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Friday, September 07, 2012

It was a sideways trading day with a bit of a pop at the close.  The Dow was higher by 14 points on better than average volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The employment numbers were weak but the market didn't care.  We're heading higher.  There is no overhead resistance.  We should at least run up into the September option expiration.  Declines can be bought.  If we get to short term oversold, I might try the OEX calls.  However people will be buying nay dip because they have missed the move, so getting oversold would be difficult.  GE was up 1/4 on lighter volume.  It is the same story here, we've broken out above resistance.  Calls are the trade here.  I'll check the option premiums over the weekend.  Gold had a stellar day as the US dollar broke a longer term uptrend line that was a year in duration.  The gold futures were higher by $34.  The XAU gained 5 1/2.  ABX up 1 1/8, GG rose 7/8 and NEM added 3/4.  Volume was good.  I'll be looking to buy the October gold share calls again if we see some pullback.  Overbought and staying there.  All signs point to higher prices for gold as well.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired and of course discouraged for selling the October ABX calls yesterday.  But you have to keep moving on in the game.  The stock indices have broken out to the upside and we'll have to see how far they can run.  We might get a pullback to the breakout point but we also might not.  I'll be looking for long entries over the weekend.  We've got the Fed next week and that will be the catalyst for the next move in the markets.  There was heavy volume in the ABX October 40 calls yesterday and today.  That was a precursor for higher gold share prices when it happened with the October ABX 34 calls in August.  It appears to be the case again.  I'll try to come up with a game plan over the weekend to get some gold share calls again.  For now it is Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Thursday, September 06, 2012

We got the resolution to the direction of the market today as the Dow climbed 244 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive.  The ECB spoke and the markets liked what they heard.  It doesn't really matter if it works or not.  The market has spoken and we should listen.  We broke through the 1420 level on the S&P 500.  There is nothing in the way of higher prices.  We will get the employment report tomorrow but even if we drop, I think that any decline can be bought.  The McClellan oscillator will be moving back to the upside after todays action.  GE was up almost 2/3 on good volume.  The 50 day moving average held once again.  I may try the calls here despite the good move up today.  The weekly chart for GE is looking constructive.  Gold rallied as well.  The futures were up over $10.  I would have liked to see a better move in gold today.  The US dollar was slightly lower.  The XAU rose over 4 points and is at the 200 day moving average on the daily charts.  ABX was up 7/8, while GG and NEM gained 1 1/4.  Volume was good.  I sold my October ABX calls.  The profit was 160%.  I could be early to exit here.  I noticed that the volume expanded at the close on these options.  The last time that happened with the ABX October 34 calls, we saw higher prices in the near term.  We also closed on the high of the day for ABX and that is usually bullish.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The markets powered higher today.  Shorts were squeezed.  The Dow transports haven't confirmed the move higher but could in time.  Gold though overbought is still a buy in my opinion.  The gold shares outperformed gold itself today and that is a positive going forward.  I will try and buy back some gold share calls cheaper in the days ahead.  I am going to stick to the October series for now.  We've got the employment number tomorrow and that should be a mover as well.  Stay tuned. 

Wednesday, September 05, 2012

A waiting game as the Dow rose 11 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  Today the overall market was weaker than the Dow.  Nothing to do but wait for the ECB tomorrow.  I still think that we will take another shot at 1420 on the S&P 500 in the near future.  As always, I could be wrong and often am.  GE was up 1/8 on lighter volume.  Still holding at the 50 day moving average on the daily charts.  Gold was little changed today as the US dollar didn't do much either.  The XAU was off 1/4.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional moves one way or the other on light volume.  The same wait and see attitude going on here as well.  Mentally I'm feeling tired, did not sleep well.  If we don't get moving tomorrow on the ECB, we should get going off of the employment numbers on Friday.  That's the idea for now.  My ABX October calls are still in the black and the price isn't moving much.  We'll see what happens tomorrow and go from there.

Tuesday, September 04, 2012

Welcome back everybody is what the markets would like to say as the summer has now passed on by.  It was a mixed market as the Dow fell about 55 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow.  We were lower during the day but made some what of a comeback.  There will be an ECB announcement on Thursday and we've got the employment number on Friday.  The technicals on the stock indices are oversold here short term so I'm still in the bullish camp.  GE was lower by over an 1/8.  Volume here looks to be average and the recent uptrend line has been violated.  We are at the 50 day moving average on the daily charts and we'll see if that holds.  Gold gained $8 on the futures, which was a carryover from Friday.  The US dollar was a bit higher today.  The XAU was flat.  ABX and GG had fractional losses.  NEM led the way lower by 7/8.  NEM leading the way down isn't usually bullish for the gold shares going forward.  Volume was light.  My October ABX calls are still in the black.  The gold shares are overbought here short term.  My guess is that near term gold will do the opposite of what the US dollar does.  The US dollar is right at a longer term weekly uptrend line that has been in effect for a year.  Things will get interesting for this ABX trade.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well.  The stock indexes are waiting for the next bit of news and we'll have to see what the reaction is.  I'm going to remain bullish for now but of course, anything can happen.  The ABX October call trade is still showing a profit.  Gold has had a nice near term run here and I would expect it to take a rest.  The timing of that is the question.  Plenty of time on the ABX trade but that doesn't mean it will remain profitable.  Always plenty of questions in this game.  We'll keep an eye on things overnight and see what develops tomorrow.

Friday, August 31, 2012

Big Ben spoke and the markets reacted as the Dow rose 90 points on better volume but still light.  The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive.  It wasn't exactly a broad based rally in my opinion but we'll take it.  The question is what happens when the Fed meets next month?  If they don't do anything, how will the markets react?  If they do something, then what is left to do?  Plenty of questions as usual in this game.  The technicals still remain oversold on the stock indices so there is plenty of room to move higher in my opinion.  But anything can happen.  We still need to get through 1420 with good volume on the S&P 500 to start the next leg up.  That's a guess as usual.  GE was up a touch and the volume was light.  I actually had a brief thought of getting some September calls here today but did not.  I'll reconsider this idea over the weekend.  Gold had a good day after Bernankes speech as the US dollar fell.  The precious metal futures rose $30 and a bit more in the aftermarket.  The XAU gained 7 points.  ABX up 1 3/8, GG rose 1 5/8 and NEM led the way higher by 2 1/8.  Volume was good for a holiday Friday to confirm the move up.  We are right back to the 170 level on the XAU that has contained the gold shares up until now.  It looks like we could break through next week if the momentum higher continues.  ABX closed above the $38 level for the week.  We'll see if it can build on that with some volume.  My October ABX calls gained some ground today.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  All the players should be back next week so I'd expect things to start to pick up for the markets.  I'm still a believer in higher prices going forward for the stock indexes.  However the market as usual will go where it wants.  I might add a trade in GE next week for September.  I'll try and figure that out this weekend.  Gold has broken out to the upside in my opinion but the next question is how far will it go?  I'll have to check the resistance levels over the weekend.  You don't want to leave a lot of profit on the table but you don't want to get greedy either.  It's never easy in the game.  Plenty to ponder and an extra day this weekend to think on things.  For now it's a Friday afternoon in the late summer.  Time for a rest. 

Thursday, August 30, 2012

A bit of movement finally before the Bernanke blabbering tomorrow as the Dow fell 106 points on the usual light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  No apparent reason for todays decline but I still think we are digesting the gains before tackling the 1420 level on the S&P 500 again.  But I could be wrong and often am.  Getting oversold on the stock index technicals.  We'll get past Labor Day and see what happens after that.  GE fell 1/8 and the volume was extremely light again.  Nothing new to report there.  The gold futures were down another $5 as the US dollar showed a slight gain.  The XAU fell 1 2/3.  ABX, GG and NEM all moved very little on light volume.  My ABX October calls remain in the black but aren't doing much.  I suppose the gold shares will move tomorrow on what they hear or don't hear from Bernanke.  Waiting on the end of the Labor Day weekend here as well.  Mentally I'm a bit tired, could have slept better.  I still think that the stock indices will hold up here but anything can happen I guess.  I also believe the gold shares are simply digesting their recent gains before they move higher above resistance.  That would be through the 170 level on the XAU and the $38 level on ABX.  We'll see.   

Wednesday, August 29, 2012

Nothing new to report today as the song remains the same.  The Dow gained 4 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  Economic data came and went.  We still fell in the final hour and that remains a near term problem for the bullish cause.  Still in a holding pattern until next week in my opinion.  GE was flat and the volume was extremely light.  The final week of summer has really taken hold.  The market players on on hiatus.  Gold fell today, off $6 on the futures and more in the aftermarket.  The US dollar was higher today.  The XAU dropped 1 3/4.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on light volume.  Just a waiting game here as well.  I'm still a believer that we are consolidating the recent gains for the moment and then will break through the resistance.  But that's a guess as usual.  Still overbought on the gold shares.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The stock indexes are headed nowhere for now.  There is no apparent catalyst for stocks this week.  Perhaps Bernanke on Friday can get things going.  However the volume will be light regardless.  Simply hold on until Labor Day and then we'll get things moving one way or the other.  I'm still holding the October ABX calls and they're still in the black for now.  If and when we get through the $38 level with good volume on ABX, these calls should show some decent gains.  Hasn't happened yet.  2 days left before a long holiday weekend.  Patience is needed and advised.     

