We bounced around lower for most of the day to end the month. The Dow lost 122 points and most of that was in the last 15 minutes. Advance/declines were negative and the volume was light. No follow through to yesterdays positive action. I'm still leaning towards trying the OEX puts if we make it back to the down trend line. But who knows? Maybe we will collapse before that happens. Or maybe the decline is over and we start a bit of a rally. No clear technical signals here. So it's even more of a guessing game than usual. Gold was basically flat again and the XAU fell 1 2/3. ABX off 1/3, GG down 1/4 and NEM led the way negative by over a buck. Volume was light. The dollar was stronger today. I have no solid idea of what to do with the gold shares at the moment. Almost back at a Gold/XAU buy signal. Gold has held up very good considering the damage done to the stock indices of late. But where we go from here is a mystery to me for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept well. There are a lot of crosscurrents in the markets at the moment. Volatility has returned in a big way. A long holiday weekend is upon us. There will be plenty of time to go over the various charts and try to figure out what to do. There is a lot of uncertainty and the markets never react well to that. So I'll check things out over the next 3 days and go from there. But for now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

We got a bounce today and in a big way as the Dow gained 284 points. Advance/declines were 8 to 1 positive and the volume was average. There will be no crash for now. The summation index looks like it will hold near the zero line. Unless we do a complete turnaround tomorrow and I doubt it, we should hold in here for a while. That doesn't mean we've seen the low for the year here. I expect more weakness later this summer into the fall. But that's just another guess as usual. GE was higher along with the market and I have no trades planned there for now after missing this upside move. Gold was flat today but the XAU was up about 5 points in sympathy with the overall market. ABX rose about 1/2, GG up 7/8 and NEM gained 1 3/4. Volume was light compared to lately. The dollar took a big hit today as the flight to safety trade wasn't popular today. ABX didn't move up as well as it should have considering todays market action. Thankfully I'm not in a trade there at the moment. Technically the gold shares look like they could still move higher here. However if we get a sustained up move in the stock indices, gold could lose some of its luster. Mentally I'm feeling OK. So what's the next move? My thinking at the moment is to get some OEX puts when we reach the down trend line that comes into play at about 505. If we get there and we are short term overbought, that will be the play. Could happen next week. That's my idea for now. End of the month tomorrow and a long holiday weekend coming up. I would expect volume to be light. I'd ideally like to have the OEX puts before next Fridays employment report. However the market is never that accommodating.

Opened higher and closed lower today as the Dow lost 69 points. That type of price action usually isn't a good sign. We were up well over 100 points early. Advance/declines were positive and the volume was pretty good again. We are oversold and not even getting a decent bounce. It could be dangerous to the downside here. We're about to cross the zero line in the summation index and a crash is possible. Normally there isn't even a threat of a market breakdown barring an abnormal event such as a terrorist attack. However we are now at a critical technical juncture concerning the market itself. We need to turn around in a hurry but I expect weakness tomorrow. We'll see. I still may be interested in the GE calls since GE is showing good relative strength. Gold was up $15 today but the XAU dropped 1/2. ABX fell 1/2, GG was flat and NEM lost 1/3. Volume was average. The dollar had another good day. Perhaps I'll try the gold shares here again but it's risky. However there is still a buy signal on the Gold/XAU ratio. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep enough. I really think that tomorrow could be a crazy day. We are oversold by all accounts here. I'll have to go over everything tonight and decide if I'll try the GE calls or the ABX calls. But if we do collapse it'll probably be a couple of days. Hopefully I'll be wrong as usual and the market will find its footing here. But I won't be surprised if it doesn't.

