Friday, August 24, 2007
The Dow had a good day up 142 points. Advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. The only thing missing was the volume which was light. The shorts got squeezed, meaning me. The OEX puts I have are about to be stopped out. I never trust light volume rallies except for the fact that it is the summer and now for some reason things have slowed down. We also broke the daily down trend line today to the upside. However the volume really doesn't confirm it. But you can't argue with price. The summation index is pointing towards higher prices longer term. So the OEX trade becomes a cut the loss affair at this point. It's all you can do. The timing wasn't correct. Gold was up 9 bucks today and the XAU gained over 3 points. ABX was up a half and the volume was light. I would have liked to see better volume there. But like the overall market perhaps the sellers are gone. GE was up around 40 cents on average volume. The indices closed on their highs so we should see some follow through Monday morning. We are overbought and staying there which I did not expect following the recent sharp decline. Perhaps there won't be any retest of the lows. That's what I was counting on. Fortunately the recent volatility combined with the extra week on the options means I haven't lost that much on the OEX puts as yet. I'll have to bail out next week even if they don't get stopped out. Mentally I'm doing OK. My thinking is that we have seen the lows for this decline last week. I could be wrong. I will be looking to buy calls on any down draft. That seems to be the guess for the scenario going forward. For now it's the weekend and time to take a break...
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