Tuesday, August 28, 2012

Just marking time here as we meander through the last week of the summer.  Doldrums to the max as the Dow fell 21 points on very light volume again.  The advance/declines were positive.  We dropped in the final hour again and that isn't bullish.  Seems like we're just waiting for Bernanke on Friday and when that's done we'll wait for the employment report the following Friday.  The players are still on vacation.  We'll have to be patient here.  GE was flat and the volume extremely light.  Nothing new to report here.  Gold fell a bit over $5 today on the futures despite a weaker US dollar.  That isn't bullish for the gold cause.  The XAU was off a touch.  Trying to get through the 170 level on the XAU to signal the next leg up.  ABX, GG and NEM had fractional moves one way or the other and of course the volume is very light.  My October ABX calls are still in the black.  We still need to get through the $38 level on good volume here to break through the resistance.  The gold shares remain overbought.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well.  The economic data today was a non-event.  The environment remains one of no volume and lack of conviction.  I believe that will change in a week.  Until then it is simply a wait and see game.  I think gold is simply taking a rest here before we move higher but that is a guess as usual.  We'll try and remain patient for now.  More economic data out tomorrow and we'll keep an eye on Europe as well.

Monday, August 27, 2012

A mixed, mundane Monday as the Dow fell 33 points on very light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The Dow led the way down as other stock indices were not as negative.  We did continuously lose ground in the final hour and that is not a positive.  In a holding pattern here as far as I'm concerned as we wait for everyone to return next week.  Plenty of economic data out this week but we'll have to see if it means anything to the market.  GE was up a touch on the same very light volume.  Nothing new to report here.  Gold was up a couple bucks on the futures but fell in the aftermarket.  The US dollar was flat today.  The XAU dropped 2 1/8.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on light volume.  My ABX October calls are still in the black but losing ground on a daily basis.  The volume is light here and that is what you'd like to see on a decline.  However we haven't been able to break through the $38 level of resistance, which is also at the weekly downtrend line from February.  Plenty of time left on these options but selling them last week and then buying them back looks like the proper strategy that I did not follow.  The gold shares remain overbought.  We'll see what happens going forward.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The stock indexes are in a wait and see mode here as the 1420 level on the S&P 500 remains key in my opinion.  If we can get through there with some volume it would be bullish.  Gold is due to take a rest.  As long as it doesn't turn into a protracted decline I think the bullish cause will remain positive.  That's a guess as usual.  Nothing out of Europe lately and we've still got Bernanke on Friday to deal with.     

Friday, August 24, 2012

Back to the upside today as the Dow gained 100 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  You had to figure some kind of bounce would arrive.  We are still in a summer drift, grind our way higher mode.  The volume has been very light and I don't think you can really trust things one way or the other here.  I'll repeat that I don't think this is the start of a big decline.  We really have to wait until after Labor Day to figure out where we are going in my opinion.  But I could be wrong and often am.  GE was up 1/8 on light volume.  We are right at the daily uptrend line.  If you like the calls here, today was probably the day to take a chance and pick them up.  No trades for me here at the moment.  Gold was flat on the futures today which wasn't bad considering we had a bit of strength in the US dollar.  The XAU was flat as well.  ABX, GG and NEM had fractional moves one way or the other on light volume.  My ABX October calls are still in the black but lost some ground today.  The gold shares are overbought here and I'm not sure how much longer I'll hold onto these calls.  I'm still thinking that I can sell them and then buy them back cheaper later on.  But that's a guess.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The stock indices turned around today and we'll have to see if they can keep it up next week.  A fair amount of economic data will be out.  We've also got Bernanke flapping his gums on Friday.  However it's still considered the summer and trading should remain thin.  Gold had a nice week but we're overbought here and maybe need to take a rest.  We could simply go straight up but I doubt it.  I'll have to go over the charts this weekend and decide from there.  The trading is never easy.  We'll see what happens next week.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Thursday, August 23, 2012

Continuing lower as the Dow fell 115 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index is now pointing lower.  I still don't think this is the start of something big to the downside.  However the technicals have rolled over for the stock indexes.  It is still summertime vacation mode though.  We'll be short term oversold in a day or so.  We should drift back up after that.  That's my guess at the moment.  GE was off 1/8 on light volume and we have come back to the uptrend line that began in June.  This could be the place to get some GE calls.  I don't think I'm going to attempt a trade here though because I'm already involved with the ABX trade.  Gold continued to rally today as the futures were up over $30, adding to yesterdays aftermarket gains.  The US dollar was just a bit lower today.  The XAU only rose 1/3 and that is troubling going forward for the bulls.  ABX had a fractional gain, while GG and NEM each lost 1/4.  Volume was good here and there is interest once again in the gold shares.  My October ABX calls are still in the black.  We are just about at the resistance for ABX on the daily and weekly charts.  The volume has been good lately.  I think that we will break through to the upside but when is the question.  Very overbought here short term but I'm now thinking about simply holding the calls because there is a lot of time left on them and I think ABX will breakout to the upside.  I could be wrong.  Gold itself has broken out to the upside and the trend has changed from sideways to up.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Who knows?  Maybe I'm wrong about the stock indices here and we are in the beginning of a decent decline.  The weekly charts of the indexes look like they may be putting in tops.  I'm still sticking with the bullish scenario for now.  Gold has had a nice breakout and the volume is confirming it.  Any pullbacks can be bought in my opinion.  Overbought short term for now though.  Haven't heard anything out of Europe for a while but that could change at any moment.  End of the week tomorrow. 

Wednesday, August 22, 2012

A mixed market today as the Dow fell 30 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow.  Simply working off the overbought condition before moving higher is my guess at the moment.  The market was lower but made a comeback after the Fed minutes release that implied more easy money coming soon.  Not sure if that will happen or not.  Whatever the case it's still a light volume summer market mood.  We need to get through 1420 on the S&P 500 to start another leg up.  GE still a bit lower today and still light volume.  Nothing new to report there.  Gold rallied after the Fed minutes and the futures actually closed a couple of bucks lower but rose $15 in the aftermarket.  The US dollar fell again on the prospect of another easing.  The XAU was up 3 2/3.  ABX up 3/4, GG and NEM rose a buck.  Volume was OK again.  My ABX October calls are now solidly in the black.  The gold shares are very overbought here and I am still considering dumping the ABX calls before the end of the week.  However the longer term gold share charts still look very constructive for more gains.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I'm guessing the remaining 2 days of the week will be a slow drift to nowhere.  Things should get somewhat back to normal after Labor Day.  The stock indexes remain overbought even with a couple of days decline but that doesn't mean that they can't move higher.  Gold has broken out to the upside as the US dollar has fell in the past couple of days.  Not sure how long that will last as the dollar has trend line support at the 81 level.  Volume has been good for gold here though and that is bullish going forward.  One thing for sure about trading, it's never easy.  ABX has resistance at $38 and we are just about there.  If we get through $38 there will be more gains to come.  We'll keep an eye on the markets overnight and take it from there.    

Tuesday, August 21, 2012

Movement to the downside today as the Dow fell 68 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The overall market was weak but not as much as the Dow.  I do not think this is the beginning of some long, protracted decline.  The stock indices are overbought and need to take a rest.  I don't see any huge rally in the offing either.  Of course I could be wrong on both counts.  It wouldn't be the first time.  I still think that nothing of great consequence will happen until all the traders return to the game after Labor Day.  GE was off a bit again on light volume.  Still in a sideways holding pattern with regards to GE.  We still need to see a break through $21 on good volume to resume the uptrend there.  Gold had a good day on a weaker US dollar.  The precious metal futures rose almost $20.  The XAU gained 4 1/3 but was higher.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on better volume.  These issues were higher as well but fell back during the day.  My ABX October calls are now in the black.  I am seriously considering selling them this week but the weekly charts on the gold shares still have plenty of room to run.  However I think that selling them soon and trying to buy them back cheaper may be the best move for now.  We'll see.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  A pullback in the stock indexes today and we've been waiting a while for that to happen.  My technical work suggests that it won't last long or be too deep.  It's still a slow summer trading environment.  Gold broke above the resistance at $1625 and we will have to see how far it runs.  The favorable seasonality factor of August and September is on golds side.  However volume has been light.  We'll have to see if there is any follow through tomorrow. 

Monday, August 20, 2012

We sold off early and spent the rest of the day coming back as the Dow fell 3 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summer doldrums remain in place with no end in sight.  Not a lot of economic data out this week as well.  So we will see if the drift higher continues as we are at the resistance of 1420 for the S&P 500.  Otherwise it's just another Monday in the summer.  GE lost a touch on light volume.  Nothing new here as well, trying to see if a breakout above $21 occurs.  Gold was up 3 bucks or so on the futures as the US dollar dropped a tad.  Not much going on here either.  The XAU was up a point.  ABX and NEM had fractional gains, while GG lost a fraction.  Volume was light.  My October ABX are slightly in the black.  I'm still considering dumping them this week but I would like to see ABX get to $38 first.  May or may not happen.  Overbought on the gold shares to be sure as well as the stock indices.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Not much else to add today.  It is a summer snooze fest for the most part.  Nothing coming out of Europe and most of the players remain on vacation.  There is nothing wrong with remaining on the sidelines until Labor Day.  We'll see what transpires tomorrow but it will probably be more of the same.

