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Thursday, July 31, 2014

Well, so much for a quiet Thursday ahead of the employment report.  The Dow got clobbered today and fell 317 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 9 to 1 negative.  The summation index is still heading lower and with a vengeance now.  We were oversold and remain that way.  There were plenty of clues that we were going to head lower but once again I failed to capitalize on them.  However make no mistake going forward.  Rallies can be shorted.  We closed on the low of the day for the S&P 500 and that should spell even more trouble tomorrow.  My guess is that we'll make it to the 50 week moving average and that is 100 S&P points from here.  Look for September puts.  GE lost 1/2 on good volume.  Oversold, staying there and we just broke through the 50 week moving average here.  GE was a precursor to what's happening.  Longer term trend lines have now been broken here.  So that's a clue as to what is going to unfold in the days and weeks to come.  Gold fell $14 and dropped below the $1290 level.  The US dollar was little changed on the session.  The XAU fell 2 points.  ABX and GG lost 1/3, while NEM shed 2/3.  Volume was summer average.  The earnings came out for ABX and GG but in a market environment like this, earnings take a back seat.  My ABX October calls are now in the red.  My thinking is that perhaps I should just dump these and take the loss but I figured I'd at least wait until the employment report tomorrow.  Mentally I'm feeling OK considering.  My ideas at the moment are not working.  There were clues out there that I did not follow.  I did not figure what the inability of the McClellan oscillator to get through the zero line implied, although I knew it meant something.  The obvious breakdown in GE was there but I did not take enough notice.  The poor breadth was noted but it did not sink in to my mind to act on it.  The Bollinger bands did contract but you can never exactly know which way that they will break.  But the markets don't wait for you or hear your excuses.  It is where we go from now that counts moving forward.  The bell has sounded.  We are going lower.  How much is the question.  I'll be looking for September OEX puts on a bounce.  If the McClellan oscillator can't make it above the zero line again, the decline will get uglier.  We are moving into the favorable seasonal time for gold.  However when the market goes sideways, it usually takes everything with it.  If gold and the gold shares can hold in here and turn around, then the ABX October call trade has a chance.  That could happen if we get a flight to safety theme on fear to arise.  But that remains to be seen.  We'll get the employment report tomorrow and things will probably get volatile off of that number.  We'll watch for downside follow through overnight in the foreign markets and go from there.

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