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Friday, March 14, 2014

Still moving lower as the Dow fell 42 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The market is still being held hostage by the situation in the Ukraine.  Short term oversold and we will see a bounce on Monday or Tuesday regardless.  That's my guess at the moment.  The PPI actually came in with a negative reading and I was expecting a high number due to the advance in the CRB for February.  So much for my economic predictions.  It's a headline driven situation at the moment for the stock indices.  That makes for tricky trading and there are only five days to go in the March option cycle.  GE was off 1/4 and the volume was light.  The weekly indicators appear to be rolling over for GE and that doesn't bode well for things going forward.  Gold continues to attract capital as the futures rose $6 and more in the aftermarket.  The US dollar was a bit weaker.  It is interesting to note that gold is getting the flight to safety money while the US dollar isn't.  The XAU added 7/8.  ABX and GG had slight fractional gains, while NEM rose 3/4.  Volume was good here.  I really have to wait for some type of pullback on the gold shares in order to attempt the calls again.  The technicals remain overbought and when the Ukraine situation resolves itself, money will flow out of the sector.  But I definitely missed this move.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Thinking about trying a short term OEX March call trade on weakness Monday.  The advance/declines haven't been overwhelming on this decline and we are oversold.  It will be something to consider over the weekend.  However short term option trades are not a strength of mine.  But the opportunity may present itself.  We'll see.  Gold continues to rally with the price and volume in a very positive direction.  But I feel that once the Ukraine event is over, the fundamentals for gold just won't sustain the rally.  Anyway, my recognition as March being the historically weakest month for the price of gold hasn't been any help this year so far.  No doubt that clouded my judgement when considering taking a position in the gold shares.  I did try the ABX calls this week but wasn't filled on the open order.  Doesn't matter now.  I'll try and come up with some type of game plan for trading next week over the next couple of days.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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