The Dow lost 41 points to end the month today. Volume was average and the advance/declines were slightly positive. We have been moving sideways for a while now. I don't foresee any big moves anytime soon but what do I know? Not much. Gold was down around 4 bucks today and the XAU lost a point and a half. I bought some NEM calls on the pullback. I'm believing that the gold breakout was for real and I expect gold to go over $600 before the options expire in 3 weeks. I could be wrong, as I was earlier in the week when I sold the ABX calls at a substantial loss. I did say that I needed to take a break but I now feel the opportunity is now. Sometimes you have to be flexible. I could be entirely wrong on this trade and will sustain heavy losses. I also could be right in my assessment of what is going on. Trading is not an exact science. I believe in what I'm doing and we'll have to wait it out and see what happens. Mentally I need to get some rest over the weekend. This has been a tough week. But I am trying to stay focused and do what needs to be done. I am taking a risk here and I will do my best to make it work out the right way. The markets will do what they do. I think I'm doing the right thing here. Time will tell. I'll check the charts over the weekend and start all over again on Monday.

The Dow lost 65 points today on expanding volume. Advance/declines were negative but not by much. End of the quarter tomorrow. Might see some swings. I think the market wants to go higher here though. I don't see any big decline at the moment. That could change, as always. Gold continued to rise and it broke out to new highs on expanding volume. It was up over $9. ABX was up over 80 cents and the volume was good there as well. We are overbought and up against some channels. I'm going to buy some more calls on a pullback or sideways action. I regret selling earlier this week but you've got to make adjustments and my original prognosis earlier seems to be proving correct. Of course it could all blow up in my face again too. I'll wait, hopefully, for gold to come back to $575 and get long there. I think we are going over $600 before these options expire. The ABX calls I still have a slightly in the black. I might switch to NEM or perhaps some XAU calls for the next trade. We'll see. I do have some targets in mind. And again, I also have to keep in mind that I could be wrong and that this won't work. But the volume has come in and there is a breakout. More tomorrow...

The Dow bounced back and was up over 60 points today. Volume looks like it was a bit better than yesterday and the advance/declines were about 3 to 1 positive. Perhaps the decline yesterday was a one day wonder. Time will tell. The end of the month is upon us and maybe that is bringing in more money. Gold actually came back and was up over 2 bucks today. The XAU rose over 4 points. And I'm kicking myself for selling the calls yesterday. But not too hard because you just never know. But ABX was up over 60 cents today. Now perhaps this trade would have worked like I originally thought but what can you do? I'm still holding the cheaper purchases but I sure would like to have them all now. But I'm not going to lament over what has happened, I've got to just keep moving on. I already have big losses for the year so I'm going to try and do the rest of this trade correctly. Todays gold action was on lighter volume but perhaps all the sellers are gone for now. The action was very positive. We'll see how the week closes out there. Still 3 weeks to go after this one and I should have taken that into consideration yesterday. But I was early there and put too much money in it. Mistake compounded by mistake. Trading isn't easy. Mentally I'm trying to stay steady amidst the ups and downs lately. This is a crazy game. I've got to get my act together fast. I will try and get back to the things that are necessary for success tonight. The work never stops. Back to gold itself, we are up to the resistance at $575. A break through there will be interesting but it hasn't happened yet.

The Dow lost 95 points today after the Fed raised interest rates again. Volume was light to average and advance/declines were negative. The Fed statement was hawkish and that led to the decline. It was the biggest loss in a while if my memory is correct. Gold sold off after the Fed move and that killed the rally that had been going on for about a week. I sold half of my ABX position at a substantial loss, about 75%. I don't think that ABX will be coming back after todays action and I probably just should have dumped it all. But hope is always a bad thing sometimes and that is all that is left in this trade. I've seen some strange things happen in the market but I don't anticipate anything saving the rest of this. I put too much money in this trade and that is why the loss is so great. That was a mistake and the discipline that was missing killed me. It is not a lesson that really needs to be learned at this juncture of my career but I got greedy and paid for it. There is nothing I can do but go on, perhaps with a little better perspective. Greed kills. It doesn't matter how many times that a set-up works, there is always the chance that it won't work when your money is on the line. My 1st quarter results are disastrous. Last year I was able to come back and have a good year after starting off just as poorly but to pull that off again is really asking a lot. I'll have to go slow and cautious from here. I still have half the ABX trade to get rid of. More losses most likely. Mentally I'm doing as good as can be expected with heavy losses weighing on my mind. I'm also tired from not sleeping well from all the drama in my life outside of trading. I need to get the focus back. I need to get the discipline. I need to go back to what works and forget all the rest of the bullshit. The work needs to be done and I have to stay with what I know is viable. This is a big hole to climb out of and I did not want to start the year off this way. But it is what it is and I will have to regroup and go from here. It's a tough game but I will do my best to get back on track and do the right thing...

