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Monday, March 31, 2014

We finished the month off with a rally, as the Dow gained 134 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive.  Todays market action should turn the summation index back to the upside.  It appears as though we will be making a run at new highs again for the S&P 500.  That is the feeling I get after today.  But I would not be trusting whatever rally we see here.  The small stocks are well off of their highs and would not confirm new highs in the major indices.  Perhaps the small caps can make it to new highs as well but that has yet to be seen.  The short term technicals for the stock indexes have turned back to the upside.  GE was flat on the day and the volume was average.  No trades here for me yet.  Gold fell 10 bucks on the futures and the US dollar was a bit weaker as well.  The XAU dropped 2 1/8.  ABX and NEM were off 1/2, while GG fell 2/3.  Volume was light.  I placed another order for the May ABX calls and it wasn't filled.  I still think this is a trade that is worth attempting, so I'll probably try again tomorrow.  Gold itself is oversold, staying there and just about where I think the support lies at $1280.  The gold shares remain oversold on a short term basis as well.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Beginning of April tomorrow so we could see some positive money flows coming in for stocks to begin the 2nd quarter.  It now looks like the major stock averages are on the verge of breaking out of the recent sideways pattern to the upside.  Of course things could change tomorrow but with the technicals now moving higher and the summation index no longer falling, the odds favor higher prices near term.  I could be wrong.  Gold and the gold shares remain unloved at this point.  My guess is that gold will find support here pretty soon.  Perhaps between $1280 and $1260, not exactly at $1280.  Nothing is ever exact in this game anyway.  I like to buy when nobody wants things and right now nobody wants gold.  The technicals are certainly oversold but can remain that way in sustained down trends.  I'm going to try the ABX calls again here at some point and going out to the May option cycle gives that idea plenty of time to work.  But that doesn't mean that it will.  We'll watch the overnight developments around the world and start the new month and quarter tomorrow.

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