We ended the year with a thud as the Dow lost 178 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were not even 2 to 1 negative.  That is the only positive that I can see here.  The summation index is still moving up but appears to be stalling.  The S&P 500 finished the year negative.  The Santa Claus rally isn't here.  The usual action this time of year is buying to try to get ahead of the crowd.  This year it seems like there's selling for the same reason.  I am not positive on the stock market for 2016.  I could be wrong, as I was this year.  GE was up a dime and the volume was pretty good.  GE has held up well lately and is out performing.  It is not however, acting as a clue to where the overall market is headed.  Gold was flat on the session but the US dollar was higher.  The XAU and GDX had little change on light volume.  I don't see much progress for gold in the coming year.  The fundamentals here remain negative in my opinion.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  My SPY January calls are back solidly in the red.  As much as I don't want to begin the new trading year with a loser, it appears that will be the case.  The entry timing was horrible and the market is heading lower.  The short term technical indicators have rolled over for the major indices.  We only need the summation index to turn around here and the rout will begin in earnest.  So stocks went nowhere in 2015 and 2016 doesn't look any better.  But time will tell on that.  We'll close the books for 2015 with a slight trading gain of 2%.  I'll be checking the charts as usual in the next few days.  It's time to enjoy a holiday weekend.  Happy New Year everyone.

Back to the downside as the Dow fell 117 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative.  There was no upside follow through to yesterdays positive price action.  That is a problem for the bulls.  The summation index is still heading to the upside but the lack of prices going forward today is a bad sign.  This is generally a positive time of the year but the market isn't quite cooperating just yet.  My SPY January calls remain in the red.  GE was off 1/4 and the volume is still light.  It looks like GE could potentially roll over here but we will have to see what happens tomorrow.  Gold was lower by $7.  The US dollar was little changed.  The XAU fell about a point, while GDX was off around 1/3.  Volume was nothing special.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The final trading day of the year is upon us.  It looks like a loser this year for the Dow.  The S&P 500 is close to break even.  Tomorrow will tell the story there for the year but it certainly wasn't a good one regardless.  My trading showed a slight gain for the year but there were too many big losses.  My mistakes tended to be huge ones and that is something that I will have to work on in the coming year.  For the major indices it appears the short term technical indicators are starting to roll over.  Unless things turn around tomorrow, this would not be a positive development.  Tomorrow will finish out the year and end this short, light volume trading week.  The overseas markets were mixed last night with more down than up.  We'll finish the 2015 trading year and get ready for 2016.

Santa Claus arrived today as the Dow rose 192 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 positive.  The summation index continues higher.  I don't trust light volume rallies but it is a holiday week.  We'll see if we can build on this tomorrow.  Only 2 trading days left for 2015.  My SPY January calls are trying to make it back to break even.  GE was up 3/8 on OK volume for this week.  Hopefully GE is leading the way for the bullish cause.  Gold was flat on the futures session as the US dollar was higher.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves higher on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The S&P 500 is trying to finish the year higher.  If we can hold up for the last 2 days it will make it.  The Dow still needs a little over 100 points more to get to break even.  The usual year ending in 5 decent gains did not show up this year.  I don't know what that means going forward.  The short term technical indicators are now overbought for the major stock indices.  It's possible they can stay that way but who knows?  I still plan on holding my SPY January calls until the new year.  The foreign markets were generally positive last night.  We'll keep an eye on things overnight and see what tomorrow brings.

Quiet trading as the Dow fell 24 points on very light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is still moving up.  The Santa Claus rally hasn't shown up yet.  This rally is historically the last 5 trading days of the year combined with the first 2 trading days of the new year.  So we still have 5 days to go.  Not a lot of economic data due this week.  A lot of players will be off as well.  My SPY January calls are still mired in the red.  GE was up a few cents and the volume was light.  Perhaps GE can help get things moving to the upside.  Gold was off $8 on the futures.  The US dollar was little changed.  The XAU was down 2 points and GDX fell 1/2.  Volume was OK here.  No compelling reason to own gold at this juncture.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Barring some outside shock it looks like a quiet holiday trading week.  Of course this won't help my SPY trade but the environment is what it is.  The foreign markets were mixed overnight but more negative than positive.  We'll keep an eye on things tonight. 

A very quiet day of Christmas Eve trading as the Dow dropped 50 points on extremely light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index continues higher.  My SPY January calls are still in the red.  GE fell 1/8 on very light volume.  Gold was up seven bucks as the US dollar was weaker on the session.  The XAU was up a little over a point, while GDX added 1/3.  The same very light volume here.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Next week should be slow.  Perhaps some early buying in anticipation of next year or some late tax loss selling.  I do not expect anything dramatic.  Perhaps the Santa Claus rally will appear.  We'll see.  Merry Christmas everyone.

More holiday upside as the Dow gained 185 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 6 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving higher.  That is now 3 days of triple digit gains for the Dow and that cannot be ignored.  The short term indicators have now all turned around.  We're not overbought yet so there's even more room to head higher.  It looks like the market got a head start on the Santa Claus rally.  My SPY January calls are still losers.  GE was up 1/2 on what passes for light volume these days.  Once again trying to break out of the top of the Bollinger bands.  We'll see if it makes it this time around.  Gold was flat on the day while the US dollar was bit higher.  The XAU rose 1 1/3 and GDX was up 1/4.  Volume was light.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It appears that we're seeing a year end rally here as the major averages try to finish the year in the black.  The Dow is still a little over a couple of hundred points shy of break even.  We at least did not break down this week and that is a plus.  The TRAN has had a good week as well and that is positive.  Tomorrow should be a very quiet, light volume, short trading session holiday affair.  The major players have already taken care of business for the year.  Unless there is some major unexpected news event, we should finish off the trading week with a yawn.  We'll keep an eye on things overnight. 