The post is a bit early today due to the fact that I'm getting my car worked on. The Dow is up 15 points with just a few minutes to go. Advance/declines are positive. Seems like the market is waiting for the Fed on Tuesday. Gold soared $10 today. The XAU is up over 3 points but the volume isn't all that great. Most of the action is in AU, which has some type of buyout in play. ABX is up around 40 cents but it isn't helping the options much. I would have expected a better move in the gold shares given the action in gold. Perhaps the luster is off the trading in gold. The weekly charts do look promising though but we will have to see legitimate upside action next week. I don't know if that will happen. I think that perhaps the sideways scenario will play out. We'll see. Mentally I really think I need to get out of this trade and take a few steps back. I feel fine but my confidence isn't where it needs to be. I need to go back to the basics and not dwell on what looks to be a substantial loss. The markets are closing and the Dow looks to be up about 7 points. Volume looks like it picked up a bit from yesterday. That's it for today. I'm playing golf again on Monday so the next post could be Tuesday.

The Dow lost 47 points today on light volume. Advance/declines were about even. It seems like the market wants to go higher. Gold was down a bit but the XAU rose 2 points. That could bode well for the gold market. However ABX did not participate and was down a dime. And there lies the problem. Once again the gold market is moving to the upside but the particular stock that I'm in isn't moving. It's happened before and it is very frustrating. But it brings out an important point. You gotta stick with the indexes to guard against this very thing happening. I learned this a long time ago. There is less of a chance for manipulation. I can't explain why ABX isn't moving along with everything else. I am going to have one of my biggest losses with this trade. I don't think it will be moving back to the upside strongly. I think at this point it will linger in a sideways motion. There is nothing left to do but take the loss. There are 4 weeks left but I don't think that will help. The fundamentals are not in it's favor now. I blew it. I don't know if I can recover for the rest of the year. It will be hard for me to go on. Mentally, I'm spent. There is way too much going on outside of the markets in my life to be able to cope with it all right now. This is the time to step back from trading but unfortunately I'm in up to my neck. I've got to go back to square one. I need to learn from this debacle and do the right thing from here on out. It isn't going to be easy. So I'll just have to takwe it from here and see where it takes me. There are no excuses. I screwed it up...

Up about 82 points on average volume. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive. Gotta make this quick because I'm running a bit late. Gold was down over 2 bucks but the XAU didn't move much. ABX continued to slide and it looks bleak for the options. At this point it will be my biggest loss ever unless it starts to turn around. I really broke one of the cardinal rules and put way too much money in this trade. The set-up had worked the previous times but it doesn't appear to be good this time. It's like I said before, it's my own fault. Discipline must be adhered to and I didn't do it. Mentally I'm shot now. There is no excuse for making dumb mistakes. I don't even know if I can recover from this one. This is not the way to run the business. The focus isn't there. The confidence is gone. And it's not even the end of the 1st quarter. I'll somehow have to try and regroup but I think some time away would serve me well at this point. More tomorrow...

The Dow lost 39 points today on what looks like light volume. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 negative. We were higher early in the day and then just fell off. Not trades in the making for now. There is an extra week on the options for this cycle so they are all pretty overpriced. Gold was down over $3 today and the XAU lost 2 and a half points. My ABX calls are getting killed and there may not be any hope for this trade either. I did say I would give it a couple weeks, so we'll see what happens. But right now it looks bleak. Perhaps my thinking was wrong as that is what it looks like at this point. I suppose we could form a bottom here and rally, time will tell. But it really doesn't look too good at the moment. I took yesterday off from the blog as I went hiking. Mentally I'm doing OK, with the exception of this poor trade. But I've seen some strange things happen with the gold market and so I haven't given up hope on this just yet. I'll know more by the end of the week. It won't take a miracle but it will take some sustained upside action. Or maybe it just dies. I am still way overleveraged in this trade and that is my own fault. No getting around that. So sometimes you just get what you deserve. Otherwise there is really nothing else to say...

