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Thursday, November 05, 2026

Hello volatility. Or we could say that today was simply a mini-crash. The Dow fell 1833 points on very heavy volume. The advance/declines were around 6 to 1 negative. The summation index is still moving higher but not as strong as yesterday. The summation index has been moving higher and the market has been moving lower. This is not the normal relationship. Tha NASDAQ led the way lower and that has been a problem for a while. It lost 5 1/2% The S&P 500 chimed in with a drop of around 4 1/2%. Over three hundred points down for the day on the S&P. The short term indicators here have jumped back down and are oversold already. The longer term up trend line that began in April 2025 has been broken. Might get some support at the 200 day moving average at 7325 but we are practically there already. Better support lies at the 7000 level. If that doesn't hold it will be look out below. Still over two weeks left in the November option cycle. However with the technical indicators not in sync with the current price movement, I'll be on the sidelines for now with regards to the SPY options. Gold was up twenty bucks as it finally got a little of the flight to safety money. The US dollar finished flat and interest rates were lower. The XAU added 2 points and GDX rose 1 1/8. Volume was pretty good as the gold shares did not follow the market lower for a change. No doubt there were margin calls that were filled by gold but the fact that it held up today is a plus for the bulls. The short term indicators for GDX are still trending higher and it is right on the cusp of its short term down trend line at 86. Perhaps a weaker jobs report tomorrow can push it through that line. Or not. The daily candlestick chart for GDX appears to want to go higher though. My GDX November calls have come back from the dead and are now showing a slight profit. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX had a complete reversal from yesterday and closed at 28. The short term indicators here zoomed higher and some are already overbought. Above the 20 level implies more volatility ahead so be prepared for that. Asia was generally higher and Europe mixed overnight. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

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