Heading higher as the Dow rose 165 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive.  This should turn the summation index back up.  It appears that disaster has been averted for now.  Perhaps we are getting an early Santa Claus rally.  Whatever the case, we'll take it for now.  The TRAN had a good day as well.  Not all of the short term technical indicators have turned around though.  GE was up almost a dime but the volume is lighter than it has been.  I'm not sure if the January calls are still on my wish list.  GE has been moving sideways for a month and a half.  Gold fell 8 bucks on the futures despite another lower session for the US dollar.  The XAU and GDX were pretty much flat on very light volume.  There doesn't appear to be any reason to buy gold right now.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The market is trying to hold up here and for now we'll give it the benefit of the doubt.  However the market always goes where it wants to.  My SPY January calls are still solidly in the red.  That's what happens with lousy entry timing.  Even a couple strong days in your favor don't do much for your trade.  The only plus here is that there is plenty of time for this trade to possibly work.  I am planning on holding this trade until the first trading day of the new year.  The ideal scenario would be to have a rally into that day.  The S&P 500 began the year at 2058.  I'm thinking that the powers that be would like to keep the year ending in 5 winning streak intact.  A close above that level will ensure that the streak stays alive.  Now that is all simply a guess on my part.  We'll see how it plays out.  Tomorrow should be the last major trading day of the week.  The market will close early on Christmas Eve day.  As always we'll be watching the overseas markets tonight.

It was an up and down session but we moved higher in the last half hour to finished with a gain of 123 points on the Dow.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive and the volume was pretty good considering it's a holiday week.  The summation index continues lower.  Perhaps it can turn around this week but we will need to see more market strength for that to happen.  My SPY January calls are solidly in the red.  At least we didn't completely fall apart today but the week is young.  Plenty of economic data due in the next couple of days.  The market is still on shaky ground for now.  GE was up 1/8 and the volume was light.  Still waiting for a decent Bollinger band breakout from GE.  Gold found buyers on a weaker US dollar.  The precious metal futures rose a dozen on the session.  The XAU was up 3/4 and GDX gained 1/4.  Volume was average.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It was important for the major indices to hold up today and they did.  There is a chance that Friday was simply option related with the blow out downside volume.  If that is the case we can perhaps rally from here.  But I'm not completely convinced yet.  How the rest of the week shapes up is important.  Things could still go either way.  The foreign markets were generally weaker overnight.  The next two days will probably tell the story for the week as the day before the Christmas holiday should be very slow.  So we'll keep an eye on tonights developments and take it from there. 

It's beginning to look a lot like, well not Christmas but a market collapse.  The Dow fell 367 points on expiration extreme heavy volume.  The advance/declines were only 2 to 1 negative again which really has me puzzled.  The summation index continues lower as we approach the zero line.  Either the recent market action is option expiration related or we are in for a crash.  Make no doubt about that.  I really did not believe that the market would fall apart here but it appears to be doing just that.  The TRAN is now making a new low and that's bearish.  The weekly candlestick charts for the major stock indices look bearish.  The short and medium term technical indicators have turned down.  My SPY January calls are losers.  I almost bought some more today at a closer strike price.  But somehow reason appeared in my mind and said that would be like throwing good money after bad.  For once my brain worked and I didn't buy them.  GE was off 1/4 on heavy volume.  If GE continues downwards from here that would be another bad sign if you're long.  Gold bounced back $15 as the US dollar was lower.  The XAU was up 1 1/3, while GDX gained 1/3.  Volume was average.  Perhaps a flight to safety for the gold shares and gold today but I wouldn't expect any sustained rally here.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  At this point I'm a little afraid of what might happen on Monday.  We had a gap down to start the day today and nothing but selling after that.  Plus we closed on the low of the day.  Things just really look bearish after the past two trading sessions.  In retrospect I should have just stayed on the sidelines for the remainder of the year but it's too late for that.  The S&P 500 has never had a down year that has ended in a 5.  We may be on the verge of breaking that.  Is it possible that things will turn around on Monday?  Maybe but it certainly doesn't look probable at this point.  Once again there are things going on underneath the surface that only the market knows about.  Or so it seems.  The breadth in the past two days certainly does not suggest a market down over 600 points.  We now roll into the January option cycle which has 2 less days in it due to the holidays.  We will need to see quite a Santa Claus rally to get things turned around here.  Normally I would expect next week to be slow with Christmas occurring on Friday but in this environment, who knows?  I'll be going over all the charts over the weekend but it is really a time to be cautious regardless.  If we somehow have a strong bounce back on Monday, then my bearish posture here could be wrong.  If we continue to head lower, it could be a pretty ugly day.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

The Dow reversed course today and fell 253 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index did not turn back up and continues lower.  We closed at the lows of the session and that is bearish.  My idea was that declines could be bought and I did purchase some SPY January calls today.  They are already in the red.  Perhaps my take on things here is wrong but time will tell on that.  I don't know how tomorrows expiration will play out but todays price action wasn't what I expected.  GE lost 20 cents on good volume.  Perhaps we had a false breakout from the Bollinger bands here.  Gold got clobbered as it fell over $25 on the futures.  The US dollar had a strong session to the upside.  The XAU fell 3 1/2, while GDX shed more than 3/4.  Volume picked up to the downside.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Already into the next trade and my entry timing was obviously off.  The breadth today was not what you would expect with a down over 250 market.  So that is a plus.  Once we get through tomorrow, I would expect things to slow down for the rest of the year.  The volatility should subside.  However with the summation index turning back down and in close proximity to the zero line we are at risk for a total market collapse.  I do not think this is the scenario that will occur but I could be wrong.  Some of the short term technical indicators have rolled back over for the major indices but not all of them.  Tomorrow will be important as it would bode well for the bulls if we could finish the week on a positive note.  The foreign markets were strong overnight.  We'll keep an eye on them tonight and close out the week with option expiration tomorrow. 

