Thursday, November 20, 2025
Today we witnessed a dramatic one day downside reversal as stock indices had a huge gap up at the open only to turn around and close with big losses. The Dow fell 386 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving down. We saw the rally out of nowhere that we were looking for but were not able to take advantage of it. Things were simply moving too fast for our liking and there was only a couple of days left in the November option cycle. Opportunity lost you might say and you are not wrong. However I am more of a position trader as my short term trades usually end up in defeat. The NASDAQ led the way lower despite a good earnings report from NVDA which produced the early market buying. The S&P 500 was up over 125 points early on only to roll over and finish at the lows for the session down over 100. That is some kind of crazy volatility. The short term indicators for the S&P are oversold and the daily candlestick chart looks bearish. Near term support should kick in around 6500 but there are no guarantees. Something is going on here but we ceratinly don't know what. The market holds the ultimate truth. Gold lost $8 on the futures. The US dollar finished flat and interest rates dipped. The XAU slid 15 points, while GDX lost 3 1/3. Volume was heavy to the downside. The short term indicators for GDX are back to heading lower and it closed below the 50 day moving average again. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher and that is not a surprise. The short term indicators are overbought and staying that way for now. As long as the VIX remains above the 20 level it will be a rocky road for stocks. Not sure how long this lasts. Option expiration Friday tomorrow which could be crazy but I can't see it being as volatile as today. But markets go where they want. Asia and Europe finished higher overnight as they were trading off of the NVDA earnings. We'll close out the week tomorrow.
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