Tuesday, May 19, 2015
An up and down day with not a lot of conviction either way. The Dow gained 13 points on average volume. The advance/declines were negative. Waiting for something to get a trend going but nothing just yet. The major stock indices are short term overbought. Not much to do here but watch and wait. Of course, you don't make any money that way but you don't lose any either. Perhaps if we continue the light volume levitation, I'll try some June SPY puts. But the better idea in my mind is waiting for a pullback to get long. GE was up a few cents and the volume remains light. Patience here. Gold took a fall today finally on the stronger US dollar. A delayed reaction I suppose. The precious metal futures dropped twenty bucks as the dollar gained a full point. The XAU shed 2 7/8, while GDX dropped 3/4. I did put in an overnight order for some ABX June puts but it wasn't filled. I was a day late and it is frustrating. I'm looking for more downside for the gold shares. Mentally I'm doing OK with the exception of missing this gold share trade. I probably should have done more work over the weekend but this idea just occurred to me yesterday. Had I been paying better attention, perhaps I would have seen it over the weekend. The overall market was weaker than the Dow today which was the opposite of yesterday. The TRAN also reversed course. The big caps are hitting new highs but the small stocks are not. That is not the scenario for an extended rally in my view. This type of price action usually happens towards the end of an up move. So we'll see. The volume has been weak and that isn't a positive either. But the summation index is still pointing up and as I've said before, there is no overhead resistance. Plenty of time in the June option cycle, so we'll see how things play out. I believe that gold is about to begin an extended decline. The gold shares are overbought both short and medium term. Puts there are advised but they are already more expensive than yesterday. We'll watch the foreign markets overnight and see what the Fed has to report tomorrow.
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