Friday, August 17, 2007
We had a nice expiration relief rally today with the Dow up 233 points. Advance/declines were about 7 to 1 positive. The only thing missing was the volume, which was light. The Fed cut the discount rate. Has the decline ended? That's the question of the day. It's probably over for a couple of weeks perhaps. But of course there will be surprises along the way. I can't say that it is completely over just yet. September can be a down month a lot of the time due to lack of money flows. Plus the volume on the rally is suspect. We are at the least going to eventually test the lows of yesterday. Gold snapped back $8 but it wasn't that great in my opinion. The dollar lost some ground also due to the rate cut. ABX and NEM were both up around 40 cents on good volume. I would have liked to see more upside. The gold share buy signal is still intact but it doesn't feel like a rally will occur at the moment really. My options didn't move. I'll need to see some better progress to the upside here or I might just bail out. GE had a great day, up 1 1/4 on very heavy volume. Perhaps it was a flight to quality. The weekly up trend line has held for now. Perhaps that will be the place to get long. At this point it looks like it. We should retest that as well and that could be the spot to purchase calls. We'll see. Mentally I feel fine with a good nights sleep. This was quite a week and I suspect we will slow down for the rest of August. That's just a guess because this market is nervous. September options have an extra week on them, plus the recent volatility which will keep the premiums high. There will be opportunities as there were in August. As always you just have to keep going in the game. But for now it's the weekend and time for a short break before we see what next week brings...
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