Friday, August 17, 2012

The beat goes on as the Dow rose another 25 points on light volume today.  The advance/declines were positive.  Extremely overbought now but that doesn't mean that we can't go higher.  What it does mean is that we are probably getting close to a point where the stock indexes will want to take a rest.  The summation index continues to the upside though.  I still feel that the best course of action would be inaction for now.  There's also an extra week on the September option cycle so the option premiums will be pricey.  Patience is recommended.  GE was off a bit on light volume.  We've been basically moving sideways here for a month.  The technicals for GE remain overbought.  Perhaps the calls will be in order when we get oversold.  Gold was little changed on the day as the US dollar was higher.  The XAU fell 2/3.  ABX, GG and NEM had fractional moves one way or the other on light volume.  The technicals here are overbought and look like they are about to roll over.  My ABX October calls are at break even.  I am going to have to seriously consider getting rid of them next week in hopes of buying them back cheaper later on.  The weekly charts still look good here but the dailies are overbought.  It's something to ponder over the weekend.  Mentally I'm a bit tired.  It's been a nice summer rally for the stock indices.  However nothing lasts forever and the volume hasn't been anything to write home about.  I am also hearing analysts on TV that are all bullish and they are rarely correct.  The CBOE call/put ratio is also the highest that it's been in quite some time.  So I would not be thinking that we are just going to continue moving higher.  But I could be wrong and often am.  I still like the gold shares going forward but they may need to take a rest as well.  Speaking of taking a rest, it's Friday on a hot summer afternoon and time for a break. 

Thursday, August 16, 2012

Some movement to the upside today as the Dow gained 85 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index continues higher.  Very overbought both short and medium term for the stock indices.  That doesn't mean that we can't go higher but some pullback should occur soon.  No reason for todays move but we can use expiration week and a falling US dollar as excuses.  The summer rally continues but the volume has been light and we never trust light volume rallies.  GE was up a bit again on light volume.  Stalling at the 21 dollar level here.  If we get through 21 we should move higher since it is the resistance on the weekly chart.  Hasn't happened yet.  Gold was higher by $12 on the futures with a weaker US dollar.  The XAU rose 5 points.  The continuing relative strength of the gold shares vs. gold itself remains a positive going forward.  ABX gained 1 1/3, GG up by 1 3/4 and NEM rose a buck.  Volume continues to be underwhelming here.  My October ABX calls have moved into the black.  ABX is pretty overbought at the moment.  I'm thinking of dumping the calls and trying to buy them back but I'll continue to hold them for now.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, could have slept better.  We're almost to the resistance of 1420 on the S&P 500.  The market has the feel as though we are going to break through that level.  Might need to back and fill first.  There hasn't been any negative headlines out of Europe for a while but that could happen at any time.  We'll get through expiration tomorrow and go from there.  The gold shares are acting better but gold itself is still in a sideways channel.  If we can get gold to break out of the channel to the upside then the gold shares will continue higher in my opinion.  That is probably just stating the obvious.  We'll see about the option expiration and go from there.

Wednesday, August 15, 2012

More of the same drift today as the Dow fell 7 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow.  There is nothing new to report really.  It is a summer doldrums environment.  The stock index technicals are overbought and staying there.  Expiration week, no volatility and a lack of participants.  The recent McClellan oscillator signal for a decent move did not pan out.  So on we go and there are no changes for the foreseeable future.  GE was little changed, the volume was light and this sounds like a broken record.  Gold was up $4 on the futures and the US dollar was a bit higher as well.  The XAU was up 2/3.  ABX and NEM had fractional upsides moves, while GG dropped a tad.  Volume was light.  My ABX October calls remain in the red.  Nothing new to report here as well.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  There is no need to press any issue right now.  When the stock indices are quiet and simply drift there is no need to force things.  The trading arena will pick up down the road.  This is the reality of the market that we find ourselves in today.  Patience is necessary and mandatory.  We'll see what tomorrow brings but the odds are it will be more of the same. 

Tuesday, August 14, 2012

Another day another case of the doldrums.  We are really in a low volume malaise here as the Dow gained just 2 points.  The advance/declines were negative.  Not even a decent retail sales report could get things going today.  So this is the trading environment that we are faced with.  It could continue for the rest of August.  As I have said before, the sidelines are not a bad place to be for now.  Volatility tried to spike today but it wasn't much.  3 days left in the August option cycle.  GE was off a touch and the volume was light.  Nothing new to report here.  Gold fell again, down another $10 on the futures.  The US dollar was up just a tad.  The XAU fell a point.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on light volume.  I still like the way the gold shares have held up here despite the recent sell-off in gold.  That should be bullish going forward.  Mentally I'm doing OK.  No need to force the issue here with regards to trading.  There aren't that many players out there.  Sometimes it is better to simply remain patient.  I believe that we are in one of those times now.  However the work still needs to be done on a daily basis and I will continue doing that of course.  The trading should get back to normal after Labor Day.   

Monday, August 13, 2012

Kind of a mixed bag today as the Dow fell 38 points on very light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  We sold off hard early and came back for most of the day.  It is expiration week so the positive bias should assert itself at some point.  Plenty of economic data out this week as well.  Volume has been pretty tepid in August so I would not get too wrapped up in whatever transpires this week.  GE was off 1/8 on the same pretty light volume.  We're getting no forward signals from this issue lately.  Chalk it up to the summer doldrums I guess.  Gold fell $10 on the futures today despite weakness in the US dollar.  The XAU dropped 2 1/3.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on light volume.  My October ABX calls are still in the red.  The gold shares are short term overbought here so some type of pullback or weakness is to be expected.  Gold itself needs a breakout above $1625 to get things going to the upside.  Mentally I'm feeling better but not 100% yet.  It feels like we are simply marking time here with the stock indexes.  Very light volume with a slight upwards bias is the story for now.  Gold remains in the same trading range since early May.  There is nothing to do but wait for a breakout one way or the other.  It is not a bad time to be on the sidelines.  Haven't had a headline out of Europe in a while.  We'll see how long that can continue. 

Friday, August 10, 2012

We opened lower and closed higher but it was an extremely light volume levitation as the Dow gained 42 points.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  It was a Friday session in the summer.  I don't think you can really read much into it.  The McClellan oscillator is telegraphing a decent move in the next day or two.  Not sure which way it will be.  Short term overbought and staying there.  Expiration week coming up.  GE moved very little and the volume was very little.  No trades in mind there at the moment.  Gold gained a couple bucks on the futures as the US dollar dropped just a touch.  The XAU was up 7/8.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on light volume.  The weekly candlestick charts show some promise for these issues but the volume is lacking.  I continue to hold on to my October ABX calls and they continue to wallow in the red.  Mentally I'm still ill and hope to rest over the weekend and be back at full strength.  It was a summer doldrums week and I expect more of the same going forward.  The September option premiums will be high because there is an extra week on them.  I doubt that I will have any new trades before Labor day.  Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Thursday, August 09, 2012

A mixed bag today as the Dow was lower by 10 points while the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ were higher.  The advance/declines were positive and the volume anemic.  It is a summer doldrums week.  Perhaps more of the same coming for the rest of August.  If you want to take a break, now is the time.  We may see some movement in expiration week but that's a guess as usual.  I'm on the sidelines with regards to the OEX.  GE gained a nickel and we're still overbought here.  No trades for me here either.  Gold was up $4 on the futures despite a rise in the US dollar.  That's encouraging for the gold bulls.  The XAU gained 1 7/8.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on extremely light volume.  Overbought on the short term technically for the gold shares.  My ABX calls remain in the red.  Mentally I'm still feeling ill and am exhausted.  I need to get some rest.  Tomorrow should be a slow wrap up of a slightly positive week for the stock indices.

Wednesday, August 08, 2012

Summer days lead to summer daze as we drift around aimlessly.  The Dow managed 7 points to the upside today on very light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  It seems as though we are losing steam here but I could be wrong.  Not much to report and the rest of the week should be the same.  GE lost 1/8 on light volume.  The technicals remain overbought here.  Gold was up 3 bucks on the futures as the US dollar was practically flat on the day.  Slow here as well.  The XAU was off 2/3 and opened higher but closed lower.  That's a one day reversal to the downside.  ABX and GG were lower by 1/4, while NEM was up 1/4.  Volume was light.  My October ABX calls almost made it back to break even today but then faded.  They are still in the red.  I did notice yesterday that the volume for the October ABX 34 calls was extremely heavy.  This came out of nowhere.  Today the open interest in this option expanded dramatically.  Somebody is making a huge bet here.  Mentally I'm still not feeling well with the flu or something.  Luckily for me the market is slow at the moment.  Nothing else to report today.

Tuesday, August 07, 2012

More drift higher as the Dow gained 51 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive.  Overbought and staying there, which is a condition that could persist.  The trend remains sluggishly up.  Probably too late for some August OEX calls but we'll see.  As I said yesterday probably the most prudent course of action is waiting things out.  GE was up 1/8 on light volume.  Same technical condition as the overall market for GE.  Overbought and staying there.  Gold lost a touch today as the US dollar was a bit lower as well.  The XAU rose 2 points.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains of at least 1/2 on light volume.  The gold shares continue to outperform at the moment.  My October ABX calls are still in the red.  Mentally I'm still not feeling 100%.  Slow summer trading is what we are seeing for now.  I expect that to continue for the rest of the week.  The summation index is trending higher.  The weekly charts for the gold shares look positive but they have looked good before too.  Gold itself has been moving sideways for 4 months.  We are in golds historic best months of August and September.  I don't expect much out of this week but we'll keep an eye out going forward.       