Moving higher after the Fed as the Dow rallied 224 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 5 to 1 positive.  The summation index is trying to turn around here and it should be successful.  The McClellan oscillator is bouncing from a very oversold level.  The short term technical indicators for the major indices are moving to the upside.  Declines can be bought.  Weakness Monday should have been bought but it is always easy looking back.  That was simply another missed opportunity by me.  GE took off today as well.  It gained 2/3 on heavy volume.  We are finally getting a resolution to the contracted Bollinger Bands and it is to the upside.  Another missed trade there for me.  Gold rose $10 and the US dollar was higher as well.  The XAU rose 2 points and GDX added 1/2.  Volume picked up going higher.  Mentally I'm feeling OK but obviously not happy about missing out on this weeks rise.  And there's 2 days to go in the December option cycle.  The TRAN had a big day to the plus side as well, so that means that what we are seeing here is for real.  If the market gives us a chance to get long that is the strategy I suggest.  The Fed is now out of the way.  We'll see the summation index turn around in the next couple of sessions.  So all systems are looking like higher prices are in the future.  We should see the foreign markets rally overnight.  So for now we'll wait for a pullback if one occurs and try to get some SPY January calls.

A better bounce today as the Dow rose 156 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were over 3 to 1 positive.  This rise was expected as the McClellan oscillator was in an area that was very oversold and we were due for something better than the rise yesterday.  The question is now where do we go from here.  I'm looking at the SPY January calls now because I believe that the worst is over for this decline.  My guess from here is that declines can be bought.  Perhaps if we see weakness tomorrow on the Fed, I'll purchase some index calls.  The short term technical indicators are starting to roll back to the upside.  GE was up a few cents and the volume remains good.  The Bollinger bands here have been contracted for a couple of weeks and still we haven't seen a major move from that.  I don't know what to make of it.  I'd still like to own the January calls here.  Gold was off a couple bucks on the futures as the US dollar had a strong session.  The XAU and GDX were basically flat on the day.  Volume was very light.  There is not interest in owning gold at this stage of the game.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We'll get the Fed tomorrow and the whole world is expecting a small rate hike.  Once we get that out of the way, I suppose the market will move on to worrying about the next thing.  Whatever that may be.  If we head lower tomorrow with a good head of steam then perhaps my call for higher prices from here is wrong.  We'll have to wait and see what the market says.  It is expiration week and that in itself brings volatility.  Next week is a holiday week as well.  The major players will be finishing up business this week I presume.  The summation index is still heading lower but today could be the beginning of it trying to turn around.  Or not.  The game, as always, is never easy.  But with a very oversold McClellan oscillator and the short term technical picture improving the odds favor a positive resolution to the question of where we're going.  We'll keep an eye on the foreign markets overnight and see what tomorrow brings.

We got a much needed bounce today as the Dow gained 103 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 negative however.  The summation index continues lower.  I would like to say the decline has ended but I can't with that awful A/D mix.  The McClellan oscillator is still very negative and that needs to change before we can tell that this rout is over.  Todays market action will probably send this indicator even lower.  I would like to attempt the SPY December calls this week because at some point there will be a decent bounce.  But the level at which to try this trade remains the all important question.  Probably a better course of action for me would be inaction.  I am usually not too good at the short term trades.  GE was flat on the day after being much lower.  Volume remains good here.  Perhaps I'll try the January calls but the premiums will have to come down for me.  Gold lost a dozen on the futures and the US dollar was a bit lower.  The XAU fell about 2 3/4, while GDX lost a bit more than 3/4.  Volume was nothing special.  I cannot see anyone buying gold ahead of a Fed that will raise rates.  Even if it is just 1/4 percent.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The Fed on Wednesday will be all the attention of traders.  I still think that the market will rally after the Fed announcement.  We remain oversold for the major averages on a short term basis even with todays gains.  The small stocks underperformed today and that isn't bullish.  The weak breadth is a negative as well.  The TRAN did come off of its lows and is trying to hold up at the lows of August.  This is something to keep an eye on.  The VIX also turned around today.  So there are a mix of positives and negatives to weigh in on.  We are at levels on some of the indicators where things have turned around in the past.  But not everything is lined up to be positive.  Obviously there is something going on beneath the surface that we are not aware of.  Perhaps the sidelines would be prudent and them maybe try something for the Santa Claus rally.  I have yet to make up my mind.  The foreign markets were mostly lower overnight.  We'll see if they rebound taking a cue from the US today.  I'll consider if making another trade in the December option cycle is what I want to do tonight.   

The market ended the week with a thud as a gap lower led to big losses.  The Dow fell 309 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were about 7 to 1 negative.  The summation index continues to slide.  Oversold, staying that way and that is not good sign.  I suppose I should have heeded the market warnings of lower prices early in the week but I didn't.  That's one of my common problems when I'm holding a long position.  But the market is always right and must be listened to.  The retail sales didn't matter as some kind of worldwide liquidation is taking place.  There are problems with redemptions at some institutions that deal with commodities and junk bonds.  At least that is the excuse that they're pedaling.  I certainly don't know.  I did take the loss on my SPY December calls to the tune of 60%.  This trade was a winner early on.  Just another mistake in a year that had a few.  GE was off over 1/3 and the volume was good.  I still like this issue for the January calls but it will have to get oversold for me to try it.  Gold was up a few bucks as the US dollar was lower.  No flight to safety here.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains.  Volume remains weak.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Option expiration week is coming up with the Fed announcement on Wednesday.  There will be some economic data due but when we are in this type of unknown environment the data takes a back seat.  The McClellan oscillator is very oversold and did not have a good bounce yesterday when it should have.  We are now in the territory where we should see some kind of decent bounce with the next couple of days.  However the timing of this is almost impossible to determine because we could have a washout before this occurs.  That is probably what we are seeing now and should have downside follow through in the market on Monday.  How long this washout lasts is the question that I do not have an answer to.  It could set up for the Santa Claus rally and higher prices into the beginning of next year.  Or it could be an anemic attempt to move higher which would be bearish to say the least.  There will probably be an opportunity to get some index calls next week for a short term trade at some point.  I do think that the market will rally on the Fed announcement.  However I am usually never nimble enough to profit form the short term action.  Next week would probably not be an exception.  But I do believe it will be there for the taking.  The summation index is not in the zone for a crash yet.  So expect at least some sort of huge upside move at some point next week.  Keep an eye on the TRAN as well as it has been a leader as to what the market has done lately.  The technicals on the VIX are blown out now as well and in the area where things have turned around.  There will be numerous things to consider over the weekend.  Or you can stay on the sidelines and let what is happening right now play itself out.  I'm not sure which to do but caution is again advised either way.  I did not enjoy booking the loss today but it is part of the game.  I'll be checking the charts over the weekend and keeping an eye on the headlines as well.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.  

