Pageviews past week

Monday, March 26, 2007

The Dow was down 12 points on average volume today. Advance/declines were slightly negative. We were down over 100 at one point. At any rate, we are still overbought and I would expect some weakness near term. Gold was up around $7 but the XAU only gained a point and a half. Most of that was due to FCX. ABX was basically unchanged and the options didn't move. There was a lot of volume in the ABX options as well as NEM. I'm sure most of you have heard of volume and open interest studies. It has been my experience that volume and open interest don't have much of a predictive value. I have seen them both expand and the stock and options do nothing. I have seen them contract and the stocks and options move a lot. So it has been my experience to not let them dictate my trading tactics. That said I wasn't happy that the gold shares couldn't gain any ground with a $7 rise in the metal. We are overbought here as well. I'm still holding on to the ABX calls for now. Mentally I'm feeling fine. No big trades on the horizon and we still have 4 weeks left in the option cycle. Not a whole lot of data this week, new home sales were down and that sent us down 100 points earlier. A shortened holiday week next week. So I'll be looking for some overall weakness in the stock market and hope that the gold shares can hold up in the face of that.

No comments: