Friday, September 01, 2017
The rally lives on as the Dow rose 39 points on light volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving higher. Short term overbought now for the major stock indices. The employment data was soft but the market moved higher anyway. That's what I mean when I say the market has the feel of wanting to go higher. The data doesn't matter even if it isn't positive because it will be viewed as positive regardless. I got stopped out of the SPY September put trade for a loss of 33%. I might try this trade again next week, which is what I should have done in the first place. GE was up over fifty cents on heavy volume. Finally some buyers have showed up here. Any pullback from here is the chance to get the longer term calls in my mind. That could be my next trade as well. Gold rose $8 on the futures and the US dollar was higher as well. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on light volume. Gold and the gold shares have had a nice run for the past couple of months and will be due to take a rest here shortly. That will be the time to decide whether to try the calls there or not. I will try not to chase it here. Mentally I'm feeling OK despite todays trading loss. That was a mistake that didn't feel right from the start. The actual trade to make was getting the SPY calls on the open after the North Korean missile launch. That was a technical set up that I chose to ignore because I was so focused on doing the put trade. There's a chance the SPY put trade can still work next week. But there is also the distinct possibility that the market runs up to new all time highs in the September option cycle before we actually see a meaningful decline. The small stocks are leading the way here and that's bullish. We'll have to see how things go when all the players return next week. The volume going higher here hasn't been good. I'll have a long holiday weekend to figure out my next move. Europe and Asia were generally higher overnight. It's a hot Friday summer afternoon and time for a break.
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