Slightly higher today but the market could not hold onto the majority of its gains.  The Dow rose 82 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were about even.  The Dow was stronger than the overall market.  The summation index continues lower.  The market has a feel of gloom to it and we are probably heading lower from here.  All recent buying has been met with selling and that is not bullish.  The retail sales data due tomorrow will most likely be the market mover.  Six days left in the December option cycle.  My SPY December calls remain losers.  GE was up 18 cents on OK volume.  I canceled the open order for the January calls here.  I might try it again but at this point GE has moved too far away from the strike price that I desire.  Gold fell five bucks on the futures as the US dollar bounced back.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves one way or the other.  Volume was very light.  Still no love for gold and the gold shares.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  If the market doesn't turn around to the upside tomorrow, I think that my SPY trade will be dead.  The market was up 200 points today and couldn't hold on.  My thinking is that we will see a rally if rates get nudged up next week on Wednesday.  However I do not think that will help my call trade if we continue lower into that event.  Obviously I should have exited this trade long ago but that did not fit the scenario I had envisioned.  The summation index is down, prices are heading lower.  But we all know that could change tomorrow as well.  It's anybody's guess what will happen.  We are still oversold on a daily basis for the short term technical indicators.  The foreign markets are in daily downtrends.  We'll close out the week tomorrow.         

Another day to the downside as the Dow fell 75 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index continues lower.  We did see a bounce in the morning but the market could not hold on.  I'll be the first to admit that I simply do not know what is going on here.  When the market doesn't do what's expected, it's a time to be cautious.  Oversold now and with the summation index going down things could get rough.  My SPY December calls are now solidly in the red.  I did consider selling them today but again, the McClellan oscillator is in an area where at least a bounce should occur.  But who knows?  The market will go where it wants.  The overall market was much weaker than the Dow and that is a negative.  GE was up a quarter though on good volume.  I still have the open order for the January calls there.  Gold was off a few bucks on the futures despite the US dollar getting whacked again.  Plenty going on for a usually quiet month.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Perhaps we are getting the selling out of the way before a nice year end rally takes hold.  There may not be enough time left to save my SPY December calls.  The weakness is global so perhaps something underneath the scenes is taking place.  We should take our cues form the summation index though and with that in a downtrend lower prices should be expected.  Whatever idea that I had before on the stock indices moving higher here was wrong.  It also now appears that last Friday was your chance to get out of whatever long positions that you had.  Well, it certainly isn't the first time I've made a mistake.  We'll go on from here and I'll look for the bounce tomorrow.  We'll keep an eye on tonights developments and see what tomorrow brings.

Follow through to the downside as the Dow fell 162 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index continues lower.  The S&P 500 is trying to hold the 200 day moving average.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow and that is a plus.  However with the summation index moving lower at a good pace, a breakdown could occur.  The commodity collapse of the past few days isn't helping the bullish cause.  I continue to hold the SPY December calls and they have moved back into the red.  Only eight days left here.  GE was off 18 cents and the volume was good.  I'm leaving in the open order for the January calls here.  Gold was basically flat on the futures as the US dollar was lower.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on average volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The TRAN got whacked today and that is another negative.  If lower oil prices can't help this sector, then what will?  This price action also doesn't bode well for the overall market.  Maybe we are on the verge of a breakdown and I simply refuse to see it because I own some index calls.  Or perhaps today was the end of the selling with the McClellan oscillator now in an area where we have seen bounces or turnarounds happen.  Tomorrow could be a very important day for where things are going to go from here.  The short term technical indicators remain neither overbought or over sold.  So I suppose you can make a case either way.  The breadth wasn't as negative as a down 162 market would suggest.  The foreign markets have rolled over but are short term oversold already.  Any improvement overseas could help US equities.  Also if oil could stabilize that would be a plus for stocks.  But none of these things have happened yet.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight trading and be ready for whatever happens in the morning.

Negative to start the week as the Dow fell on good volume.  The advance/declines were 4 to 1 negative.  The summation index continues lower.  Sideways would be OK here for a couple of days.  What you don't want to see if you're bullish is a break to lower lows.  The breadth hasn't been bullish lately and that will have to change if we are going to go higher.  The summation index needs to turn around for a more than one day advance as well.  My SPY December calls are still in the black but not by much.  The volatility here will help keep the premiums up but there is still the time decay factor to deal with.  I'm holding on for now.  GE lost 1/8 and the volume was heavy.  I still have the open order in for the January calls here.  I may consider going up to a higher strike price.  The Bollinger bands on the daily chart here are getting very tight.  That implies a pretty good move one way or the other coming soon.  Gold dropped $13 on the futures as the US dollar was higher.  The XAU fell 2 2/3, while GDX dropped 2/3.  Volume was good to the downside.  The fundamentals for gold remain negative.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  No follow through to Fridays big gains and that's a negative.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow and that's not bullish either.  I however am still thinking that a move up to the 2120 level in the S&P 500 will occur before expiration.  We've got nine days to see that happen.  We do not get the Fed announcement until Wednesday of next week.  Things could simply be on hold until then which would not help the case for my SPY December calls.  The technical indicators for the S&P are back to mid-range on a daily basis.  So we'll see how things shape up.  December is seasonally a good time for stocks but that doesn't happen every year.  We'll keep an eye on the foreign markets overnight and see what tomorrow brings.