An interesting day as we opened very negative, down over 250 points and made it almost all the way back. The Dow lost 22 points on heavy volume. Advance/declines were negative. I tried to buy the GE calls but my order wasn't filled. It came within a penny of getting filled but it didn't happen. I'm leaving the order open as I expect some weakness on Thursday. This is probably the start of a short term bounce and I'm not happy missing it but what can you do? Still oversold but when you have action like today, you expect some upside near term. If for some reason we start to drop again here then the market is really in trouble. Gold was up $4 and the XAU rose 5 points. I also was looking at the ABX calls but they never showed any weakness and I did not place an order. We actually could be starting another up leg here for the gold shares. The relative strength is very strong once again. One day we are weak on strong metal prices and the next day we are up on the gold shares without the metal participation. So it's a confusing scenario as well. ABX and NEM up 1 1/4, while GG gained 1 1/2. Volume was heavy. The Gold/XAU ratio signal was valid and it is still in place. I may try the ABX June calls, we'll see. If we get a reflex rally it could damper the flight to safety play though. So there are a lot of crosscurrents in all the markets at the moment. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep long enough. So I would expect some strong follow through to the upside tomorrow in the stock market. If we don't see that, then I would be concerned. Gold itself could go either way I think but it's all just a guess. The short term should remain volatile.

The Monday following option expiration is usually the opposite of what happens on the expiration itself. Today was no exception as the Dow lost 126 points on light volume. Advance/declines were negative. We are oversold and staying there for now which could be dangerous for the bullish cause. Due for some type of bounce though. The VIX was lower but so were prices and that doesn't add up as well. We are weak and there is no getting around that. I'm still pondering the GE calls for June but haven't made up my mind just yet. On the sidelines for now. Gold had a good day, up $18 on the futures. The XAU was flat. Another example of things just not adding up here. ABX, GG and NEM were all little changed after being higher early on. Volume was light. Still a buy signal on the Gold/XAU ratio. But when we have gold itself up almost twenty bucks and the gold shares don't do anything, it's time for caution I think. The dollar had a pretty good day as well. That doesn't mean that I won't try the gold share calls here but I'll have to let a base build first. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep well. End of the month coming up this week and a holiday weekend. Summation index still heading lower. Is there any reason to buy stocks here? I certainly don't know. Key support comes in at around 1060 for the S&P 500 in my opinion. I don't have a good idea of what to do here even after going over things this weekend. So I'll most likely sit it out this week. Maybe I'll see something going over the charts tonight but I feel it's time to be cautious. Option premiums are high as well. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Started to bounce today as the Dow gained 125 points on expiration Friday. Volume was very heavy again and the advance/declines were about 3 to 1 positive. Deeply oversold and the expectation is for some relief and we got that started today. How far we go higher and the strength of of the move is the question. I'd expect more upside on Monday. GE opened with a gap down and was much lower at the open. However my call ticket wasn't filled. GE came all the way back to finish up a dime but the options barely moved. I canceled the open order and will re-evaluate this idea over the weekend. Gold was off $12 on the futures. The XAU was up 1 1/4 in sympathy with the overall market. ABX and GG were flat after being down early. NEM gained 1/3. Volume was average. The dollar finished off a touch. Gold and the gold shares are short term oversold here but technical damage has been done to the recent up trend. I'll probably stay away from trading the gold shares here for a while but you never know. Mentally I'm doing OK. An interesting week just concluded but it wasn't profitable for me. I should have recognized the situation a lot better. So it goes. I expect that we'll mover higher here and at the least stabilize things for a while. But I don't see any great rally like we just witnessed from the March 2009 lows. I expect lower prices down the road which will set up a buying opportunity in the autumn. That's my guess at the moment. So I'll be checking the charts over the weekend and see if there is a trade for the June option cycle. Perhaps GE, we'll have to wait and see. When we dropped early today and the GE call order wasn't filled it sometimes tells you something about what is going on. GE may not have enough price movement to be a viable option trade. Things to ponder. For now it's Friday afternoon and the weekend is here.

