll hang on to them until next week.  They are in the black and unless we see some extended decline in the next 6 days, this trade will turn a profit.  Money is pouring into US stocks right now and we are just getting to short term overbought.  Another plus day tomorrow and we'll be there.  Friday is a partial US holiday, with the bond market closed.  Perhaps the stock market will quiet down for a day.  Any declines can be bought in my opinion.  Asia was higher and Europe lower overnight.  We'll finish up a crazy market week tomorrow.

Now that was an interesting 24 market hours.  The US election was an upset as Donald Trump prevailed.  I was wrong on that guess.  Markets around the world collapsed on the realization that Trump was going to become president of the US.  The S&P 500 futures were down over 100 points.  It was incredible.  Even more incredible was the comeback.  The market came all the way back and then some.  The Dow finished today up 256 points on extremely heavy volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is still trying to turn around.  The weak advance/declines for the past 2 sessions is puzzling.  I would have thought that we'd see at least a 2 to 1 or 3 to 1 ratio there.  You can't argue with price though.  My SPY November calls are still in the black.  GE was up almost 1/4 on heavy volume.  Gold, which had rallied $50 overnight finished with a gain of $5 on the futures.  The US dollar was stronger.  The XAU was up 2 2/3, while GDX added 2/3.  Volume was heavy but the gold shares finished well off of their highs.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The stock market crashed and came back all in a 24 hour period.  Well, the futures market did.  The cash market fell a bit this morning but then rallied hard.  We are getting to short term overbought but aren't there yet.  Of course we could always remain overbought once we get there.  I'm inclined to take whatever profit I have in this SPY trade tomorrow but I do think that we're going higher before expiration.  Friday is a semi-holiday for Veterans day and the bond market will be closed.  What happened in the markets last night was crazy and I hope we don't see anything like that again anytime soon.  There is no way to trade that kind of market action using options when the options market is closed.  The volume today was huge and we did break some downtrend lines on various indices.  So I still think that we're going higher.  It is a matter of how much before expiration and when to sell out the current SPY November call position.  I can make a case for holding on until next week but that's something I'll have to think about tonight.  Asia got rocked last night, while Europe was able to follow the US and finished with decent gains.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight action.

Still moving higher today as the Dow rose 73 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is still trying to turn around.  We'll get the election results tonight and go from there.  The market is still not short term overbought yet.  My SPY November calls are still in the black.  I'll seriously be thinking about selling them if we get follow through upside tomorrow morning.  But I do think that this is the start of a longer term move higher.  If we can get the summation index turned back up, that would strengthen the rally theory.  The VIX has room to move lower as well.  GE was up 1/8 on OK volume.  We've made it back to the 50 day moving average here.  Gold was off $4 on the futures and the US dollar was higher as well.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves one way or the other.  Volume was average.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  With most of the earnings out of the way and the election season in the rear view mirror, what will be moving the market next?  That will the question on traders minds and I certainly don't have the answer.  I do know that the summation index is poised to turn back up and that would lead to a sustained move higher.  Hasn't happened yet but I do think that it will.  I think that with 9 days in a row lower for the S&P, the market pretty much sold itself out for the short term.  Unless there is a Trump upset victory tonight, we're going higher and to new all time highs before the year is out.  That's nothing that anybody is talking about now and the market likes to do what is least expected at times.  This could be one of those times.  Europe and Asia were generally higher but not significantly.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

An oversold bounce and then some.  The Dow soared 371 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were about 5 to 1 positive.  I don't think the summation index will be turned around after todays market move but it is on the way to doing so.  Extremely oversold is where we were and we're not overbought yet.  Short covering and some new money came into play today.  My SPY November calls have moved all the way back into the black.  I think that this is the start of a move higher and I think that I'll hold these calls until Wednesday.  Of course I could change my mind.  I certainly did not expect a 46 point move up in one day for the S&P 500.  GE was up 7/8 on good volume.  Over the weekend I considered buying some January calls here but it is probably too late for that.  I still may if we get a pullback but I don't see that happening in the near future.  Gold got whacked as the flight to safety ended.  The precious metal futures fell over $20 as the US dollar was higher.  The XAU fell 2 1/3, while GDX lost a point.  Volume was good.  I'd expect gold and the gold shares to be lower to sideways until after the next Fed meeting.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We gained all that we lost last week in a day.  That wasn't expected by anyone.  Small stocks had huge moves today and the TRAN broke out above overhead resistance.  I think that the move higher has legs.  The advance/decline volume was almost 10 to 1 positive as well.  We'll have to see how the rest of the week plays out but if the gains hold, the medium term picture will turn bullish as well.  So we'll see.  Europe and Asia were higher overnight as well.  The market may be on hold tomorrow to get the election out of the way but I do think that we'll be moving higher.  New all time highs before the year is out?  As we've recently seen, anything is possible.