Whipsawed back to the upside today as the Dow climbed an incredible 370 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  Not exactly good breadth for a market up like that.  Even with todays rise the summation index is still heading lower.  The employment report was in line with estimates.  The short term technical indicators are now turning back up for the major indices.  The volatility has increased dramatically this week.  I don't know what it means.  Like I have said a number of times, the market will go where it wants.  I doubt anyone could have predicted the week we just saw.  Next week should be interesting.  My SPY December calls are back in the black.  GE was up almost 1/2 on good volume.  I still have the open order in for the January calls there but it doesn't look like I'll get filled at the price that I want.  I may consider ending this trade attempt next week.  Gold found buyers despite the good jobs report.  The precious metal futures were up $25 despite a rise in the US dollar.  The XAU gained 2 3/4, while GDX added 3/4.  Volume was more that it has been lately.  I'm not exactly sure what is going on here but I will say that the fundamentals for gold remain negative for now.  I also don't see anything that would change that going forward.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired.  The market volatility makes for more angst than usual.  But it's part of the game.  After todays gains I'd like to say that I'm back believing that we'll see new all time highs in the S&P 500 before years end again.  But we do know that one day does not make a trend.  The breadth was lacking despite the huge move higher to day.  That isn't a good sign.  I wouldn't be surprised if we move sideways next week as well.  But with the turnaround today the odds for higher stock prices have increased going forward.  Perhaps my target of 2120 for the S&P 500 before expiration will come to pass.  We still have 2 weeks to go.  However things can turn on a dime as we have seen today.  The Fed announcement won't be for another week and a half.  There are plenty of variables that we usually don't have here in the month of December.  So there will be a lot to ponder over the weekend.  I'd bee a lot more positive if we could see the summation index start to move back up.  Hasn't happened yet.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

To the downside with some strength today as the Dow fell 252 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 4 to 1 negative.  The summation index is heading lower.  Yellen spoke again and the ECB disappointed traders.  It looks like my scenario of new all time highs before the end of the year will not come to pass.  My SPY December calls are now in the red.  We've got the employment report tomorrow and who knows what that will bring.  I will say that we have gotten oversold in a hurry.  However the uptrend line from October in the S&P 500 has now been broken.  If we get a snap back to that line in the next couple of days I should be able to get rid of my calls.  If not, they'll be losers.  So we'll see.  GE was up a few cents and the volume was heavy.  I still have the open order in for the January calls here.  Gold was up $8 on the futures as the US dollar got absolutely crushed.  The dollar drop had more to do with the ECB than anything from the Fed in my opinion.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains.  Gold outperformed the gold shares and that usually isn't bullish.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  With two solid days lower, it's hard to imagine that tomorrow will bring any good news for the bulls.  But you never know.  The turning back down of the summation index is not a good sign for holding index calls.  It looks like I've mismanaged another trade into a loser but there is still a little over a couple of weeks to go.  However unless we see some decent upside tomorrow, I'd say another losing trade is a done deal.  I'm still positive on GE despite the negative market back drop.  As I said before, a lot of money poured into that stock and that is impressive.  Money equals interest which shows up in volume.  The volume for GE has been off the charts for a month.  So I'll remain bullish on that issue.  The foreign markets were a bit weaker overnight.  However after todays drubbing in the US, I'd expect some negative action to take place around the world.  We'll keep an eye on things and await the employment report in the morning.

Back to the downside today as the Dow fell 158 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative.  Yellen spoke today and the market didn't like what it heard.  We also got the beige book minutes.  Whatever positive that we got with yesterdays price action was negated by todays move.  I may have to rethink what I'm doing here.  The summation index is moving up but looks like it could turn around.  The short term technical indicators are rolling over.  My prognosis of higher prices is now in doubt.  The SPY December calls that I have are still showing a profit but they lost a lot of ground today.  GE lost 20 cents on what now passes as average volume.  I am leaving in the order for the January calls here.  This too could be a mistake if we do roll over here with the regards to the overall market.  Perhaps canceling this trade and dumping the SPY calls before further damage is done is the right move here.  Gold lost $11 on the futures and the US dollar was a bit higher.  The XAU dropped 1 1/3 and GDX fell 1/3.  Volume was average.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The TRAN turned around today as well and perhaps it and GE is telling us that the rally is over.  The TRAN broke its uptrend line from the summer today.  Other major indices have not.  I still may wait to see what happens if the S&P 500 gets to the 200 day moving average and uptrend line at 2065.  Of course there's the chance that by then it may be too late.  So there will be a lot to think about overnight.  If we get some downside follow through tomorrow, the case for the rally being over is strengthened.  If not, then it's a toss up going into the employment report.  Technically, we're more overbought than oversold.  I was pretty confident in my appraisal of things before today.  But you've got to be able to listen to the market and hear what it is telling you.  So the price action tomorrow will be pretty important.  We'll see if the foreign markets follow the Dow lower and take it from there.

Back to the upside to begin the month of December as the Dow gained 168 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index continues higher.  Todays economic data was mixed.  The short term technical indicators for the major indices are overbought but they could stay that way.  My SPY December calls remain in the black.  I still think that we will see 2120 on the S&P 500 soon and perhaps by the end of the week.  I will consider selling this position if we get there.  GE was up 1/4 on good volume.  GE was lower during the session and I did place an order for the January calls here but the order wasn't filled.  It looks like I could have missed this trade but I am leaving the order open in case GE heads back down again.  Gold was up $3 on the futures as the US dollar was lower today.  The XAU gained 1 1/2 and GDX rose 3/8.  Volume was nothing special.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The market is heading higher as anticipated for now.  There is a bullish belt hold pattern on the daily Dow candlestick chart.  The TRAN turned around today as well.  We are overbought but can stay that way during up trends.  I believe that is the case at this point in time.  But there is plenty of news to come later this week.  I'm still looking for new all time highs in the S&P 500 before the years end.  One of the indicators for GE today was solidly in the buy zone.  That is why I put in the order for the January calls.  I may have gotten too cute with the pricing though.  What I mean is instead of buying the calls at what was offered, I was looking for a cheaper price.  Hopefully GE will pull back again because the money has really come into this issue over the past month.  There is no better sign of strength than that.  The overseas markets were generally positive with the exceptions of France and Germany.  Perhaps things will be on hold until the ECB announcement on Thursday.  That's my guess for now.  We'll see what tomorrow brings. 

