Thursday, October 09, 2008
Wrong again. I was looking for some type of rally here and it definitely didn't happen. Oversold and staying there which as todays action suggests, is dangerous. The Dow lost 678 points on heavy volume. Advance/declines were 10 to 1 negative. It's as oversold as it gets. What I'm asking myself today is why haven't I been short? Incredible amounts of money are being made there and I missed it. Preoccupied with the gold trade? Too many other things going on outside of the markets? Feeling ill? No sense in looking back now. Even if I had owned some puts, I would have sold them long before today. But as I've said before, the normal technical analysis just isn't working in this type of environment. Gold lost $20 today but has rallied in the aftermarket. ABX lost 3/4, GG down 1 1/2, NEM off 3. All down on good volume. Now exactly how much longer am I going to hold out of the money GG calls with a week to go? I am getting as crazy as the market. Gold itself has held up well here but the gold shares just aren't keeping up. The premise was correct it seems but the trading vehicle was wrong. GE was off over a buck and a half on extremely heavy volume. Do the earnings tomorrow even mean anything anymore? I would like to have the guts to buy some GE calls tomorrow. Or lack of brains. GE is not going out of business and it's under $20 a share. We will see a bounce eventually and that is when you can take your profits. Sounds good in a reasonable market. Which this isn't. Mentally I'm tired and still not feeling well. Maybe being sick is a blessing in disguise since I haven't done anything stupid like buy OEX calls lately. I'm getting better though. Where do we go from here? Well the decline won't last forever. It's gone a lot further than I imagined. I'm thinking if GE is weak tomorrow morning I'll look at the December calls. But that's a guess just like anything else in trying times like these.
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