Down yet again today as the Dow could not hold onto its gains and lost 42 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were barely positive though and the overall market wasn't as weak as the Dow.  The summation index continues lower.  The employment report was just a tad weaker than anticipated.  There is something going on here but I certainly don't know what.  The extreme oversold condition of the market is dangerous but we still haven't seen a collapse.  My SPY November calls are still losers and it will take quite a miracle to get back to break even, if that's even possible.  The bounce that I'm waiting for has never arrived.  Oversold on all levels.  GE was up 1/8 or so on good volume.  Gold was up a couple bucks on the futures and the US dollar was a bit lower.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on average volume.  Still short term overbought for the gold miners.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Very extreme technical conditions at the moment.  This is something that is rarely experienced.  My guess is that we are going to get a giant relief rally after the election next week.  I do not think that we are going to crash.  The market has had that opportunity to collapse all week and it simply meanders its way lower.  The technical position that we're in is rare.  I suppose anything could happen but I would be shocked if we didn't get a huge move to the upside at some point in the coming week.  It may not last but it would be a chance to exit the SPY calls at a smaller loss.  Or who knows?  Perhaps it would be the beginning of a sustained move higher.  2 weeks to go in the November option cycle.  Once again I'll say that I do not know what is going on here with the market.  I do know that the market usually knows more than we do.  The extreme condition that we see today will probably resolve itself with something just as extreme.  Next week should be one of the most interesting market weeks that we've had in a while.  That is my prediction.  I'm also expecting a multi-hundred point move on some day during next week.  And my guess it that it will be to the upside.  I cannot stress enough the strangeness of the stock market at the moment.  The weakness is coming from something but I do not think that it's the US election.  Clinton should win and Congress should be split by party.  Perhaps there's something else that the market knows and we'll eventually find out.  I don't know.  Asia and Europe were mildly lower overnight, again with the exception of the losses in NIKK.  Plenty of charts to study over the weekend.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

The downtrend continues as the Dow fell 29 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index continues lower.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow.  I have no explanation for what we are seeing here.  We are at a point where we should have seen a bounce or a collapse.  Neither has occurred.  The decline is slow and orderly.  Oversold on all indicators with no short covering or relief rally.  My SPY November calls are solidly in the red.  I suppose at this rate I will at least wait for the election before dumping them.  This is one of the strangest market periods that I've seen.  GE was off another 1/4 on light volume.  Gold was off around $5 on the futures as the US dollar continues to the downside.  The XAU rose 1 2/3, while GDX gained 1/2.  Volume was average.  Still overbought on the short term for the gold shares.  Mentally I'm doing OK besides being confused about the goings on here.  Perhaps the employment report tomorrow will bring some added volatility.  That's just a guess.  The VIX is already in the 20's and overbought.  But at the rate things are going here, that won't mean anything.  An extremely puzzling market situation is what we have here, only because the oversold condition persists without any relief.  The trend is obviously down and the small stocks have been the leaders.  Near term support has been violated on many charts and the 200 day moving average is now in play in several instances.  I've been looking for a bounce all week and it hasn't happened.  I guess I can't rule out the status quo move lower until the election.  That is something that I did not count on or expect.  When the normal technical indicators don't work, it usually means we're in extraordinary times.  It certainly doesn't seem like that to me.  But the market always has the final say and the support I saw at 2100 for the S&P 500 hasn't held either.  Asia and Europe were mostly lower with NIKK having the biggest decline.  We'll finish up the week tomorrow on the jobs report.  Interesting times. 