A one day reversal to the downside to begin the week as we started off briefly to the upside and then turned around and finished with a loss of 78 points.  The advance/declines were negative and the volume was pretty good to end the month of November.  The economic data out today was a bit weaker than expected.  The summation index is still moving up.  I don't think that today is the beginning of some type of extended down trend.  I do believe that things will turn around and we'll close out the week higher.  But I could be wrong.  On the S&P 500 daily chart it still looks like a sideways congestion to me.  GE was off 3/8 and the volume was heavy.  Perhaps GE is telling us to expect lower prices in the near term.  The short term technical indicators here have rolled over.  I'm looking at the January calls here but will probably wait for some more downside.  Gold was up $9 on the futures and the US dollar was a bit higher.  The XAU was up 1 1/4, while GDX rose 1/3.  Volume was light.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, not exactly feeling 100%.  Weakness to start the week in the major stock indices.  The TRAN once again had a bad day and that's a negative.  Most of the major averages are in short term overbought territory.  Perhaps my take on things is wrong but I expect a bullish outcome going forward.  To me the worst case scenario would be for the S&P 500 to make it back to its uptrend line at 2065.  That is also the level of the 200 day moving average.  But my own work points to strength by the end of the week.  We've got the ECB and Yellen speaking on Thursday.  Friday brings the employment report.  So I will at least hold onto my SPY December calls until then.  They are still in the black but lost some ground today.  Perhaps we'll see some beginning of the month money flows into stocks tomorrow.  We'll watch the foreign markets tonight as usual. 

Quiet trading in a shortened session as the Dow lost 15 points on extremely light volume.  The advance/declines were positive and the summation index is moving higher.  My SPY December calls are still in the black.  GE was flat on the day and the volume was light.  Gold fell $14 on the futures and the US dollar was higher.  The XAU lost a point and GDX fell 1/4.  Volume was light.  No love for gold remains the story here.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We've been trending sideways for over a week in the major averages.  We are also more overbought than oversold on the technical indicators.  Some decline early next week would not be a surprise.  I'm still a believer in higher prices before the December expiration.  At least 2120 on the S&P 500 in my opinion.  So we'll see.  It's late on a Friday during the holiday weekend.  A break before the open on Monday is in order.

Pre-holiday trading was expected as the Dow was up a point on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is moving higher.  Not much movement and nothing to really report.  Expect the same on Friday unless there is another terrorist attack.  GE was off 1/3 and the volume was lighter than it has been.  Gold fell a few bucks on the futures as the US dollar was a bit higher.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on very light volume.  With all the world turmoil it certainly isn't bullish to see gold languish.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The game plan remains to hold on to the SPY December calls until we get to an overbought reading on multiple indicators.  This could happen next week or we could simply roll over as well.  The major stock indexes are closer to overbought than to oversold at the moment.  With the exception of the TRAN which is weaker right now.  That isn't a positive sign.  Sideways on the S&P 500 would be acceptable in the near term.  For now let's enjoy the Thanksgiving holiday and long weekend.

A one day reversal to the upside as the Dow opened lower and finished higher.  The most watched index ended the session with a gain of 19 points on good volume.  We were off over 100 points early on.  I don't know the cause of todays volatility and certainly did not expect it.  The summation index is trying to move higher but has not picked up any steam.  I really think it will be slow for the rest of the week, with a day off for Thanksgiving and a shortened Friday trading day.  GE was up a few cents and the volume remains very heavy.  Plenty of interest here.  Gold was up a buck or so on the futures as the US dollar was lower.  The XAU was up 1 3/4, while GDX gained 1/2.  Volume was average.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired as my usual schedule was thrown off today due to early meetings.  I'm still in the bullish camp here and sideways wouldn't be a bad thing as well.  I expect that we will move higher in the beginning of December.  The short term technicals for the major indices tired to roll over today but turned back around.  Perhaps we'll see some holiday light volume rise in the next couple of days.  That's a guess as usual.  Not much else to report.  The foreign markets were mixed last night with most of Europe lower.  We'll see what happens tonight.

Some selling to start off the holiday week as the Dow fell 31 points on OK volume.  The advance/declines were barely positive.  Starting to work off the short term overbought condition is my interpretation of todays trading.  The summation index is trying to turn back up.  It really should be a lackluster week in the market and today exemplifies that.  GE lost a few cents and the volume remains extremely heavy.  Waiting to get some calls here.  Gold was off $8 on the futures as the US dollar was a bit higher.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on very light volume.  I don't expect much this week for the precious metals either.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  This should be a week to take a breather.  Not much should happen in the markets and it would be a surprise if something did.  My SPY December calls lost some of the profit today and that is to be expected near term as we pull back a bit.  I'd still like to hold this trade until the beginning of December at least.  Some of the medium term indicators are not close to the overbought level.  When most of them get there, it will then be time to end this trade.  Patience for now with this one.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight action or lack of it and see what happens tomorrow.

Higher again to close out the week as the Dow gained 91 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is still trying to turn around.  Getting short term overbought by some indications.  It was a good week for the bulls.  Next week should be lightly traded with the Thanksgiving holiday looming.  It turns out that if I would have held on to the SPY November calls I actually could have sold them today for a small profit.  Of course it doesn't matter after they have already been sold.  I probably should have held them a bit longer but the risk increases as the expiration draws nearer.  In general the short term trades are not my strength.  The SPY December calls that I have are still in the black.  GE continues to shine as it gained over 1/3 on very heavy volume.  Money has really come into this stock over the past month.  I'm still looking for it to get oversold at some point and that would be the time to buy some calls.  Gold was off a bit on the futures today as the US dollar reversed yesterdays losses.  The XAU fell 1 3/4, while GDX dropped 1/2.  Volume was light.  No trades here for now.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It was good to see the market come back this week despite the turmoil around the world.  I'm still a believer in higher prices going forward.  We are close to new all time highs in the S&P 500, as a repeat of this week would get us there.  Not that I think that will happen.  Another plus in my mind is the fact that the McClellan oscillator isn't in positive territory yet.  If and when that occurs will be leading us to higher prices.  The strength in GE is another plus if it is a precursor for the overall market as it often is.  Some of the weekly technical indicators for the major stock indices are getting overbought.  However they could stay that way as often happens in up trends.  But as always the market will go where it wants.  I'll be checking the charts over the weekend but the game plan is to hold onto the SPY December calls for a few weeks.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

