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Monday, August 14, 2006

The Dow gained 10 points today on light volume. Advance/declines were positive. The market was up over 100 at one point but couldn't hold it. That usually isn't a good sign. We are getting short term oversold though. I am going to try and not do anything stupid this week. The longer term charts for the OEX look like they could be shorted. The summation index could be rolling over here. I have some September puts on the screen already and I guess that's where I'll look to. Gold was off 5 bucks and the XAU lost over 2 points. The volume has picked up to the downside on ABX and NEM. Interesting. Perhaps the market is telling me that interest rates will be rising, helping the dollar and driving the price of gold and stocks down. Perhaps not. It could be a result of the ceasefire announced and beginning today in Lebanon. Or the action could just be option expiration week related. It never is easy. We are headed into the seasonally weak period for the market though. I want to own some puts. I don't see any big rallies on the horizon for the market here. Mentally I'm a bit frustrated with not being able to get a firm handle on things. There are also some outside pressures that I'm dealing with that make things difficult. However I will not let anything interfere with the tasks at hand. The market must be studied, probed and taken advantage of. Opportunities are coming, if not here already.

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