Oversold and still moving lower as the Dow fell 77 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative.  The summation index is heading down.  The Fed announcement came and went.  We got a little rally there but could not hold on.  We are at a spot technically that deserves some upside unless we crash.  I do not expect the market to fall apart here.  The bounce that I'm looking for is long overdue.  The readings on my indicators point to this being an ideal time to buy, even for the medium term.  The roughly 2100 level on the S&P 500 should hold and I'm looking for higher prices from here.  My SPY November calls are well in the red but even these have a chance to get back to break even with just over 2 weeks in the November option cycle.  So we'll see.  GE was off over 1/3 on average volume.  It was a new closing low for GE in its slide.  Gold was up about $20 but fell in the aftermarket.  The US dollar lost ground again.  The XAU and GDX had one day reversals to the downside, opening higher and closing lower.  They lost 1 1/2 and 1/3 respectively on heavy volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It appears that fear and uncertainty have gripped the market.  Unless something is going on under the surface that I'm not aware of, these fears will prove unfounded.  The technical indicators are so oversold that we almost have to move higher.  Some of the major indexes are either at or near their 200 day moving averages.  They should find support there.  The only thing that would negate the positive near term outlook here is a market crash.  When you get the extreme readings we are seeing now along with all the negative market media, it's time to take the other side.  I could be wrong but I really don't think so.  I still expect a decent bounce and it should happen before the close on Friday.  I don't see any surprises with the US election and there should be a relief rally in a week for US equities.  I'm sticking with the theory that SPY calls are the way to go here.  Europe and Asia had decent losses overnight.  We'll be keeping an eye on the overnight action.

Volatility returned today as the Dow fell 105 points on very heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative.  The summation index is still heading lower.  We were off just over 200 at the lows of the session.  The S&P 500 broke the support at 2120 and dipped below 2100.  I think that 2100 should hold things here but the market will go where it wants.  Remaining short term oversold for the major averages and that could be dangerous as we saw today.  However I am still a believer in the SPY November calls at this juncture and I did purchase some today.  Of course I was early and paid more than I wanted to for them.  I should have waited to see if we were going to hit the 2100 level once we broke 2120.  Hindsight is never wrong and does you no good in the heat of the battle.  I'm rusty for sure but what I saw today is opportunity to me.  GE lost about 1/4 on average volume.  Gold found buyers with the drop in equities.  The precious metal futures rose $16 as the US dollar was lower.  The XAU gained 2 1/3, while GDX added almost 2/3.  Volume was good again.  Short term overbought on the gold shares.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I'm not sure where this decline is heading but I do expect a bounce right now.  With the market recovering half of what it lost today, perhaps we've seen the worst of the selling for now.  My owns short term indicators are very oversold and some kind of upside is coming.  Whether or not it's enough to get my SPY November calls in the black is another question.  Timing is everything when it comes to trading options for the short term.  If we do simply continue to trade lower then be ready for some type of collapse.  But I do believe we'll at least hold up here for a couple of days.  We've got the Fed announcement tomorrow and that should really be a non event.  The jobs report on Friday will probably be viewed as more important.  Plus whatever headlines come out of the election propaganda before the 8th.  Plenty of noise for the markets to sift through.  We'll stick to the technicals and expect some upside bounce tomorrow.  Asia was higher and Europe lower overnight.  I'm expecting the 2100 level to hold for the S&P 500 and perhaps will look to try the calls again if we get back there. 

We started the week and finished the month of October pretty much flat on the session.  The Dow fell 18 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were barely positive.  The summation index continues lower.  We were positive for most of the day and did not really see any decline.  I did place an order for the SPY November calls.  It wasn't filled but I am leaving it open overnight.  We are now short term overbought and should be heading higher from here.  A bounce at the least.  I can only hope that I'll be able to take advantage of it.  The VIX was higher today but there wasn't any volatility or decline.  I'm puzzled about that.  We've got economic data due this week and a Fed meeting.  So there will be plenty of excuses for things to happen.  I'm sticking with the buy weakness mantra.  I do believe that it will work here.  GE was off 1/8 after being higher earlier on heavy volume.  Still moving here on the takeover/acquisition talk.  Gold didn't do much today and the US dollar was little changed as well.  The XAU gained 2 1/8, while GDX added 3/4.  Volume was good.  Perhaps the gold shares will be leading the precious metal higher.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We'll begin the month of November tomorrow and the seasonality factor will be positive for stocks despite the election for now.  Plenty of time in the November option cycle.  I'm not sure what the market is waiting for but I do expect positive price action near term.  It would be great to see some weakness early tomorrow morning to perhaps fill my option order but that is just wishful thinking.  I would be surprised if we were lower on the day tomorrow.  The SPY option premiums are too high for my taste at the moment.  That said, the time for the calls is now in my opinion.  Europe and Asia were slightly lower overnight.  We'll see what tomorrow brings. 