Monday, August 06, 2012

A slow start to the week for the most part as the Dow gained 21 points on very light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  We were up about 90 points but sold off in the last half hour.  The technicals are overbought on the stock indexes and a pullback is in order.  Not a lot of economic data out this week and I expect this week to be a summer doldrums affair.  I could be wrong.  GE was flat on the day after hitting a new high for the year.  Volume was light.  No trades for me here.  Gold was up $6 on the futures as the US dollar was a touch weaker.  The XAU gained 3 3/4.  This is the second time in the past week that the gold shares have out performed the metal itself.  That is bullish for the gold shares going forward if it keeps up.  ABX and GG had fractional gains while NEM was up 1 1/2.  Volume was light.  My October ABX calls are still in the red.  Mentally I'm a bit tired, not feeling 100%.  I expect a drift lower here for the stock indices and then perhaps some strength towards the end of the week.  9 days to go for the August option cycle.  Many players are on vacation.  I don't anticipate any trades for me in the August option cycle.  That would most likely be the prudent course of action.  There's always the possibility of a headline from Europe though. 

Friday, August 03, 2012

Back to the upside today as the Dow gained 217 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were about 5 to 1 positive.  The employment numbers were better than expected and today what Europe said yesterday was viewed as positive.  What?  Yesterday Europe was viewed as negative.  This is the kind of game we play.  That is why we stick to the technicals and they have rolled back up for the stock indexes.  It is a dicey affair at the moment.  We're basically moving in channel with a slight upward bias.  The volume today was light and we never trust light volume rallies.  But it is a Friday in the summer.  So the questions continue and the trading is never easy anyway.  Not a lot of data out next week so it could be slow.  However we are still at the ongoing risk of a headline.  GE was up 3/8 and the volume was light.  I've decided not to attempt a trade here for now.  2 weeks to go before option expiration.  Gold rallied a bit as the US dollar got crushed, which didn't make any sense considering the jobs number was better than expected.  The gold futures rose $18.  The XAU was up 2 1/2 but was higher before the last 15 minutes of the session when the gold shares abruptly sold off.  ABX and GG rose around 1/2, while NEM was up a buck.  Volume was nothing special.  My ABX calls remain in the red.  I still plan on holding them for a while.  Gold has been in a sideways channel as well since the middle of April.  Still waiting for a breakout one way or the other.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Looks like we should continue to drift higher here.  I may try the August OEX calls on weakness next week but I may be too late.  With all the data out this week when it was all said and done the Dow gained 20 points.  That is a lot of trouble for nothing.  Perhaps on the sidelines is the place to be until all the players return after Labor Day.  I'll check the charts over the weekend and go from there.  It's a Friday afternoon in the summer.  Time to take a break.

Thursday, August 02, 2012

The ECB followed the Fed with not much to say and the Dow moved lower.  The major average fell 92 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  We were down twice as much during the session.  I have expected higher equity prices and we have done nothing but move lower.  However the decline has not been as bad as it could be.  Considering the lack of Central Bank follow through to their previous statements, we should be down much further.  But that is simply my opinion.  The daily technicals have rolled over for the stock indexes and the summation index is now trending lower.  That could all change on tomorrows employment report or the averages will confirm the downside by moving lower.  Or the number could be a non-event since it will be a Friday in the summer.  We'll soon know the answer.  GE was off 1/4 on average volume.  GE had a pretty wide range for the day, I'm guessing due to the uncertainty going forward with the employment report.  No trades there for now.  Gold dropped again, off $16 on the futures.  The US dollar rose again today.  The XAU held up OK, considering the dollar and the overall slump in the indices.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses but NEM led the way down and that isn't bullish.  My October ABX calls are still in the red.  The gold shares have held up better than lately in the recent gold decline.  We'll see what that means going forward.  Mentally I'm feeling tired, did not sleep well.  All eyes will be on the employment numbers tomorrow.  I have no idea what they will be.  We will have to see how the market reacts and take it from there.  Even with the recent decline I'm still in the bullish camp for now.  We'll see what happens tomorrow.

Wednesday, August 01, 2012

The Fed has come and is gone once again.  Nothing new was said and that wasn't unexpected.  The markets sold off, came back and sold off once again.  The Dow fell 32 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  Now that's out of the way and we'll see what comes from the ECB.  Still more overbought than oversold on the stock index technicals.  The summation index is trending sideways.  I'm still a believer that we are in an uptrend but it's a slow moving affair.  GE was flat on the day and the volume was light.  No trades there for me at the moment.  If anything, I may try the August calls.  Gold fell today as the US dollar moved higher.  The precious metal futures were off $7 and a bit more in the aftermarket.  The XAU lost 1 3/4.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses and the volume was good.  The gold shares sold off hard early in the session and then made a comeback.  Not exactly sure of what to make of things here but at least it wasn't a total sell off.  My ABX October calls are still in the red.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The small stocks had a worse day than the big caps and that usually isn't a positive going forward.  The transports had a rough day as well and they often times lead the way.  Perhaps we are simply in a waiting game until the employment report on Friday.  Gold sold off today but it wasn't as bad as it could have been.  The gold share technicals are breaking down from overbought.  August and September are historically the best months for the price of gold.  We'll see.  All eyes and ears will be on the ECB tomorrow.  It should be some type of market mover.  

Tuesday, July 31, 2012

A waiting game today as the Dow fell 64 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The economic data was a little better than expected but it doesn't matter in this environment.  It's all about the Fed.  I doubt that they will announce any changes tomorrow but I could be wrong.  It's possible that we get no new news from the Fed and the ECB.  The stock indices probably won't like that but who knows?  There's always Fridays employment report to move things.  So we'll see.  GE was flat on the day and the volume was light.  Gold dropped almost $10 on the futures and the US dollar was a bit lower as well.  The XAU fell almost 3 points.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses today on light volume.  My ABX October calls remain mired in the red.  No news from the Fed and the ECB won't be bullish for gold.  The technicals for the gold shares here are mid-range.  A case could be made for either direction.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well.  We ended the month on a down note for the stock indices.  I still think that we are digesting the gains from late last week.  Not completely short term overbought on the stock indexes just yet.  The gold shares look like they could be rolling over here once again.  Tomorrows action will tell the story there.  I still plan on holding the ABX calls for a while though.  Beginning of August tomorrow and we'll see if we get some of the usual positive money flows.  We'll keep an eye on things overnight and take it from there.

Monday, July 30, 2012

Today we returned to the summer Monday role in the marketplace as the Dow fell 2 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  Simply digesting the recent gains today in my opinion.  It's a waiting game now on the Fed and the ECB.  Wednesday and Thursday should provide some news or lack thereof to move the stock indices.  End of the month tomorrow.  Plus the employment report on Friday.  Plenty of reasons to spike volatility this week.  My guess is that when it is all said and done, we'll be higher than when the week started.  GE was off 1/8 on average volume.  I might still try the August calls here but not completely sold on that idea.  Gold was up a couple bucks on the futures in lackluster trading.  The US dollar was a bit higher today.  The XAU rose 2 points.  ABX, GG and NEM were all up fractionally on light volume.  One day doesn't make a trend but the gold shares finally outpaced the price of gold for a change.  My October ABX calls are still in the red.  I'll be hanging on to them for a while.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Plenty of economic data in the days to come along with lots of news from the worlds Central Banks.  Boring it won't be.  I'd be a buyer of weakness for the stock indexes but my ideas haven't been panning out lately.  I think we'll be on hold until the Wednesday Fed announcement.  We'll see if anything comes out of Europe tonight as the headline risk is still upon us.

Friday, July 27, 2012

A powerful follow through to yesterdays action as the Dow closed above 13000 for the first time in 3 months.  The Dow gained 187 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 5 to 1 positive.  This should move the summation index back to the upside.  I was wrong once again thinking that the earlier this week break of the up trend line in the S&P 500 would lead to further weakness.  Of course I didn't know the European Central Bank would announce that it's ready to flood the markets with money but my idea was wrong anyway.  We've broken through the resistance for the S&P 500 on good volume and should move higher from here to attack the 1420 level.  We don't need to know why there is a rally, we just need to recognize that fact and try to profit from it.  GE was up 1/3 on heavy volume.  Breaking out to the upside here as well.  I'm considering the August 21 calls if they get cheaper.  I do not like to chase moves and the short term technicals are overbought now.  Gold gained a couple of bucks on the futures and a bit more in the aftermarket.  The US dollar was weaker yet again today.  I still don't think that gold has moved as much as it should with such extensive weakness in the US dollar this week.  The XAU was up around 1 3/4.  ABX fell 1/3, GG was up 1/8 and NEM dropped 1 1/2 on poor earnings.  Volume was heavy in ABX and NEM.  I sold my August ABX calls for almost a 100% loss.  Even with 3 weeks to go the calls were too far out of the money to ever show a profit.  It's better to put that trade behind me and move on.  I'll continue to hold the ABX October calls and they are in the red.  The major gold producers and the gold shares in general have not kept pace with the gains in the precious metal.  That usually isn't a bullish sign.  The October calls have about 3 months to go.  The weekly technicals for the gold shares are oversold but that doesn't mean that they can't remain there.  We'll see what happens.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The stock indices are in rally mode.  GDP came in as expected.  Weakness can be bought in my opinion.  The summer has been anything but quiet once again.  It's possible that the XAU and some of the gold shares are putting in a double bottom here on the weekly charts.  Time will tell on that.  I just booked another big losing trade and there is nothing good to be said about that.  The lost money and mental capital has to be forgotten about in a hurry because the markets won't wait.  The markets don't care.  I'll have to regroup over the weekend and be ready for Monday morning.  We've got plenty of economic data out next week and the Fed announcement on Wednesday.  But for now it's a Friday summer afternoon and time for a rest.  