A day of just hanging around as the Dow 4 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were barely positive.  The summation index is still heading lower but it looks like it is trying to turn around.  Todays economic data was in line with most estimates.  We've got expiration tomorrow and then a holiday week coming up.  The major index technical indicators are mid-range.  I'm still holding the SPY December calls and they still show a profit.  GE was off about 1/4 and the volume is heavy but not what it's been.  I'd like to get the January calls here at some point.  Gold was up $12 on the futures as the US dollar was off over 1/2 a point.  The XAU rose a point and GDX gained 1/2.  Volume was pretty light though.  I really don't see an big rally for gold here, given the fundamental back drop.  Low volume means not interest in my book.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We will close out the week tomorrow and it has been a good one for the bulls.  Considering the drop in the previous week, we've made quite a comeback so far.  I think it bodes well going forward unless there's a huge drop tomorrow.  Next week should be slow with option premium erosion the main catalyst.  After that it will still be a Fed waiting game for the meeting in December.  The short term technical indicators still have room to head higher.  For the medium term, the weekly candlestick chart for the S&P 500 should have a bullish look to it depending on tomorrow.  I still think that the S&P 500 will reach new all time highs before the end of the year.  Preferably before the December expiration.  Most of the foreign stock markets were higher last night and that is a positive as well.  We'll watch expiration Friday tomorrow and see what happens.

Quite a ride to the upside today as the Dow gained 247 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive.  Todays action could get the summation index to stop going down.  The Fed minutes were viewed as positive.  I'm back to thinking that we will set new all time highs before the end of the year.  My SPY December calls are solidly in the black.  Of course if I would have held onto the SPY November calls instead of selling them yesterday, I could have cut the loss there even more.  But I did not want to risk the whole trade getting wiped out.  My entry timing was off there as well.  Looking back, buying index calls on the weakness early Monday morning would have worked out rather well.  We aren't short term overbought yet and have just broken through the near term downtrend line in the S&P 500.  GE was up over 1/8 but the volume pulled back.  The volume is still very heavy just not the extreme levels we have seen in the past few days.  Gold didn't do much in the futures market today and neither did the US dollar.  The XAU rose 1 7/8, while GDX was up 3/8.  Volume was light.  Most likely just following the overall market higher for the precious metals today.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We are strongly coming off of the recent oversold reading for the major stock indices.  I'm viewing that as a positive.  I'll probably hold onto the SPY December call trade for a while.  Plenty of time to go here.  However that doesn't mean that the market will be going straight up as it did off of the late September lows.  2 days left before we hit a holiday week.  Perhaps things will continue to run up into Fridays close but I am not completely certain of that.  The VIX did reach the 20 level and has now turned back down.  That should be a positive for the bulls.  The technical indicators on the major indexes have turned back to the upside and still have room to run.  So things are looking good for the call side at the moment.  We'll keep an eye on the overseas markets tonight as usual.

Almost a one day reversal to the downside but not quite.  The Dow added 6 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The S&P 500 was lower.  The summation index continues lower.  We were up over 100 points today during the session.  I did dump the SPY November calls this morning for a loss of 70%.  The timing on that trade was off from the start.  I'm still holding the SPY December call trade.  Perhaps we'll form a bottom in the stock indices this week.  However with the summation index still moving lower, anything is possible.  I do remain bullish for the next few weeks though, unless we take out the recent lows.  GE was off 4 cents and the volume was the heaviest yet.  And I mean extremely, out of this world volume.  I have no idea what is happening here with GE because I've never seen any volume like this.  I still want the January calls.  Volume means interest and the price has stayed up.  Gold broke the key level of $1180 today as the futures were off $15.  The US dollar was higher.  The XAU lost 2 1/2 and GDX shed 2/3.  Volume was good.  It looks like we're going lower now for gold.  The next stop is probably $1000.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Another losing trade in the books with the closing of the SPY November call position.  I should have managed it better but at least I waited for the bounce to get out.  Still, it was a loser and doesn't matter now.  Tomorrow we should get some movement on the release of the Fed minutes.  I also expect that the major players will be taking care of business before the Thanksgiving week.  The technical indicators are still in the oversold zone.  We'll see if things hold up here or whether this was a pause in the downtrend and an opportunity to get short.  We'll know the answers soon enough.  The foreign stock markets rallied overnight to follow yesterdays US action.  We'll watch how it goes tonight.  

A bounce was due and perhaps overdue but we got it.  The Dow soared 237 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 positive.  Despite the attacks in Paris, the market moved higher.  Technically, it almost had to.  You cannot deny the indicators but the timing is always tricky.  The summation index is still moving lower though and todays breadth was nothing special.  Where do we go from here is the next question.  My SPY November calls are still solidly in the red and I should probably sell them on any strength tomorrow for whatever I can get.  The SPY December calls that I purchased are showing a gain.  GE continues to refuse to go lower as it was up a bit again today on the extremely heavy volume that it has been showing lately.  I'd still like to get the January calls if I ever get the chance.  Gold was up overnight but came back down during the day.  The futures finished flat on the session as the US dollar was higher.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on very light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It is expiration week and perhaps the positive bias will show up for the next 4 days as well.  There is a bullish engulfing pattern on the daily S&P 500 candlestick chart which could turn out to be a positive.  But with so little time left on the November options, I am probably better off to take the loss there and hold on to the December SPY calls.  The short term technical indicators have turned higher for now.  Of course that could all change tomorrow.  I was looking to get some OEX November calls this morning if we got a drop but not much materialized there despite a decent drop in the index futures overnight.  We'll have to see if the market can follow through to the upside tomorrow.  We do have some economic data due out this week and the Fed minutes out on Wednesday.  So we'll see what happens as I think most of the trading for the month will be done this week due to the Thanksgiving holiday next week.  We'll see if the overseas markets can move up overnight to follow the US and see how the open goes tomorrow.