Another interesting session as the Dow fell 8 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index continues lower.  We bounced around all over the place today with the overall market continuing to be weaker than the Dow.  The S&P 500 challenged the support at 2120 and bounced off.  Not completely short term oversold for the S&P but we will get there if Monday is negative.  My thinking is that any decline on Monday can be bought.  I'll be looking to purchase the SPY November calls.  The premiums are still high for the strike price that I'm looking at but there will be a short term buy signal if we close lower on Monday.  GE jumped 5/8 today on the possible takeover of a rival.  There is no other explanation for the sudden move in GE.  Volume was 2 times normal.  Gold rose $7 on the futures as the US dollar was lower despite a GDP report that was a bit better than expected.  The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on average volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  My indicators are setting up for a buy on Monday if there is weakness.  I'm not sure if it will be the beginning of a rally or simply another case of relieving the short term oversold condition of the market.  The small stocks have been very weak of late and that isn't a good sign for calls.  The Dow has had better relative strength and that is something that is also a concern.  The daily chart of the Dow also has the Bollinger bands contracting to the point where we should see some type of big move one way or the other soon.  It is altogether possible that we are on the verge of a breakdown.  The lower summation index and small stock under performance are bearish.  However we are technically nearing the condition where we should at least see a bounce after Mondays price action.  I could be wrong but I'll be looking to purchase some SPY November calls.  Perhaps we'll see a final shake out before heading higher.  That would be the ideal scenario.  There will be plenty of charts to study over the weekend.  Monday will end the month of October as well.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

Lower today as we couldn't find any buyers in the final hour.  The Dow fell about 30 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were more than 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index is heading lower.  Once again the overall market was weaker than the Dow with the small stocks leading the way.  That is not a bullish condition.  I canceled my open order for the SPY November calls.  I'd like to try this trade again tomorrow or perhaps Monday if we continue to move lower.  The short term technical indicators for the major averages have rolled over with the exception of the Dow.  Waiting for an oversold reading would be the prudent course of action.  That reading could come on Monday if we continue to trend down.  GE was off 1/4 and the volume was light.  Gold was up a couple bucks on the futures today, while the US dollar was higher.  The XAU shed 1 1/8, while GDX lost 3/8.  Volume was average.  The gold shares now appear to be rolling back over.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX has turned back up and so have its short term technical indicators.  That isn't a positive development.  The summation index is moving lower.  As much as I would like to purchase some SPY November calls, the technical picture is telling a different story.  The small stocks are really under performing lately and that is not a good sign for the bulls.  RUT has already broken the lower boundary of its trading channel and NYA is on the cusp of doing the same.  It appears that my idea for the SPY calls is the wrong one.  But we'll see.  The reaction to the GDP report tomorrow will be the key for Fridays trading I believe.  The final hour drop today wasn't encouraging.  Plenty of time in the November option cycle to do a trade of some sort.  We'll take our cues form the market and right now it is saying that we're headed lower.  Perhaps things won't be cleared up until after the election.  Or not.  Plenty to ponder.  Asia was lower and Europe little changed last night.  We'll close out the week tomorrow.   

A mixed bag today as the Dow was higher but the rest of the indices trailed.  The most watched index gained 30 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 negative.  This should turn the summation index back down and that is not a positive sign.  The overall market was much weaker than the Dow, with the small stocks leading the way lower.  These are not bullish indications.  The short term technical indicators for the major averages have begun to roll over as well, with the exception of the Dow.  The RUT hit a fresh new recent low.  I did place an order for the SPY November calls though but it wasn't filled.  I'm leaving the order in overnight.  GE was up almost 1/4 on light volume.  Gold fell $6 on the futures and the US dollar was a bit lower as well.  The XAU shed 1 7/8, while GDX lost 1/2.  Volume was good.  Mentally I feel OK.  The technical back drop for getting the SPY November calls isn't ideal.  I may be early, as I can make a case for waiting to purchase them until we are short term oversold.  I do expect Friday to be a day of movement in the stock exchanges, off of the 3rd quarter GDP report.  I certainly do not know which way.  We've been in a trend channel for the S&P 500 for 4 months.  The range is roughly 2190-2120.  Once we break out, the move higher or lower should be pretty good.  You want to be in on that.  I'm thinking that we'll have another test of the lower end and that it will hold.  I could be wrong.  For me, the question is whether or not to wait for the GDP number on Friday.  I suppose I'll have to see how we move tomorrow and take it from there.  Europe and Asia were generally lower last night. 