It's liquidation mode as the Dow got clobbered and lost 376 points on very heavy volume. Advance/declines were over 10 to 1 negative. It's a run to the exits. Now we are deeply oversold and due for a bounce like we saw a couple of weeks ago when the Dow soared over 400 points in one day. The McClellan oscillator is back in that extended oversold range. I have an order in for some GE June calls to try and take advantage of the supposed upcoming bounce. It's entirely possible that we just continue to collapse here as well. That's because there are things going on that just aren't reflected in the technicals. We saw this before in the autumn of 2008. It would probably be wiser to just step aside here but I'm going to take a chance with the GE calls if they get filled. Gold fell another $5 and was lower in the aftermarket as well. No flight to safety there yet. The XAU was off 7 3/4. Still have a buy signal on the Gold/XAU ratio. ABX fell 1 3/4, GG off 1 1/2 and NEM led the way lower by 2 1/2. Volume was heavy. The gold shares have broken their up trend lines from the lows of February. Perhaps we'll get a snap back to that line but it looks like the gold shares are going to take a rest. We'll see. The dollar was lower today but it didn't help gold. Crosscurrents there at the moment. Mentally I'm doing OK. Option expiration tomorrow and that will have an impact on trading. I do expect strength in the market at the beginning of next week and that is why I've got an order in for the GE June calls. Again, this may not be the smartest thing to try considering my track record of late. Especially the latest ABX call trade just completed that blew up in my face. However when there is perceived opportunity I've got to try and take advantage of it. I could be wrong. The fear level has reached extremes but it could go even higher. So we'll see what happens tomorrow.

It was another downer as the Dow lost 66 points on heavy volume. Advance/declines were better than 3 to 1 negative. We are in liquidation mode, for whatever reasons. Oversold and staying there which is never a bullish scenario. I still feel that there will be weakness into the end of this week but probably not enough to try the OEX puts with 2 days to go. But you never know. Summation index continues lower. It isn't a meltdown just yet but could be later this year. Volatility remains higher than average. Gold dropped over $20 today and the XAU fell 6 and change. ABX off 1 3/4, GG down over 2 bucks and NEM fell 1 1/2. Volume was heavy. My ABX calls got killed. It was a 90% loss. I didn't have a stop loss order in but it dropped so fast not even that may have prevented the devastation. But that's what happens when you trade the options during expiration week. It can work out big for or against you. The Gold/XAU ratio is back on a buy signal but there isn't enough time for the May option cycle to take advantage. I simply blew that trade. It didn't feel good when it got filled and time was not on my side. Should have exited yesterday but hindsight is always profitable. Mentally I'm doing OK, slept well enough. I really should just step aside here and let the May expiration pass. But I still think there could be a trade in the OEX puts if we get a bounce tomorrow morning. Very risky though and there's the problem of just trying to make back the money that was lost today. That is never a good strategy. I also expect a decent move to the upside on Monday. But it's all just a guess and my guesses haven't been right lately. The prudent path would be to sit out the next 2 days and take it from there. We'll see.

Opened higher and closed lower as the Dow lost 115 points. Advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative and the volume was good. Summation index still heading lower. The market just isn't going to cooperate for me to try the OEX puts. We are headed lower but subject to a bounce at any time. The risk of trying the OEX puts at this point probably outweigh the reward. We'll see but I don't think I'll be trying it. We are oversold but I would have to see a move back to the daily down trend line to chance the OEX puts. I don't see that happening in the next 3 days. Gold lost $13 on the futures but came back a bit in the aftermarket. The XAU lost 1 1/4. ABX was flat, GG lost 1/4 and NEM fell a buck. Volume was average. My ABX May calls are still at a loss. This is a trade that doesn't feel like it is going to work. The dollar is soaring and that is keeping a lid on the price of gold. I'll really need to be ready to dump this trade tomorrow. We did hold the daily up trend line in ABX today but any weakness tomorrow will break it. We'll see what happens overnight. Mentally I'm tired, did not sleep well or enough. The market cannot get any traction here and I am expecting lower prices going into the end of the week. But anything can happen in such a short time frame. My focus will be on ABX and the price of gold. If we get any type of strength early, I'll have to get rid of those calls. It looks from here that it will be a cut the loss trade. 3 days left in the May option cycle.