Thursday, July 26, 2012

The market exploded to the upside on news out of Europe.  The Dow gained 211 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 positive.  The headline risk was positive this time around.  The European Central Bank basically said it would print as much money as it takes to save the euro.  The US dollar tanked and that propelled the stock indices higher.  Perhaps this time we'll make it through the resistance at around 1370 on the S&P 500.  We'll have to see what happens after tomorrows GDP report.  GE was up 1/2 on good volume.  It looks like GE wants to continue higher here.  That will be a plus for the overall market if it happens.  Gold was higher by $7 on the futures which really wasn't much considering that the US dollar got pummeled today.  The gold shares lagged as well with some exceptions.  The XAU gained 2 7/8.  ABX fell about a buck, GG rose 2 and NEM gained 1/4.  The ABX earnings and guidance completely disappointed the market.  ABX was down 2 3/4 at one point.  It made a strong comeback but not enough to save any of my calls.  I'll probably dump the August calls tomorrow for a substantial loss.  It's possible that I can break even on the October calls if we get some type of rally in the gold shares in the next month or so.  GG is clearly the leader in relative strength here.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The stock indexes had a nice day but was it simply a one day wonder?  Perhaps this was simply a snap back rally but it didn't feel like it.  Tomorrow will tell a lot even if it is a summer Friday.  If the market continues to rally on a weak GDP number, then we should continue to move higher in the days to come.  If we drop back tomorrow the picture will be less clear.  Gold should have moved a lot more today considering the weakness in the US dollar.  Gold itself is short term overbought now as well.  ABX dropped to a new low today and there is no hope for my August calls now.  It is times like these that as a trader you just have to persevere.  My trading has been terrible all year.  It seems that nothing I'm doing is working out.  But you have to keep going.  There are still plenty of trading opportunities out there.  We'll see what transpires tomorrow.    

Wednesday, July 25, 2012

We broke the losing streak for the Dow today with a gain of 58 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  It was an up and down type of day in the stock indices.  A mixed market as both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ were lower on the session.  Short term oversold now for the market and a bounce is to be expected.  With the summation index heading lower, I would expect any rally attempt to be short lived.  I could be wrong.  GE was flat on the day and volume was lighter.  GE has had pretty good relative strength lately.  That is a plus for the bullish case going forward if GE is a proxy for the overall market here.  Gold had a strong day on the weaker US dollar.  The yellow metal rose $30 on the futures.  The XAU was up only 4 points as the gold shares continue to disappoint.  ABX rose 2/3, GG up 1 1/8 and NEM gained 1 1/2.  Volume was slightly above average, which is a positive.  NEM was the leader and that is usually a positive as well.  My October ABX calls are slightly in the black but the ABX August calls I own are losers and will remain so barring a miracle.  Earnings are out tomorrow for ABX and that should be a mover one way or the other for this stock.  We'll see what happens.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The S&P 500 is trying to hold on at the 50 day moving average on the daily chart.  I'm guessing that the GDP report out on Friday could be a market mover but it will be summer Friday.  So the all the usual participants may not be around.  Gold had a strong day for a change.  My thinking here is that if the GDP report is weak on Friday then gold will continue to rally on expected easing down the road from the Fed.  That's a guess as usual.  We didn't hear anything out of Europe today but that could change at any minute.  Headline risk remains.  We'll see how ABX reacts to the earnings report and take it from there.

Tuesday, July 24, 2012

The Dow once again made a last hour comeback but it wasn't enough to prevent the 3rd triple digit down day in a row.  The Dow fell 104 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative.  We were off 200 at one point intraday.  The summation index is now moving to the downside.  We've broken the up trend line in the S&P 500 that has been in effect since the beginning of June.  We could snap back to that line but the trend has changed.  Not oversold yet on the daily technicals for the stock indices but we are working or way down there.  GE was off 1/8 on average volume and has held up rather well here.  Perhaps what we will get for the overall market is more sideways action instead of a huge decline.  That's a guess as usual.  No trades in GE for me at the moment.  Gold bounced around today but finished the day little changed on the futures.  The US dollar was stronger today.  The XAU was down 3/8.  ABX fell 1/2 on good volume, while GG and NEM were little changed on light volume.  My ABX calls for August and October are losers as ABX cannot find any support whatsoever.  At this rate the earnings out on Thursday won't make a difference.  The gold shares are still under performers with relation to the price of gold.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired again, did not sleep well.  The stock indexes have been roiled by Europe once again.  The 50 day moving averages are getting close to breaking down through the 200 day moving averages on a daily basis.  That is not a positive sign.  Puts are probably the way to go or simply head to the sidelines.  The relationship between the price of gold and the gold shares has hit an extreme in my opinion.  One of two things will happen.  Either the price of gold will have to fall quite a bit or the gold shares will have to rally.  We'll see what happens.  I'm holding losing trades for ABX and the earnings are due out before the bell on Thursday.  The August calls I have are probably dead.  We'll keep an eye on Europe overnight and take it from there.

Monday, July 23, 2012

Not a typical summer Monday as the Dow was rocked early by the problems in Europe once again.  We were down over 200 but made a comeback to finish the day with a loss of 101 points.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative and the volume was average.  It certainly could have been a lot worse and the fact that we came back leads me to believe that we are not on the verge of some major market meltdown.  But anything can happen I suppose.  Europe was off the radar for a while, now it's back.  It will go away again and then come back.  This situation is like a broken record and it will not be solved anytime soon.  It makes the trading tougher than it already is.  GE was up 1/4 and the volume was good.  This is another reason why the decline probably doesn't have legs in my opinion.  GE is at times a proxy for the overall market.  We'll see how this plays out.  No trades here for me now.  Gold was off $5 on the futures but was lower early on as well.  The US dollar had some strength today on the flight to safety.  The XAU could not follow once again as it lost 4 points.  ABX off a buck, GG fell 3/4 and NEM lost 2/3.  Volume was light.  I canceled the open order that I had for the October ABX calls before the market opened.  I then replaced that order with a lower price when ABX opened lower.  That order was filled.  I still hold the August ABX calls as well that I should be getting rid of after the earnings report out on Thursday.  That trade will be a loser.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep enough.  So now all eyes will be back on Europe and whatever news comes out of there.  The headline risk returns to the marketplace.  Once again, that can cause things to go either way.  I do not have any OEX trades in mind for now.  I'm trying the ABX calls again and they haven't worked for me yet this year.  Plenty of time on this trade as it goes out for 3 months.  We'll see what happens.  There's a potential positive RSI divergence on the daily chart and the Gold/XAU ratio is off the charts to the buy side.  That ratio hasn't worked well as of late but that won't be the case forever.  We'll watch things overseas tonight and go from there.

Friday, July 20, 2012

A downside bias to expiration day as the Dow fell 120 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  Some negative noise from Spain today.  We closed the week below the important 1370 level on the S&P 500.  Perhaps we'll make another run at a breakout next week.  GE was all over the map today on the earnings report.  It opened lower, was up 1/2 and then sold off to be little changed.  Volume was heavy.  I'm not exactly sure which way it goes from here.  Gold was up a couple bucks on the futures today despite a stronger US dollar.  The XAU fell 3/8.  ABX, GG and NEM were mixed with fractional moves on light volume.  I'm leaving the October ABX call order open and I'm waiting to sell the August ABX calls at a loss.  Earnings for ABX are due on Thursday.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The stock indices tried to break out this week and so far have failed.  Some had gaps to the downside and that isn't a positive going forward.  However none of the up trend lines in place since June have been violated.  Gold had a pretty good performance today considering the strength in the US dollar.  Perhaps the flight to safety trade is going to make a comeback.  I'd like to own the October ABX calls before the earnings are announced.  We'll see.  I've already lost a lot of money so far this year trading the gold shares from the long side.  We are approaching the historical positive months of August and September for gold.  I'll have to ponder this trade over the weekend.  For now it's a Friday afternoon in the summer and time for a break.