Lower today as the Dow fell 53 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is trending sideways.  Better volume to the downside and that is not a positive.  The market really can't get anything going one way or the other.  Short term overbought and oversold conditions are met with small moves one way or the other to relieve the conditions.  It is a tough and treacherous trading environment.  I am still looking to try the SPY November calls this week if we continue lower.  Perhaps tomorrow will be the day but the technical indicators are not exactly where I want them for a purchase.  I may have to err on the side of caution.  GE was off 1/4 and the volume was light.  Poor performance here is another sign of trouble.  However we've been dropping here for a few months while the overall market has moved sideways.  Gold rose over $10 on the futures as the US dollar finished little changed again.  The XAU was up 2 1/4, while GDX added better than 1/2.  Volume was average.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well.  I am still recovering from my hospital nightmare but do feel well enough to trade.  The short term technical indicators for the major averages are starting to roll over again.  That is one of my concerns in attempting to place a trade on the call side in the next few days.  We do have some economic data coming out in the next 3 days.  The most market worthy in my mind will be the first look at GDP for the 3rd quarter on Friday.  I do believe that will be a mover for equities and as always the question is which way?  I'm now thinking that if we head lower into Thursday morning, that will be where I'd take a chance on the November calls.  But we still have tomorrow to get through.  Things are never set in stone with this game.  We could also simply head down from here and take out the lows.  That would negate any ideas of trading in calls near term.  So there's plenty to keep an eye on this week.  Europe and Asia were mixed overnight, with nominal moves.  We'll get earnings from AAPL after the bell and that could set the tone for tomorrow.

We begin the week with a nice gain as the Dow rose 77 points on what passes for average volume these days.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is still trying to turn around and I believe that it will.  The small stocks along with the overall market were stronger than the Dow.  That's a positive and that's what I'd like to see.  Getting short term overbought for the major indices.  Any weakness now can be bought in my opinion.  I'm looking at the SPY November calls and if we see some pullback this week, that is what I will purchase for the next trade.  The ideal scenario would be a down day tomorrow with follow through on Wednesday morning.  That would be the purchase time if things occur in that order.  The market rarely cooperates.  GE was of a few cents on average volume.  Gold fell a couple bucks on the futures.  The US dollar didn't move much.  The XAU lost 1 3/4, while GDX shed 1/2.  Volume was average.  The short term technical indicators for the gold shares appear to be rolling back over here.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We're still waiting for something to happen with the months long trend channel that we've been stuck in.  My short term indicators say that we should see some downside tomorrow but they aren't right all the time.  Nothing is.  Plenty of time in the November option cycle to make a trade.  Perhaps I'm wrong here and we will simply continue to move sideways.  However with the summation index attempting to turn back up, I'm going to take my cues from there.  Europe and Asia were generally higher last night, although the FTSE was down.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments and go from there.

The Dow lost 16 points today on what passes for average volume these days.  The advance/declines were barely positive.  We sold off early and spent the rest of the day trying to get back to even.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow, with the small stocks leading the way.  That is a positive.  I'll be looking to get some SPY November calls on weakness next week.  Another test of the recent lows would be the ideal scenario for me.  GE was off about a dime and followed the overall market pattern for the session.  Down early and trying to come back.  My idea of purchasing the calls and puts only would have worked if you sold out of both positions in the first 5 minutes of trading.  The profit would have been small and certainly not worth the risk.  The calls would have been wiped out and the gain on the puts would have barely put the 2 trades into the black.  The price movement on the earnings wasn't big enough to make that idea worth it.  But of course, you don't know that ahead of time.  The gold futures were flat with the US dollar higher yet again.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on very light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We made it through option expiration week and it was pretty tame considering that it's October.  I'd like to think that the market is going to hold in here and some type of rally is about to begin.  The short term technical indicators for the major indices are still mid-range.  The summation index is trying to turn around here in my opinion.  We're at an important point for the S&P.  If we roll over and take out the support at 2120, we could see a decent decline.  But it seems to me like the market wants to hang in here with the recent price action.  What I don't want to see is more of the same sideways price action that leads to nowhere.  With the November option cycle now in play, we have a full 4 weeks of time premium left.  More sideways inaction will erode the premium and make outright speculation even more difficult that it already is.  But we all know that you can't tell the market what to do.  It will get where it's going in its own time.  I'm sticking with the SPY November calls theory for now.  Europe and Asia were mixed last night with slight price moves.  I'll check the charts over the weekend as usual.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break. 