The Dow rose 26 points today on good volume. Advance/declines were positive. It wasn't a volatile sessions, even with the option expiration. We are overbought and I wouldn't be surprised if Monday was a down day. Gold was little changed and the XAU didn't go anywhere either. ABX was up about 50 cents at one point and my options were in the black. But it sold off at the close and was basically unchanged. I didn't like the action. It doesn't bode well for early next week. Perhaps I should just get out of this trade and maybe today was my chance. But I will give it the 2 weeks that I said I would. Obviously my timing wasn't that good at the entry. This whole thing could blow up on me if we don't see some movement to the upside next week. It isn't the best of trades at the moment. You somehow have to keep going in this game. It is frustrating at times and this is one of those times. Mentally I'm doing what it takes as far as keeping up with my readings of the blue book and various magazines looking for insight. I am learning what I can but it is a mental game at this point, internally. I'm doing what I can. I will be taking off early on Monday to take a hike. I'm hoping it will clear my head out and then I'll be ready to continue the game. I'll check the charts over the weekend but I already think that they won't be bullish. I'm going to try and relax but we'll have to see what happens...

The Dow was up 43 points on good volume. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. We are overbought and I wouldn't be surprised by a pullback. Expiration tomorrow and anything can happen. I have no trades on the horizon. There is an extra week in the options cycle for next month so the premiums will be inflated. Gold didn't do much today and the XAU was down a point. ABX did not move much, it was down a nickel. The options are showing a small loss. We have moved to overbought there as well and I suppose the most I can hope for is sideways action. I'm really hopeful that I bail out of that trade in a couple weeks because I am overleveraged there and that is a mistake. However, I was a believer in the trade at the outset and I still think it could prove to be a winner. Mentally I'm doing fine, plenty of sleep. I am simply concentrating on the ABX trade and that is where the focus will be. Next week will be pivotal because I can't afford to have a big drop in the shares. It looks OK on a weekly basis and the extra week could actually help me there. That's it for today.

The Dow was up 58 points on better volume. Advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive. The Transports hit a new high. We have broken out of the S&P trading range to the upside. All systems point higher I guess but we will have to wait and see just how far this goes. Could be an options expiration event. Could be for real. Gold was higher early but backed off and was only up around a buck. The XAU rose about 2 and a half points though. Unfortunately ABX did not go along for the ride. It was only up a few cents. The options are now almost breakeven. I'm giving it until the end of the month and maybe not even that long. I don't know what to expect but I was pretty positive when the trade began. Getting back to the overall market, we are overbought and on a trin basis also. You can't argue with price action though and we have moved higher. We'll see what happens. Mentally I am doing better. Got plenty of sleep last night. I really need this ABX trade to be done right. It's up to me. The trading so far this year has been terrible. I have the parameters for this trade and it will be up to me to keep them. I've got to remember not to get greedy. I'm hoping this trade will launch me into a series of decent actions and not into a year of abysmal abyss. Time will tell...

The Dow gained 75 points on light volume. Advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 positive. My puts got stopped out for a 50% loss. There wasn't a lot of money in this trade but it was a loss none the less. I gave it a shot and failed as has been the case for most of this year. I don't believe this rally, the volume just isn't there. Could be an expiration thing. Whatever the case, it's another bad trade. Gold was up another $5 today and the XAU gained over 2 points. Unfortunately ABX didn't rise with it. It is showing a small loss and more and more I'm thinking about just getting out and taking a break. But I did say I would give it until the end of next week. Nothing seems to be working of late. It really is time to scale back. Mentally I'm just not there as I have found out some bad news concerning my family. I would like to just close out the ABX trade but the show must go on. I'm also tired as I haven't been able to sleep good lately. So this really isn't the optimum time for me to be taking on risk and trying to play the game. The focus will be lacking due to outside influences. Knowing this and recognizing this is important. There isn't anything I can do about it for now. Having an overleveraged position at this time doesn't help things. But I will persevere because it's really all I can do...

The Dow was basically unchanged today, down 32 cents. Advance/declines were positive and the volume was light. I took a small position in OEX puts today. The stop-loss order has already been placed. My thinking is that there was no follow through to the 100 point rally of Friday and the volume has been light. No volume equals no interest. Another more important factor is that the summation index is still pointing down. There is not a lot of risk in this trade but there is not a lot of upside either unless we really get a breakdown. I don't see that happening but who knows? The technicals are mixed here but I'm taking a shot. Gold was up over $5 today but the XAU barely got higher by a point. ABX was up fractionally. I am still giving this until the end of next week so I'm looking to get out but not yet. This trade is now showing a small loss and I am way overleveraged here and it's my own fault. I still believe in it though so I am staying in for now. Not much else on the radar screen. Inflation data on Thursday. I'm not looking for much but you never know. Retail sales tomorrow. Mentally I'm dragging a bit from a poor nights sleep but hope to make up for that tonight. My mind is focused and my trading tactics this time are at least bearable. Whatever the outcome at least some things were done properly...