Thursday, July 19, 2012

An expiration drift higher today.  The Dow gained 34 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The economic data out today was weaker than expected.  No matter, there are no sellers at the moment.  We've gotten above the key 1370 area in the S&P 500.  It certainly hasn't been a robust move higher yet though.  Interesting that we haven't heard anything about Europe lately as if that problem is suddenly solved.  The market goes where it wants.  GE was off fractionally on light volume.  We'll see if tomorrows earnings report can get this issue moving.  Gold was up $10 today as the US dollar was just a bit weaker.  The CRB index has moved higher lately.  The XAU was up 1 3/4.  ABX and NEM rose 1/2, while GG gained 3/4.  Volume was light.  I did place an overnight order for the October ABX calls but it wasn't filled.  I'm leaving the order open.  My August ABX calls remain solid losers.  I'll wait for the earnings next week and probably take the loss there.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The stock index action of late seems a bit slow and lethargic.  I guess it's perhaps finally a summer of doldrums.  Not the best trading environment.  We've got option expiration tomorrow and then I don't see any real catalysts for the market until the 2nd quarter GDP report.  So I'll sit and wait.  It's all you can do really.

Wednesday, July 18, 2012

Continuing higher as the Dow gained 103 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  Another day like today and we will break through the resistance on the S&P 500.  Todays economic data was better than expected.  It looks like the gains in the indices will continue.  GE was up 1/8 on light volume.  Earnings Friday.  Gold was down $18 on the futures as the US dollar was flat on the day.  The XAU fell 1 3/4.  ABX and NEM were both off around 1/3, while GG fell 1 1/8.  Volume was light.  My ABX August calls are just about dead.  I'm considering moving out to the October calls here.  I may place an overnight order for them.  Mentally I'm feeling tired.  Todays post is abbreviated due to other commitments that I had today.  Back at full strength tomorrow.

Tuesday, July 17, 2012

Moving higher per expiration week as the Dow gained 78 points on what passes for average volume these days.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The market opened higher, moved lower when Bernanke started talking and then resumed its climb back to the upside.  The economic data today was about in line with expectations.  Summation index still moving to the upside.  Resistance on the S&P 500 comes in at 1370.  A decisive break above that level would send the stock indexes much higher in my opinion.  I'm not sure if that will be the case.  The down trend line at 1370 has been in effect since the beginning of April.  GE was up 1/8 on average volume.  Still oversold on the daily technicals there.  We'll look to the earnings on Friday as a catalyst one way or the other.  Gold was moving around to the downside today.  The precious metal lost a few bucks in the regular session and then fell more in the aftermarket.  The US dollar was lower today as well.  The XAU was off 1 1/2.  ABX, GG and NEM were all off fractionally on light volume.  I'm still holding the ABX August calls and will be until the earnings out next week.  They continue solidly in the red.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well.  Looking to see if we can break the longer term resistance on the stock indices and that will be the key for the near term.  The S&P 500 will easily go to 1400 if we can break through 1370 in my analysis.  Hasn't happened yet.  Gold remains range bound as it has been for weeks on end.  Not sure what will get the metal moving.  More Bernanke tomorrow along with the days economic data. 

Monday, July 16, 2012

Just another mundane Monday in the summer as the Dow fell about 50 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  No upside follow through to Fridays fireworks.  I still think we'll head higher from here with expiration week as the back drop.  We've got a couple days of Bernanke blabbering to Congress to get through.  The daily stock index technicals are mid-range so I suppose you could make a case for either direction from here.  Plenty of earnings to contend with along with a modest amount of economic data.  GE was off 1/8 on light volume.  Still holding the 50 day moving average on the daily charts.  Earnings on Friday.  I doubt I'll be attempting a trade for GE this week.  Gold was little changed on the day as the US dollar was lower.  The XAU fell 5/8.  ABX was flat while GG and NEM had fractional losses.  Volume was light.  My ABX August calls continue to be losers.  I'm resigned to waiting on the earnings report next week.  Might be too late by then.  This trade is in the cut the loss stage at this point.  The technicals are oversold though so we'll see what happens.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The stock indices continue to remain above their rising trend lines on a daily basis that began in the beginning of June.  As long as that holds the trend is higher in my opinion.  Gold has been moving sideways and the gold shares have lagged.  That usually isn't a bullish scenario going forward.  Yet I still own the August ABX calls at a loss.  Less than 5 weeks to go on this trade now.  Perhaps the earnings will help me cut the loss.  Not a good trading strategy there.  We'll wait to see what Bernanke has to say tomorrow.

Friday, July 13, 2012

We finally got the rally I was expecting as the Dow gained 203 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 5 to 1 positive.  We never got any weakness early as it was off to the races from the start.  I didn't get any OEX calls and that is another missed opportunity.  I expected some up side like this over 2 to 3 sessions, not all in one day.  The excuse is that the bank earnings were better than expected.  Didn't matter.  The stock indexes were overdue for some technical upside.  We'll probably continue higher for the short term.  GE was up 1/3 and the volume was light.  We're bouncing off of the 50 day moving average here.  Earnings in a week.  The July 20 calls here perhaps?  Probably not.  Gold rallied on a weaker US dollar as the precious metal futures rose $26.  The XAU did not follow as it only gained 2 1/3.  The under performance of the gold shares here is glaring and does not bode well for future upside.  ABX up 1/4, GG gained 7/8 and NEM added 3/4.  Volume was light.  My ABX calls are losers and ABX is under performing here as well.  The earnings are out in a week and a half so I suppose I will wait for that event.  Mentally I'm feeling discouraged of course for being stuck in a losing trade while winning ideas go by the wayside.  It's part of the game.  As always the mental capital wasted in losing efforts is the most important component.  My trading this year has not been good.  It has been exceptionally poor.  I'll need to rectify this going forward.  The stock indices have room to the upside here.  Expiration week should help move things forward along with the oversold condition technically.  The easy profits have been made though in my opinion.  Gold continues to move in a sideways channel with the gold shares simply continuing lower.  There is nothing on the horizon to change this pattern.  I will be looking out to the October ABX calls on more downside.  I'll check the charts over the weekend and go from there.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break. 

Thursday, July 12, 2012

The malaise continues as the Dow fell 31 points on what passes now for average volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  I didn't get any OEX calls today but I am still interested in that trade near term.  The timing has got to be good for this idea to work.  I will consider buying them tomorrow and dumping them on Monday or Tuesday.  The short term technicals are oversold.  No real news today of any consequence and we were off over 100 points early on.  I'm still expecting at least a short covering rally soon.  GE was down 1/4 on average volume.  We've reached the 50 day moving average on the daily charts.  Oversold short term here as well.  Earnings out in a week.  No trades for me here.  Gold was lower again today on the stronger US dollar.  The gold futures closed down $10, were down over $20 at one point of the session and made a comeback in the after hours market.  The XAU fell 2/3 but was much lower than that intraday.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses after all being lower by over a buck early.  ABX and NEM have potential doji morning stars on their daily candlestick charts.  My ABX August calls are firmly in the red.  That trade is now in a cut the loss, take the loss mode.  My next attempt here will probably be the October calls.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  If we get some weakness in the morning for the stock indexes I'll probably try the July OEX calls.  I've been looking at this trade for a couple of days and the longer there isn't any upside the more likely it is for some to occur.  In theory anyway.  The market could just keep heading down as well.  But I don't think that is going to happen.  The ABX trade is yet another loser, it's just a matter of how much.  I still might wait until the earnings report though.  Not much else for a Thursday afternoon in the summer.  We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.     

Wednesday, July 11, 2012

5 days in a row to the downside as the Dow fell 48 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive though.  The market didn't like the Fed minutes but did stage a last hour comeback to cut the loss more than in half.  I'm pretty sure that the OEX July calls are the way to go here for a short term trade.  The daily technicals on the stock indices are at the same level where they bounced before.  The only drawback here is the apathy from the players.  There really isn't any interest from the buy side but we could at least see a short covering rally.  That's a guess as usual.  If we get some weakness again tomorrow, I might try those OEX calls.  GE was up a touch today on light volume.  The short term technicals are oversold here as well as we approach the 50 day moving average.  No trades for me here though.  Gold took a slight hit on the Fed and the slightly higher US dollar.  The precious metal futures were off around $5.  The XAU continues to under perform, losing 2 2/3.  ABX dropped 2/3, GG fell 3 1/2 and NEM shed 3/8.  Volume was above average for the gold shares and extremely heavy in GG.  GG announced a shortfall in production for the year and got clobbered.  My ABX calls remain in the red and could be on the way to the graveyard of failed trades.  There is a chance that we are putting in a double bottom for ABX on both the daily and weekly charts but it will depend on where we close for the week.  That will be the only chance for this ABX August call trade to be profitable.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well.  I'd like to perhaps try the OEX July calls here but I am still stuck in the ABX trade.  I don't know if I'd like to put on more risk.  I'll see what happens tomorrow morning and go from there.  There really isn't a catalyst out there for higher prices that I see but the market will go where it wants to.  We've had plenty of bad news lately and the stock indexes have held up rather well.  Plus we have expiration week coming up which usually has a positive bias.  So we'll see.  I'll keep an eye on things overnight and go from there.   

