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Thursday, June 16, 2011

Another interesting day in the markets as the Dow gained 64 points on average volume. The advance/declines were negative though and the overall market was weaker than the Dow. It looked like we were falling off a cliff but the stock indices rallied in the final hour. I'd like to think that we are trying to put in some type of short term bottom here but the market will go where it wants to. Summation index still heading lower. It is possible that there is a bullish divergence on the S&P 500 RSI daily technical indicator. We'll see if that pans out. GE opened below its 200 day moving average but ended the day back above it. Volume was average. I think that keeping an eye on GE here is important. I believe that the 200 day moving average is the line in the sand. I could be wrong and often am. Gold was up a few bucks and the US dollar was flat. The XAU fell 4 1/8. ABX down 7/8, GG lost 1 1/2 and NEM shed 2/3. Volume was good. Yesterday I thought that I would not be making any trades in the gold shares for a while. Today, I'm not so sure about that. Gold has held up surprisingly well here, however the gold shares have been pummeled. The Gold/XAU ratio remains overdue in the buy zone. I'm actually considering trying the gold share calls for July. Some type of bounce is long overdue. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Volatility is at its highest since March. The technicals on the stock indices are all oversold. Many of them are trying to hold at their 200 day moving averages. We are at an important juncture. If we do not hold up here, I think we will be heading much lower sooner rather than later. My own belief at the moment is that we'll have some type of bounce here and then head lower later this summer. But we all know how my ideas have worked out lately. We'll close out the June options tomorrow and go from there.

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