The Dow rose 104 points today on what looks like light volume. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive. I am thinking of getting some puts on Monday. But I don't know for sure. Will check things over the weekend. I lost money on the XAU trade today. Gold opened up down over $10. I bailed out for a substantial loss. It didn't make sense at the time to hold on any longer. The loss was around 75%. Since the ABX calls have 6 weeks to go, I held on to them as opposed to taking a huge hit there as well. Gold came back to be down about $5 on the day. However the XAU came all the way back to be up over 2 points. The options I sold for a big loss made it back to breakeven. What can you do? Nothing, it's over and done with. Should I have held on? In retrospect, of course I should have. But you can never predict what's going to happen. I did what I thought was best at the time. I was wrong. The ABX calls came back a bit but nothing great and I'm still losing money there and I own way too many of them. I took more of a chance there and will hold them for a while at this point. I need to see a good week for gold next week to feel positive about this trade. I'm still thinking that it was the right thing to do but I really have too much money in that trade. The markets are tough. Mentally I'm going to try and make some money next week. I think that I have a viable play on the OEX puts if the timing is right. It probably won't be a lot of money and it shouldn't be with so little time left. I'm a bit tired from getting up early today. I'm a bit frustrated with the lousy XAU trade but it isn't as bad as I thought and I'm trying not to beat myself up over it. I will perhaps take a break after next week to clear my head out. But this weekend I will be working hard to figure out the next move. Sometimes you've just got to keep on going because really, it's all you can do...

The Dow lost 33 points on light volume. Advance/declines were negative. I did not take any OEX positions. Gold was up over $2 but the XAU lost over 2 points. My XAU calls were higher in the morning but closed lower and are now in the red. We are at around 125 and need a close tomorrow at 128 or better. Needless to say, I should have just gotten out in the morning. This trade is looking terrible. I need to exit tomorrow. That is probably the most prudent thing to do. What wasn't prudent was buying some more ABX calls for April. I have put way too much money into this trade. ABX was down over 80 cents today and I don't know what to say. We are way oversold here. Every time it has gotten this blown out it has rebounded. There are 6 weeks to go in these options. I just don't know about this time though because it looks like gold is really breaking down. And if the XAU doesn't show some life tomorrow, I could be a fool. I am breaking one of the key trading rules here by taking on too much risk. The trade is too big. I am taking a chance because I believe that this will work and sometimes you gotta break the rules to get good returns. Employment report tomorrow. Should be a market mover but it hasn't been lately. Mentally I was at the dentist today and that threw things off for a while. I need to get back to the blue book and get my act together. I know it seems like I say this all the time but if things are going to change for the better, discipline must be adhered to. Bottom line is that the trading must improve and I'm the only one who can do that.

The Dow was up 25 points today on average volume. Advance/declines were slightly negative. We were down over 60 points and bounced. That's all I think this is for now. It is a somewhat confusing market here because we have collapsed on the summation index and McClellan oscillator but prices have held up pretty good. I don't know what to make of it. Perhaps will buy puts tomorrow if we get to the downtrend line. Gold got killed today, down over $12. My overnight orders got filled right away in the morning. I'm nervous but that is nothing new. The XAU ended down about 3 points and ABX was off around 50 cents. Amazingly the options are about where I bought them. The XAU has to close the week at 128 or above for that trade to work. It's at 126 and change. I really need to get out of that as soon as possible because there is a chance that the uptrendline will be broken. We'll know more in the next couple of days. I also might dump the ABX calls if they get profitable because I think we will move sideways and I can get them cheaper within the next couple of weeks. But it is just a guess. We do need to hold the line here and only time will tell on that. But this is the area to take a chance so we will see what happens. Mentally I'm a bit tired but it's manageable. Thinking that I have to check the charts thoroughly tonight. The time is now...