Tuesday, July 10, 2012

A downer Tuesday as the Dow fell 83 points on better than lately volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  We made a last half hour comeback in the indices or it would have been worse.  No apparent reason for the decline but there are no buyers and there is no interest.  I think the market is falling on its own weight.  If I am to attempt the OEX July call trade the time is now.  We are back to the up trend line at the 615 area.  I'm sure if I wasn't involved in the current ABX trade that I would try the OEX.  GE fell 3/8 and the volume was good.  I suppose the July GE calls are out of the question now.  It appears that we had a false breakout on the weekly GE chart.  We have now fallen back below the previous resistance.  If this continues for GE that would not bode well for the overall market.  Gold fell today as well, the futures were off about $10 and another $10 in the aftermarket.  The US dollar was higher.  The XAU fell 5 1/8.  ABX off a buck, GG down 7/8 and NEM lost 1 1/3.  Volume was weak here again.  There is no buying interest.  My ABX August calls are now solidly in the red.  I'll need to see some kind of upside before the end of the week here or this will be yet another losing trade.  The short term technicals are oversold for the gold shares.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I'll have to think long and hard about getting the OEX July calls tonight.  Perhaps the Fed minutes will be an upside catalyst for the stock indexes tomorrow.  That's a guess as usual.  The short term technicals for the stock indices are mid-range.  Todays bearish action appeared out of nowhere really.  I guess maybe there won't be any summer doldrums again this year either.  The dollar is breaking out to new highs for the year and that won't be bullish for gold.  We are short term overbought in the US dollar though.  We'll keep an eye on things tonight and see what happens tomorrow.

Monday, July 09, 2012

A lackluster start to the trading week as the Dow fell 36 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  Monday back from a long holiday week and the summer doldrums are here.  For a day at least.  No news of any importance and Europe was quiet today.  We are trying to bounce off of the 50 day moving average in the Dow.  I may try the OEX calls later in the week.  GE didn't do much today and the volume was light.  No trades there for now and the earnings are due on the last trading day of the July option cycle.  The gold futures were up $10 as the US dollar fell today.  The XAU dropped a point and change though as the gold shares are lagging the price of the metal itself.  That isn't a bullish sign for those issues.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on light volume.  My August ABX calls are in the red now.  However I still plan on holding them for now.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  There is trend line support for the OEX at the 615 level.  If we work our way back to that, I will probably try the July 620 calls.  That is the next idea on my radar screen.  I'd like to hang on the the August ABX calls until the earnings come out later this month.  But the markets will go where they want to.  I don't expect much out of this week.  Not much economic data due.  The Fed minutes will be out on Wednesday.  Earnings reports begin tonight.  We'll see if there are any surprises. 

Friday, July 06, 2012

The employment report came and went as the Dow fell 124 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  The jobs number was a bit weaker than expected.  The result could have been worse but we came back in the last hour and a half.  Hard to say what will happen on Monday as the volume has been light all week.  I'm still going to be a believer in higher prices before the July option expiration.  Summation index still to the upside and the market has the feel of wanting to go higher.  GE fell 1/3 and the volume was good.  Not sure about the calls here as we broke through the longer term resistance only to fall right back below it.  I thought that the breakout was valid bit I guess not.  I'll check the charts again over the weekend.  Gold had a poor showing today as the US dollar rose despite the weak jobs report.  The precious metal fell $30 on the futures on the stronger dollar.  The XAU dropped 4 1/2.  ABX off 1 1/4, GG dropped a buck and NEM lost 1 1/8.  Volume was light.  My August ABX calls are now barely in the black.  Could be now that this trade is not going to work out.  I'll have to ponder this over the weekend.  The short term technicals have rolled over and the weeklies have too.  Mentally I'm feeling tired, did not sleep well.  I'm not exactly sure what will happen next to the stock indexes but the trend is still up for now.  I may be looking at a July OEX call trade.  Gold looks a lot worse than it did at the close of last week.  I will have to do the work over the weekend and try and come up with a game plan for the ABX trade next week.  I'm inclined to hold onto it for now.  Perhaps we'll get all the summer players back next week.  Right now, it's time for a break.

Thursday, July 05, 2012

A bit of weakness before the jobs report as the Dow fell 47 points on very light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  In a holding pattern for the stock indices until tomorrow.  Still short term overbought here.  The summation index continues higher.  I don't think that the summer rally has ended, even if we do move lower tomorrow.  The markets appear to be in holiday mode.  GE was off 1/8 on that very light volume.  I might still try the July calls before the earnings announcement but not completely sold on that idea.  Gold fell today as the US dollar posted a strong session.  The gold futures were off over $10, which wasn't too bad considering the strength in the dollar.  The XAU dropped 1 2/3.  ABX down 5/8, GG lost 3/8 and NEM fell 2/3.  Volume was average for ABX, light otherwise.  My ABX August calls lost some ground but are still showing a profit.  The technicals for ABX are mid-range on a daily basis.  My plan here is to hold onto the calls for a while, probably into the earnings report at the end of the month.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The employment report and the market reaction to it will be the key for the near term.  Perhaps the strength in the US dollar today was a clue that the numbers won't be so bad tomorrow.  That's a guess as usual.  There also are not as many players as usual due to the mid-week holiday.  That can skew things as well.  We'll see what happens in the morning and go from there.

Tuesday, July 03, 2012

Continuing higher and that is the plan as the Dow gained 72 points on extremely holiday light volume.  The US markets closed early today.  The advance/declines were almost 4 to 1 positive.  An overseas bank scandal did nothing to stop the rise in the stock indices today.  A market that shrugs off bad news is one that is going higher.  The S&P 500 is at its resistance line on the daily charts.  The smaller stocks have already broken through their resistance and the S&P 500 should follow.  GE was off a touch on extremely light volume.  Not exactly sure why GE isn't joining in the party here.  Still overbought on the daily technicals here but that doesn't mean that we can't go higher.  I may look at the July calls once again.  Gold had a good day, up over $20 on the futures.  The US dollar was just a bit weaker.  The XAU rose 5 7/8.  ABX and NEM climbed 1 1/4, while GG was up 1 7/8.  Volume was very light.  My ABX August calls are in the black.  The daily technicals are mid-range, so there is still room to the upside in my opinion.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well.  The stock indexes are in full summer rally mode.  We'll see how far we can go.  There's always the risk of some headline out of Europe but as we've seen recently that can go either way.  Friday is the next event in my mind but the market may ignore that as well.  Gold has found a bid here and I certainly don't know why.  We were short term oversold though.  We'll watch events overseas if there are any, take tomorrow off and be back on Thursday.  

Monday, July 02, 2012

Pretty much just a drift today as the Dow fell 8 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The overall market was much stronger than the Dow.  The summation index continues higher.  The economic news today for the US was soft but the market wants to go higher here.  Summer rally mode continues.  We should move higher into the employment report on Friday.  It's a vacation week with the July 4th holiday right in the middle.  I would not expect a lot of volatility or volume.  GE fell 1/3 on average volume.  Still overbought here on the daily technicals.  We did have a vaid breakout on Friday though.  I'm not sure if I'm going to try the July calls here.  Gold was off around $5 on the futures as the US dollar bounced today.  The XAU was up 1/8.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional moves to the downside on very light volume.  My ABX calls are still in the black.  At his point I plan on holding the calls until the earnings report at the end of this month.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The stock indices are in a waiting game until Fridays employment report.  Throw in a holiday in the middle of the week and very light volume.  So I really don't expect much in the way of market moves for now.  I do think that we'll drift higher for the time being.  Gold should be quiet as well as the market players are on holiday.  I'll simply watch and wait for the numbers on Friday.

Friday, June 29, 2012

We got another headline event today but this time it was to the upside.  The Dow soared 277 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 6 to 1 positive.  Europes problems are solved for now according to todays headlines.  The summit meeting has produced an agreement that the markets like.  It doesn't matter today if it actually works or not.  The summer rally lives on.  The stock indices are breaking through short term resistance lines and higher prices are still on the horizon.  You can't argue with price and volume.  Purchasing calls is the way to go here.  GE was up 2/3 on heavy volume and we have broken through the longer term resistance here going back a year and a half.  The short term technicals are overbought and have been for weeks.  Any pullback here can be bought.  The action in GE is bullish for the overall market also.  Gold soared today as well when the US dollar got clobbered on the European headlines.  The futures gained over $50.  The XAU only rose 5 points though as the gold shares have once again underperformed the metal lately.  That usually isn't bullish going forward for the gold shares.  ABX, GG and NEM were all higher by at least 1 1/3.  The volume was nothing special.  The ABX calls I have are in the black.  I also noticed some extremely high volume in some of the ABX call options.  Not exactly sure what that means.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Some of my ideas have panned out lately but I haven't cashed in on them.  That is really all that matters in this game.  However I did think that things would slow down here and they certainly haven't done that.  The stock indexes are going to go higher here, my guess is at least for the next 3 weeks before the July option expiration.  Declines can be bought.  The daily gold share charts look like there is plenty of room to move to the upside as the technicals are closer to the oversold side.  But anything can and will happen.  I'm not sure how long I will hold on the the ABX call trade.  I will have to check the charts over the weekend.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

