Tuesday, September 19, 2017
Another day of waiting on the Fed as the Dow rose 39 points on light volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index continues to head higher. The McClellan oscillator gave a signal last night for a big move in the next two trading sessions. If the signal is valid we'll see some movement one way or the other tomorrow. We remain short term overbought for all the major stock indices. I still think tomorrow could go either way despite the overbought condition. However I did purchase some SPY October puts today. My original open order wasn't filled so I canceled it and went with a closer strike price and less money at risk. The stop loss order is in. If we do rally from here, I will try this idea again in a few days. GE dropped 1/4 on good volume. Trying to find a bottom here? Who knows? Gold rose a few bucks and the US dollar was a bit weaker. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on very light volume. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep enough. So the next trade is in. Plenty of time for this to work but tomorrow will probably tell the story if there will be a profit or not. There is really nothing out there that says we're on the verge of a huge decline. However we are overbought, have been and are overdue for at least some downside in the near term. That's my story and I'm sticking to it for now. It could all change tomorrow. I will say that there are potential negative RSI divergences on the weekly chart for the S&P along with some other big cap stock averages. So we'll see. Europe was higher and Asia mixed overnight. We'll watch what happens tonight and check out the markets reaction to the Fed tomorrow.
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