We were down for much of the day today but the Dow came back and managed a gain of 5 points on good volume. Advance/declines were negative. I'm expecting a positive bias for the beginning of the week. I would expect tomorrow to be an up day. My game plan is to buy the OEX puts at some point on Wednesday if we are higher. It's all subject to change and as usual I could be wrong. Often am. Oversold here and due to bounce again. Gold was flat on the futures but fell in the aftermarket. The XAU lost almost 4 points. ABX and GG were off around a buck. NEM dropped 2/3. Volume was average. I put in an order for some ABX May calls last night and it got filled this morning. I did not expect that. Not a lot of money in this trade and it is showing a slight loss. Risky, that is why I don't have the usual amount of money that I would normally trade here. This already has the feel of a trade that I don't want to be in. I'm out tomorrow or Wednesday. The dollar was much higher today and then moved all the way back. With gold weakness in the aftermarket, perhaps the flight to safety trade is being taken off the table. We'll see. Mentally I'm doing OK, did not feel well yesterday. 4 days to go on the May option cycle. So now I'm in the next trade and it may be that I am just late to the table on this. I like the OEX put idea for later in the week better. However the ABX calls will be the focus for now. We'll see what gold does overnight and go from there.

Volatility has returned as the Dow lost 162 points today. Advance/declines were 6 to 1 negative and the volume was average. I was hoping we would hold up until Monday but it was not to be. I still might try the OEX puts next week but the risk will be high. Again, the timing will have to be good to succeed. There isn't really a clear signal and the short term trades are not my strong suit. However, the summation index continues lower indicating that the trend is down. Gold was pretty flat on the day. The XAU rose a point. ABX up 3/4, GG up 1/4 and NEM up 1/2. Volume was heavy again. The gold shares opened higher, sold off early with the general market and then came all the way back. Who knows, perhaps I'll try the gold share calls next week. The relative strength remains strong. The volume in the ABX May 45 calls today was extremely heavy. That is where I will be looking but it may be too late there as well. The dollar was very strong today as well, which may have affected the price of the metal. We are overbought on the gold shares but have been for quite a while. Option expiration week is coming as well. It will be interesting. Mentally I'm feeling OK. There will be opportunities next week. Whether or not I can take advantage of them is the question. We all know that it won't be easy. With 5 days to go on the options, things will get compressed. I have the feeling that I'll be trying to do something though. I'll have to go over the charts this weekend and come up with a strategy for next week. For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Selling in the last couple of hours took the Dow to a loss of 114 points. Volume was average and the advance/declines were negative. You had to expect that we weren't just going to go up in a straight line here. I do think that the OEX puts will be the next trade before the May expiration. The timing is the key. Perhaps today was the time to buy. I think the optimum scenario would be to purchase them early next week. So I'll be looking for the market to try and head back to around 532 on the OEX and go from there. Gold was off $13 on the futures and the XAU lost 3 1/3. ABX down 7/8, GG off 3/4 and NEM dropped 1 1/2. Volume was average. You've got to figure that the gold shares need a rest too but they have been so strong lately that any drop could be short lived. I don't know if I'm going to try a trade there in the next 6 days because we are overbought and have been for quite a while. But we'll see. The dollar was higher again today. Perhaps if we do drop next week the flight to safety trade will still be in play. Mentally I'm doing OK. So we've had a decent bounce in the indices and the next question is what's next? I would expect some type of retest of the lows of last week but I don't think it will be extreme. I'd like to see the VIX reach 22 in the next couple of days to attempt the May OEX put trade. That's probably wishful thinking. I think that I will let tomorrow pass and then look to do something early next week.

The Dow continued to move higher today with a gain of 148 points. The advance/declines were 5 to 1 positive and the volume was average. The market has a feel that it just wants to go higher. It's as if last week never happened. I certainly don't know what the reasons are. We've worked off the oversold condition. I sold the OEX calls I had at break even. Though it feels like we're going to go higher, the option premiums were not moving like I had expected. I was lucky to just get out. This was a trade that I should never have attempted. We had a huge move in the right direction and these options didn't show a profit. Gold was up another $22 today. The XAU only rose 1 3/4. ABX was off 1/4, GG was flat and NEM up 1/2. Volume continues very heavy. I am going to hold off on a gold share trade for now. They are overdue to take a rest. But who knows? There's still 7 days left in the May option cycle. The dollar was up a touch again today. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept well enough. I'm thinking about the OEX puts for my next trade, perhaps next week. Not exactly sure though. The McClellan oscillator is quickly heading back to the zero line. If we break through it, higher we will go. My thought is that we will stall there and head back down. But that's a guess. It is possible that we just go higher from here all the way through expiration but I doubt it. I'll be checking things over tonight and go from there.