Thursday, June 28, 2012

We got the Supreme courts ruling on healthcare today and the market initially sold off.  However the Dow made a huge comeback in the final hour to finish the day with just a loss of 25 points.  We were down 175 during the session.  Volume was average and the advance/declines were positive.  This now feels like a market that wants to go higher.  The summation index is heading to the upside.  The short term technicals for the stock indices are now oversold.  I am expecting the summer rally to kick back into gear here with the short holiday week coming up.  I could be wrong.  There's always a chance for some bad news from Europe.  GE managed a slight gain today and the volume continues to be good.  We are once again on the cusp of breaking the resistance at 20.25.  Calls are recommended if we get through that level but they probably should already have been purchased.  If 20.25 is breached to the upside on good volume it will also bode well for the stock indices.  Who knows?  Maybe I'll still try some July calls there.  Gold had a rough day as the US dollar was stronger.  The precious metal fell $28 on the futures.  The XAU dropped 3 points.  ABX down 1/3, GG lost 1 1/3 and NEM off a buck.  Volume was about average.  I dumped the ABX August calls that I had for a 60% loss.  I already didn't like the timing on the entry and decided to simply get out.  Plenty of time left but I did not want to stay.  I do still believe in that idea so I repurchased the ABX August calls at a lower strike price.  They are slightly in the black.  I could have held on to the first purchase and tried to cut the loss but then I would have had more money tied up in this idea than I wanted.  There would have been too much risk and the trade is risky enough as it is.  Mentally I'm feeling tired, did not sleep well.  The stock indexes made a good comeback today and we'll see if they can follow through tomorrow.  I suspect that they will.  Volume should be slow in the markets for the next week due to the July 4th holiday next Wednesday.  I took another trading loss today and I am almost back to breakeven for the first half of the year.  My trading has been horrible so far in 2012 to say the least.  I will have to do better in the second half of the year.  I don't expect any headlines out from Europe overnight but you never know.  We'll close out June tomorrow.

Wednesday, June 27, 2012

It's a 2 day rally now as the Dow gained 92 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive.  The market breadth implies higher prices are coming.  The problem here is the volume is light and I don't trust light volume rallies.  We now have lows above lows and also highs below highs in the S&P 500.  So the market is still trying to figure out which way to go.  I'm back to leaning towards the bullish cause.  GE is one of the reasons why as it gained 1/3 on average volume.  On the daily chart, GE broke its downtrend line since March, snapped back to that line last week and has now resumed its uptrend.  It appears that the resistance at 20.25 will soon be taken out.  The July calls were the correct trade.  But that could all change on the next headline out of Europe.  Gold was up a couple of bucks today on the futures.  The US dollar was a bit higher as well.  The XAU was off 1/8.  ABX, GG and NEM had fractional moves one way or the other on light volume.  My August ABX calls are in the red and I do not like the way this trade has started out.  The technicals for ABX are oversold though so we should at least see some type of bounce here soon.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Waiting on the European summit and some economic data out tomorrow.  End of the month, quarter and first half of the year on Friday.  The summation index continues higher.  I'm already not feeling too good about this ABX August call trade.  The entry timing was off.  There has been nothing but bad news for ABX lately.  Perhaps I'll just simply exit the trade before the weekend.  Next week should be slow with the July 4th holiday on Wednesday.  Perhaps I should have simply stayed on the sidelines a bit longer.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Tuesday, June 26, 2012

We bounced around today as the Dow finished with a gain of 32 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index continues higher but that appears to be a bit misleading considering we've just had a couple of triple digit down days.  I think the market is trying to make up its mind here on which direction to take.  No headline event today.  Getting short term oversold on the stock indices.  GE had a nice move to the upside, gaining 1/3 on good volume.  Perhaps this stock will be the leader for the overall market.  The relative strength for GE lately has been pretty good.  Maybe I should have stuck with the original plan for the GE July calls.  We still need to take out the overhead resistance at around 20.25.  Gold fell back down today as the futures were off about $15.  The US dollar was a touch weaker today.  The XAU fell 2.  ABX dropped 1 1/3, GG lost 1/2 and NEM shed 7/8.  Volume was light to average.  My open order for the ABX August calls was filled in the morning.  It's already in the red.  I could have gotten a better fill if I had waited a while longer but hindsight always has a better fill it seems.  Plenty of time for this trade but I would like to see some upside from here.  Oversold on the gold shares now.  One thing that I don't think is in my favor is the lack of relative strength lately in ABX.  It has been a laggard.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I'm in the next trade now and I thought I might take a break from the game but today looked like an opportunity for me.  We'll see what happens.  The stock indexes have started to move lower after the nice run up ealier this month.  Anything could happen really due to the uncertainty in Europe.  Perhaps we'll get more clarity on the direction of things after this weeks European summit.  Or not.  That in itself shows the type of problems that we face in this kind of trading environment.  We'll watch what happens overseas tonight and go from there.   

Monday, June 25, 2012

We started off the last week of June with a triple digit loss as the Dow fell 138 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative.  I suppose I can't call it a summer rally anymore when we've lost roughly 350 points in the last 3 days.  I expected the stock indices to hold up here and clearly they haven't.  More rumblings out of Europe today as there is yet another important meeting at the end of this week.  Elections, meetings and summits occur yet nothing is really being done to help solve the problems over there.  That is the problem in itself.  Nothing short of default can fix things in the credit markets there really.  Perhaps the markets are finally figuring that out and factoring it in.  I don't know.  GE dropped about 1/3 on light volume.  I'm not considering the July calls here anymore.  I'm starting to get the feeling that the market is in trouble.  Gold was up $20 on the futures today as the US dollar showed strength as well.  The flight to safety trade came back on today.  The XAU was only up 1 1/4 though.  ABX up 1/3, GG gained a buck and NEM rose 7/8.  Volume was OK.  I looked at the gold share charts over the weekend and have determined that this will be my next trade.  I probably should have purchased something today.  I did place an open order for some August ABX calls and I am leaving it in overnight.  Mentally I'm doing OK.  As I have already mentioned more than once, we are at the mercy of the latest headline from wherever.  Be it from China, Europe or Washington.  For some reason this is the enviornment at the moment more so than usual.  Technically the stock indexes are mid-range the indicators and moving down.  The reported economic data is taking a back seat right now.  We've got the end of the month coming up.  The hoped for summer doldrums in the market are not happening once again.  I suppose I could always just wait things out on the sidelines.  However the technicals on the gold shares have moved back down to oversold on a short term basis..  The ongoing uncertainty should be a positive for gold.  I'm probably going to take another shot there.  We'll see what happens.

Friday, June 22, 2012

We didn't see any follow through to the downside today as the Dow gained 67 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index continues higher.  I'd have to say that whoever wanted to sell did so yesterday.  If this was the start of a bigger decline, I think we would have seen more liquidation today.  I could be wrong.  I'm not exactly sure what to expect next week but I'm still a believer that declines can be bought.  We may chop around here for a while but I think that the summer rally is still alive.  GE was up 1/4 on average volume.  Perhaps I should have bought the July calls yesterday.  We still need to break the resistance at around 20.25 on good volume for the all clear sign.  I'll look this over again during the weekend.  Gold didn't do much in the futures market but rose around $5 in the aftermarket.  The US dollar was quiet today as well.  The XAU dropped 3/4.  ABX, GG and NEM moved fractionally one way or the other on light volume.  We're not completely oversold technically on the gold shares just yet but I'm considering the August and October calls.  This is another area that I'll have to study over the weekend.  Mentally I'm doing OK.  So we had the huge drop in the stock indices yesterday and today not much of anything.  I don't exactly know what to make of it.  Gold got clobbered yesterday as well and no follow through downside today either.  We're still at the mercy of the next headline coming out of Europe.  Or perhaps when the Supreme court rules on health care we'll get some more volatility.  Plenty of economic data out next week as well.  There's still 4 weeks to go in the July option cycle.  The first week of July could be slow due to the holiday in the middle of the week.  There are many things to consider before taking on the next trade.  But for now it's a sunny summer Friday afternoon and time for a break. 

Thursday, June 21, 2012

Is the summer rally over already?  The Dow got clobbered today, losing 250 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were almost 5 to 1 negative.  The economic data was weak today but it has been for a while.  It was simply a mass sell off of all assets.  I don't know the reasons why.  Oil broke the $80 level today which implies demand is even weaker than previously thought.  Is there a worldwide economic contraction about to take place?  Is Europe about to implode?  Many questions come to the surface after a day like today.  Especially since it came out of nowhere.  Time will tell if it was a one day wonder or not.  GE fell over 1/2 on good volume.  We were on the cusp of breaking out from the resistance that has been in place since early 2011.  We've now pulled back from there.  I don't know what the next move is from here after todays debacle.  I am no longer looking at the July calls here.  Gold got hammered as the US dollar returned as a safe haven today.  The precious metal fell $50 on the futures.  The XAU dropped 9 1/8.  ABX off by 2, GG lost 1 2/3 and NEM shed 2 1/2.  Volume was light.  I mentioned possibly getting some GDX puts 2 days ago but the option premiums didn't get to where I wanted.  That was finally an idea that would have been the right move.  However I'm still looking out 2 or 3 months for the gold share calls and todays drop in price will make those options look more attractive price wise.  However I'm not exactly sure what is going on here with the markets so I'll be on the sidelines for now.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep enough.  Todays action was really a shot out of the blue.  I don't think anybody saw a day like this coming out of nowhere.  It will be important to see if there is any follow through tomorrow.  Even with todays action the summation index will still be trending higher.  Gold got clocked and we will have to see if it can find support at its recent lows.  It will also be interesting to see what happens overseas tonight and tomorrow.  I'll need to check the charts tonight and try to figure out what is going on.  However a more in depth study of things will need to occur over the weekend.