The Dow gained 22 points today on somewhat light volume. Advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative though. Yesterday we were down around 60 points on good volume. I missed posting due to playing a round of golf. The summation index has rolled over and is pointing down. However we are shot term oversold and a bounce is due. Also the McClellan oscillator will be very negative after today, probably below -150. So I would expect a bounce but I think the trend is down and might get some puts on a bounce. We'll see. Gold lost around $5 today and the XAU dropped below 130. I had some orders for calls in but they were not filled. This is the area where I expect support to come in. The weekly trendline is here. But there is always a chance the line could be broken. Gold itself doesn't look all that good on the charts. I have some open orders in for the XAU and for ABX. The XAU is just a short term play for March, with ABX going out to April. I was confident about this trade before so I'm going to chance it. But I know full well that this could be the end of the run in gold also. I'm playing that it isn't just yet. ABX looks like the better trade, chartwise. I might try some OEX calls tomorrow also if the opportunity presents itself, although I feel the puts might make more sense after a bounce. But it's hard to tell what might happen and the market will always do what it must to frustrate the most. This is an interesting time in the markets and I sincerely hope that I'm up for the challenge...

The Dow lost about 4 points on lighter than lately volume. Advance/declines were negative. It wasn't a very good close. We were up over 70 points at on point. The volume was light and the advance/declines were weak. We also were at the recent highs. I should have had the guts to buy some OEX puts but I didn't. The signal just isn't there clearly. But after todays action, I don't think it needs to be clear. I think puts are the way to go here. I will check things out over the weekend. The McClellan oscillator will be key I think. The only problem is that we could just sit in a sideways pattern and that won't be easy to deal with. It's never easy. Gold was down a couple bucks and so was the XAU. I'm trying to be patient there and I will be, hopefully. It looks like we are trying to build a base here and that is my belief. I would like to make a strong play here because I think it has the potential to be a great trade if I can pull it off. But I don't want it to take up all my time because there will be opportunities elsewhere as well. But it is the main one I'm looking at, since the OEX is proving difficult at this time. Perhaps Monday will provide an opportunity to get short but it won't be as good as it was today I'm afraid. Mentally I can't beat myself up over missing out on a potentially good trade because you just have to keep moving on. I am trying to focus and do the things necessary for success. It should be automatic at this point but my mind has many other things on it right now. I need to take this weekend to get it together and come back with a definite gameplan on Monday. This is the most interesting and most difficult game in the world. I need to be up for the challenge...

The Dow lost 28 points today on pretty good volume. Advance/declines were negative. It seems the volume has picked up a bit on the downside lately. We have really gone nowhere for a couple weeks and it is very frustrating. The sideways action is not making for any big moves or profits one way or the other. I am leaning towards the downside but have no clear signal. It's getting harder for me to sit it out but I must for now if I can. Gold was up $4 and the XAU rallied over 3 1/2 points. Last night I noticed that ABX was right at the weekly trendline. This is the same line that I am waiting the XAU to hit. I thought about getting some calls but I was too late. ABX had a very nice move and the volume increased. Perhaps the XAU isn't going to go all the way back to the uptrend line. I am going to wait though because I have missed this move and we might come back down again to thwart whoever got calls today. I would like to go out to April on those options. The volume was there though, so I can be positive about getting the calls for gold. Getting back to the overall market, I'm just going to have to wait for something decent to appear as far as a signal goes. Perhaps they will take one last stab at the upside and then that could be it. Just a guess. Mentally I'm doing OK I guess. Sleeping enough, getting to bed on time. I would like to do something in here somewhere but I must guard against trading just to trade. Looking back on last year I made most of my money trading gold. Perhaps I can repeat that again...

The Dow rose 60 points today on average volume. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive. And so it goes. My intuition tells me that this is the snapback to the uptrend line that was broken. But most of the technical indicators are not supporting this theory. I hope that I have the brains to just stay out here but I don't know. We'll see what happens tomorrow. I should just be patient and wait for a good signal. Gold was up a couple bucks and the XAU rose 2 points. This has the potential to be a good trade when it happens and if it happens. But I need to wait for it and I will. Getting back to the overall market, I have seen that the beginning of March has been negative for the last couple of years. We are in that timeframe right now. Employment report is out on Friday. Could be a market mover but lately it hasn't. Perhaps that will change this week. But this is a guess as are most things when it comes to the economic releases. Mentally I did not get a lot of sleep last night but I'm feeling fine. I am fighting myself here to not get jumpy and trade just because I haven't in a while. It is a hard thing to do. Also I feel as if the market will roll over here but I could be wrong. The same type of action occurred at the end of last month and then the market moved higher. There is a lot of money floating around and it needs a place to go. Tough game and I don't like fighting myself. I also need a good trade to get my confidence back. Perhaps the sidelines are best for now...