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Tuesday, December 09, 2008

We were overdue for a pause and we got one today with the Dow down 242 points on average volume. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. The overall market was stronger than the Dow. I still am in the camp that says we are in some type of longer term rally here. I would be surprised if we just fell apart here and I do not expect that to happen. But I've been wrong before. Gold was up 5 bucks and the XAU managed a 3/4 gain. ABX, GG and NEM had fractional gains on average volume. We are right at the weekly downtrend line for the gold shares and I expect an upside breakout. The dollar was just a touch stronger today. If we break through on the upside in the gold shares I may have to jump on board. Volume will be the key. GE lost a bit over a buck today on average volume. I'd like the January calls here if we get more of a pullback. The daily technicals are still in overbought territory. I'm going to try and be patient but you never know. Mentally I'm feeling OK. I think I have a handle on the market here as we seem to have moved back to a more normal situation. Volatility isn't what it was, lately. Sure, that could change but it is December and people have their minds on other things. I'm sticking with my upside market scenario and will trade accordingly. It seems to me like a market that wants to go higher.

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