Bouncing around today as the Dow fell 40 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is trying to turn around.  What happens here with the summation index should tell us if we are going to get some type of rally or plummet.  That is what I believe right now.  The short term indicators for the S&P are back to mid-range  I also still expect a positive resolution to the multi-month channel that the S&P 500 is in.  I'm still looking at the SPY November calls as the next trade.  GE was flat and the volume was average for lately.  I did like the idea of getting both the $29 puts and calls for October, with the earnings due tomorrow.  However I did not risk any money on this idea.  We'll see if it would have worked.  Gold was off a few bucks on the futures and the US dollar was higher today.  The XAU and GDX both had very slight fractional losses on pretty light volume.  It's possible that the decline in the gold shares is over.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Not a lot of volatility considering it is option expiration week.  Things have been pretty orderly so far.  We've worked off the short term oversold condition, so there's a possibility that we'll head back to test the recent lows again.  If that occurs, I will be getting some SPY November calls unless the retest is a collapse.  I don't believe that will be the case.  Perhaps the recent slight move higher has some legs as well.  We are going to have to let the market figure things out.  Many are cautious at the moment and you usually don't get a big decline with that type of environment.  But who knows?  Europe and Asia were both higher in overnight trade.  We'll close out the week with option expiration Friday.

We managed to continue higher today as the Dow rose 40 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is trying to turn around here.  Today may have stopped the decline in the summation index.  This is important as it would signify that the broader market is gaining strength.  I'm a believer in this hypothesis and will continue to look at the SPY November calls as the next trade.  The market softened after the release of the Feds beige book but it was not a wholesale decline.  It is option expiration though and things could get tricky in the next 2 days.  The S&P 500 has bounced off of a short term oversold condition.  GE was up a few cents and came off of its highs.  Volume was about average for lately.  Expect movement here on Friday with the earnings release.  Perhaps purchasing both puts and calls at the $29 strike price would be a good idea.  Gold added $7 on the futures as the US dollar finished little changed again.  The XAU rose 2 1/4, while GDX gained 2/3.  Volume picked up.  A nice bounce so far this week for the gold shares.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  2 days doesn't make a trend but I like the fact that the market has held up at this juncture.  Of course it remains to be seen if this is the start of something real of just another fluctuation in the continuing trend channel.  If we can get the summation index turned around, that would be an important clue.  I would like to let this week pass and then attempt to purchase the SPY November calls next week.  That is the ideal scenario for me at the moment.  the market rarely cooperates though.  I am more and more leaning towards a bullish resolution to the ongoing price action though.  I do not see a collapse here as imminent.  I could be wrong.  Asia was mixed, with Europe slightly positive overnight.  We'll keep an eye on aftermarket developments.

We did get a slight bounce today as the Dow rose 75 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive.  The summation index is still heading lower though.  However the overall market was stronger than the Dow.  The short term technical indicators have turned up from an oversold reading but that doesn't mean that a rally is imminent.  We could simply turn back down again tomorrow.  I would be more convinced of a sustained move higher if we can build on today and get the summation index turned around.  Hasn't happened yet.  I am still looking at the SPY November calls though.  GE was up 1/8 on light volume.  Gold gained $7 on the futures as the US dollar was little changed.  The XAU added 3 1/8, while GDX gained 7/8.  Volume was OK.  We've held the 200 day moving average on the gold shares for now.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The economic data today was in line with expectations.  We'll get the Feds beige book tomorrow and that could be a mover.  It would be a positive if we could build on todays gains.  However the volume remains anemic and that is troublesome in either direction.  Plus there's the possibility that we're on hold until the election here is over.  We did get a signal for a bounce and it worked.  But where we go from here is the next question.  I don't have the answers at the moment.  Both Europe and Asia were positive overnight.  We'll keep an eye on things tonight as it appears that INTC disappointed with its earnings in the aftermarket.