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Thursday, July 03, 2014

In a holiday shortened session the Dow rose 92 points on very light volume.  The advance/declines were positive but not as much as an up 92 market would project.  The employment report was cheered as we expected yesterday.  When the market is in a bull mode, everything has a positive spin to it.  It's not a bad thing and we'll enjoy the ride.  However the volume once again is lacking and some sort of pause is overdue.  GE gapped up 1/4 and the volume was light.  On the move higher here and we'll have to see if it is for real or just a snap back to the broken uptrend line.  Gold fell $10 on the futures as the US dollar was higher on the day.  Gold did come off of the lows of the session though as buyers remain evident.  The gold shares did not follow gold lower as the XAU added 1/8.  ABX was up a dime, while GG and NEM had fractional losses.  Volume was light.  I would really like to see some extended decline for the gold shares in the next couple of weeks to get positioned in the October calls.  However the strength in the gold shares at these levels cannot be denied.  Just like the overall stock market, buyers are coming in on the dips.  It is not a good idea to go against that trend.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It seems like it is just up, up and away for the stock indexes.  The Dow reached 17000 for the first time today.  There is no overhead resistance.  The summation index has been trending higher but it hasn't had huge gaps higher.  The general public isn't enamored with the stock market even at these levels.  That tells me we have higher to go.  When everybody is out there talking about how great the market is, that will be the time to get worried.  We are not there yet and it may take years.  That doesn't mean I don't think that we will see some extended downside action in the autumn.  I do.  But that should set things up for the next leg higher.  Gold has stalled in the past two weeks after a two week run up.  The gold shares continue to out perform and that is a positive.  It may simply be that I have missed this trade to the upside.  The US dollar was higher this week and that is not supportive for gold.  But the dollar hasn't closed above the 50 week moving average yet, so the jury is still out there.  A long weekend coming up and then only two weeks left in the July option cycle.  I'll be checking the charts and trying to come up with a game plan going forward.  For now it's Thursday afternoon and time for a break.

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