We were lower, we were higher and we ended down on the Dow for the day by 37 points. Volume was good and the advance/declines were positive. I really don't know why I am still holding on to these OEX calls. They got to break even today but now they are back in the red. We are working off the oversold condition and I am quite sure there will be another run down in the indices before May expiration. Really need to dump them tomorrow. Gold was up $20 on the futures and is at an all time high in the aftermarket. The XAU was up 7 1/2. ABX rose 2, GG and NEM about 2 1/2 apiece. Volume exploded to the upside. The gold shares are the place to be. You cannot ignore price and volume. That is where my focus should have been. Another missed move for me but we've heard that before. The dollar was up a touch today. Gold has taken on a life of it's own. I suppose the next time the gold/XAU ratio is in the buy zone, I'll give that a try. Mentally I'm doing OK. Hopefully we'll get some strength for the indices on the open and I can get rid of the OEX calls. Probably should have just sold them today. We've already had the bounce. We'll see how it goes tomorrow but I'm not optimistic.

Quite a snap back rally as Europe cut a bail out deal over the weekend. The Dow rose 404 points on heavy volume. Advance/declines were almost 10 to 1 positive. We were deeply oversold on the McClellan oscillator, so todays action was not a surprise. Where we go from here is the question. The OEX was up 20 points and my calls are still losing money. Bad timing there. I'm looking for some follow through to the upside tomorrow morning and then I really have to get out. There's a slight chance that I will hold them until Wednesday. But this obviously was an ill advised trade. Gold sold off hard early but came back to be down around $9. The XAU was up almost 5 points. ABX rose a point, GG up 3/4 and NEM tacked on 2 points. Volume was good. There remains interest in the gold shares. Perhaps that will be the next trade for the May cycle. The dollar sold off today as well but then came back. The gold share charts have worked off their overbought condition. There could be more room on the upside there. When I'm done with this OEX trade, I'll be looking there next. Mentally I'm a bit tired, could have slept better. So we got the bounce and it was a good one. I expected my OEX calls to make it back into the black but it didn't happen. This is a trade that I need to get out of due to the volatility in the markets at the moment. Perhaps tomorrow but Wednesday at the latest. Anything above break even would be considered a success.

A lower end to quite a week as the Dow dropped another 140 points. Volume was very heavy for the second day in a row. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 negative. We're in a tailspin here and the volatility is incredible. It is a rerun of the autumn of 2008 at the moment. Very oversold and I am counting on a short covering rally here to exit my OEX calls. This should occur in a day or 2. The McClellan oscillator is blown out to the downside. A bounce is inevitable. It probably won't turn the OEX trade profitable but it should cut the loss. The employment report today was a non event with all the market turmoil here. Gold was up $5 on the futures and another $10 in the aftermarket. The XAU fell 2 3/4. ABX off 7/8, GG down 1/2 and NEM lost over a buck. Volume was very heavy here as well. The gold shares haven't been following the metal here and that to me is a warning sign. The dollar was lower today but it didn't help the gold shares. Strangely enough there is a buy signal right now on the Gold/XAU ratio. Either the gold shares are going to rally strong from here or the price of gold is going to drop. Stay tuned. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Obviously I should have never entered the OEX call trade but who knew that the market was going to implode? It is still being blamed on some type of order mistake or computer glitch. That doesn't make things any better though. So I'll have to mitigate the loss and I'll do that on Monday or Tuesday. I've checked my records and whenever we get readings like the ones we have now on the McClellan oscillator, there is a one day snap back move to the upside. I'm counting on that and expect to see it at the beginning of next week. Right now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break in the action. I'll check the charts over the weekend and get ready for Monday.

