Tuesday, June 14, 2011
Got the bounce today as the Dow gained 123 points on average volume. The advance/declines were over 4 to 1 positive. Summation index still pointing down but I think the decline is over for now. I'm basing that on the daily S&P 500 candlestick chart, which now shows a bullish reversal pattern. Even if we drop back again tomorrow, I think we've seen the lows for this move. I could be wrong and often am. The technicals for the stock indices are still oversold but coming off of their lows. I might try the OEX puts for June but with only 3 days to go before expiration the risk is very high. It would probably be wiser to stay on the sidelines. GE was up 1/4 but off of its highs for the session. Volume was average. The 200 day moving average has held for now. Gold gained $7 and a little more in the aftermarket. The XAU rose 3 1/8. ABX and NEM were up around 1/2, while GG gained 7/8. Volume was light. The dollar dropped a bit today. There doesn't seem to be much interest in the gold shares here. The Gold/XAU remains strongly in the buy zone yet there hasn't been a rally in the gold shares. I'm keeping an eye on things here and will eventually try the calls. The weekly technicals are in the oversold zone. Mentally I'm doing the best I can. The botched trade of last week still weighs on my mind and not trying the calls again yesterday didn't help. The analysis has been solid but the trading tactics need adjustments. It's the continuing ongoing battle with myself. As usual it's a work in progress. Getting back to the stock indices, I'd expect to see a move back up to the declining tops line. That equates to around 1325 on the S&P 500. This should take a few weeks and that could be the area to try the OEX puts again. We'll see what happens if we get there.
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