Monday, August 14, 2017
We got the bounce today as the Dow gained 135 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is still moving lower. The SPY August call trade that I had envisioned won't happen. I was looking for some more downside to put that trade on but the market didn't cooperate. My next idea will probably be for the SPY September puts at some point. It's possible that the decline we saw last week is over and we simply trend higher from here. But I will have to see some more volume to believe that. If we are higher into the end of the week, I'll consider the SPY puts. GE was up about 15 cents and the volume was light. This stock still cannot get anything going to the upside. Gold dropped six bucks on the futures as the US dollar was higher. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume. I'll probably try the gold share calls if we get oversold again in the near term. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Every decline that we've seen since the election has eventually led to higher prices. Will that be the case this time around as well? That is the question. We are in an unfavorable seasonal time for equities but whether or not that plays out is undetermined at the moment. We're in option expiration week and can expect the usual positive bias. That may set things up for the SPY September puts. The McClellan oscillator did reach an extreme oversold reading last week.. Was it the initiation of something lower or the exhaustion of the selling. As usual the market leaves us with quite a few questions with no clear answers. Asia was mixed and Europe higher overnight. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.
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