Volatility exploded today as we had a mini-crash in the stock indices. It is being blamed at the moment on a trading error at a major NYSE firm. The Dow lost 348 points today after being down almost 1000 points. The volume was huge. I can't get an accurate number right now on the advance/declines but suffice it to say they were very negative. The McClellan oscillator is now deeply oversold. It is in the area where a bounce should occur. With that in mind I actually purchased some OEX calls today. Not a wise move. They are showing a loss. This will be a short term trade of a day or two. We'll see. Gold was a safe haven play again as it rose about $20 and even more in the aftermarket. The XAU only gained 1 3/4 however. ABX and GG were up 3/4 and NEM rose over a buck. Volume was heavy. We are just about at another buy signal on the Gold/XAU ratio, even though we are overbought. The dollar continues higher as well. At some point gold will have to notice the dollar strength but the safe haven trade rules for now. We are now over $1200 on gold and obviously that was the area to trade. Still may not be too late. Mentally I'm a bit weary from todays action. Tomorrows employment report seem like an afterthought with all the problems in Greece. The prudent thing to do here probably was to stay on the sidelines. I didn't and it will probably cost me. That said, The McClellan oscillator is blown out to the downside here and a decent bounce should occur. We'll see what happens tomorrow.

Down another 60 points today as the tone of the market has changed. Volume was good again. The advance/declines were almost 4 to 1 negative. The summation index is now moving down. Rallies can and will be sold. I will buy some OEX puts when we get a snap back. I would like to wait until next week but we'll see. The employment report on Friday will be the next event. I think that I will let it pass before taking on the next trade. Gold was up $5 today but the XAU fell 1 1/2. ABX and GG were little changed after being much lower early. NEM lost 3/4. Volume was average. The dollar continues higher but gold refuses to sell off. I'm still thinking of getting some ABX calls again but am holding off for now. It's a tough call there. We're working off the overbought condition but a stronger dollar will eventually have a negative effect on gold prices. The question is when? However with all the problems in Greece, the safe haven play of gold remains in effect. So it's a tough call one way or the other. Mentally I'm feeling tired, did not sleep enough. Volatility has returned and it makes things a bit more difficult. The speed of the game increases. If I had to guess, I think we're about to get some kind of bounce here. But I could be wrong.

Back to the downside as the Dow lost 225 points. Advance/declines were over 5 to 1 negative and the volume was heavy. I am going to say that the top for the stock indices is in for a while. The weekly charts show an A-B-C-D-E, 5 wave pattern from the lows of March 2009. Tops are made with volatility and that has certainly returned here. If we get any type of snap back move it can be shorted in my opinion. I'm still looking towards the OEX puts but it may be too late. Todays action should put the summation index in a clear downtrend. Gold dropped $14 on the futures but came back a bit in the aftermarket. The XAU fell a couple of points as the gold shares held up rather well, which has been the case as of late. ABX and GG were about flat after being lower early. NEM lost 2/3. Volume picked up. The dollar was up 1% on the day and gold finally reacted lower as it should. But the gold shares relative strength continues here, so I won't rule out another ABX call trade before expiration. Plus with all the uncertainty regarding Greece and the euro here, safe haven plays could be in vogue for a while longer. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept well enough. Volatility in the stock market has returned. It makes the trading game a lot tougher but when isn't it tough? Option premiums are raised during times like these which makes things more expensive. That in turn increases risk. There's a chance I may just let this week pass and wait until the employment report is digested. We'll see.

Starting the month of May on a positive note as the Dow gained 143 points. Volume was average and the advance/declines were about 3 to 1 positive. Back and forth we go here. Building a top or ready to go to recovery highs? That is the question here. Summation index is trying to break down but it hasn't yet. Actually more oversold than overbought here. I'm not exactly sure what to do here but I'm leaning towards the OEX puts near the end of the week. That's todays guess. Employment report on Friday. Gold was up a couple of bucks today but the XAU fell 2 1/2. ABX off 3/4, GG down 1/2 and NEM lost over a buck. Volume was light. Gold remains strong with the dollar rising as well. The gold shares diverged today from the metal and that could be trouble. Or not. We may have just taken a day off from the uptrend. Overbought here though on the gold shares. However volume was light on the pullback. I'm still considering buying some ABX calls again before expiration. Risky though. We'll see. Mentally I'm doing OK, could have slept better. Was today beginning of the month money flows or something more? Lots of questions here and that isn't usually conducive to profitable trading. I'm still leaning towards the OEX puts before the employment report but we'll see. Gold is overbought but it looks like it wants to try new highs. A lot to think about as usual but I don't see any clear picture as to what to do just yet.