Oversold and staying there as the Dow lost 203 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were negative but not as much as a down 200 market would suggest.  The economic data today came in a little light.  The summation index continues lower.  We should have seen a bounce today with the oversold technical indicators and the recent McClellan oscillator reading.  But we didn't.  This is the point where I have to say to myself that I just don't know what is going on.  I would say perhaps that we could crash on Monday but we are nowhere near the technical zone for that to happen.  So I'll just say the market is going where it wants despite the technical readings.  My SPY November calls are big losers but there isn't a lot of money involved.  I still believe that we are at the point where a decent upside move is imminent.  Monday or Tuesday will be the time to book the loss on that trade.  I am still a believer in higher prices and so today I did purchase some SPY December calls.  That trade is showing a small loss.  GE continues to baffle the mind and was up a dime on extremely heavy volume.  Traders want GE at any cost or so it seems.  Perhaps I should have just paid attention here.  Gold finished the session flat as the US dollar was higher.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on very light volume.  No interest here and that is the same old story as of late.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit confused as the market indicators have reached levels that would suggest some upside but we just keep going lower.  That's really never a good sign.  There's a chance that maybe I should just sell out of the calls that I have and head for the sidelines.  It will be something to ponder.  My interpretation of the indicators seems to be off right now.  But I have to say that the readings are very bullish in the short term and they get even more bullish as we drop.  I do not think that things will fall apart here but who knows?  The action this week was very negative in a technical sense.  We'll have to see if it continues next week.  Option expiration week is upon us but after today it doesn't appear that there will be a bullish bias in place.  But we'll have to wait and see how it plays out.  I still have to believe that there will be some pretty good upside in the beginning of the week.  I could be wrong.  A lot to think about over this weekend.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

It was quite a day to the downside as the Dow dropped 254 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were just north of 4 to 1 negative.  The summation index is heading lower.  I had a feeling yesterday that I had made a mistake with this SPY November call trade and today verified that.  Not sure what to make of the move but we did practically close on the low and that's bearish.  No doubt short term oversold here and the McClellan oscillator is at a level where bounces have come.  But a bounce may be all we get and it may not come until next week.  The SPY trade is solidly in the red and has become a cut the loss situation.  GE was off 1/2 on the heaviest volume we've seen yet.  The volume for this issue in the past month or so has been off the charts.  I still would like to get the January calls here.  Perhaps I'll get the chance in the days ahead.  Gold was up just a few bucks on the futures as the US dollar was lower today.  Still no real interest in the precious metals.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The data tomorrow should provide the backdrop to whatever happens early.  It looks like things are simply going to continue lower.  Expiration week is coming and it usually has a positive bias.  Things are oversold here but that doesn't mean that they can't stay that way.  Perhaps we are back to the deflation fear again with the drop in commodities.  I'm not sure so I try and stick to the technicals.  With the summation index going lower with some purpose now, it might be time to be careful.  That doesn't help me when I'm already holding index calls.  I guess tomorrows price action will say a lot in whether I hold onto this trade over the weekend.  However it is clear that my timing was wrong and this will probably be a losing effort.  I would not be surprised to see the foreign markets roll over tonight.  We'll check out the data in the morning and see where the market goes.

To the downside today as the Dow fell 56 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is heading lower.  It was a back and forth session that had more volume than I would have thought.  My SPY November calls are now in the red.  Perhaps I am wrong in my thinking on this trade.  The short term technical indicators have turned down and they are not yet oversold.  I may have entered this trade too early or my diagnosis of the market here is just wrong.  Time will tell on this but I think Friday will be the key.  GE continues to rise and continues to impress.  It was up 1/2 on the same extremely heavy volume.  It is tough to get the calls here when there is never a pullback.  It appears to be another missed trade.  Gold was off a few bucks on the futures today, while the US dollar was weaker as well.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on very light volume.  Short term oversold for the gold shares.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Only seven days left in the November option cycle.  For some reason I am not feeling as positive about this SPY call trade as I was just yesterday.  But today was a semi-holiday and perhaps tomorrow will bring a bit more clarity as to what is going on here.  However with the summation index heading lower, the trend is for lower prices.  I get the feeling that I simply made a mistake.  We'll see how it plays out in the coming days.  The data on Friday remain the main short term driving factor in my opinion.  As always we'll keep an eye on the foreign markets and other overnight developments.

A slight one day reversal as the market opened lower and closed higher.  The Dow gained 27 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  It was a mostly sideways kind of session.  The summation index is still heading lower.  I was able to pick up some SPY November calls on weakness in the morning.  They are showing a slight gain.  The ideal plan is to hold onto them into the middle of expiration week.  But we will have to see what the market has to say about that.  The small stocks have been relatively weaker here and that is not a positive.  GE was up over 1/3 and the volume was really extremely heavy.  This issue has remained overbought for an extended length of time.  I do not know what is happening here but you cannot argue with price and volume.  I'd still like to get the January calls here if I ever get the chance.  Gold was flat on the futures as the US dollar was a bit higher today.  The XAU fell 1 1/3, while GDX shed 1/3.  Volume was nothing special.  I have no trades in the works for the gold shares at this time.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I'm in the next trade now and expecting upside from here.  My hope is that we get back to the recent highs and perhaps exceed them.  But the market will go where it wants.  The short term indicators have rolled over but there is a chance that they will turn back up here.  I did get a buy signal form one of my short term indicators and I'm a believer that it will work.  So we'll see.  The overseas market had a little more downside than upside overnight.  Tomorrow is a partial holiday for Veterans Day as some players will have the day off.  I would not expect a lot of movement in the stock market but there is a chance things could get skewed as well.  Fridays data should provide the reason for the market to move.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments and go from there.

A downside start to the week as the Dow fell 179 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 4 to 1 negative.  The summation index is now heading lower.  I do not think that this is the beginning of anything major to the downside.  I do think it is an opportunity to purchase some SPY November calls on weakness tomorrow.  We did come off of the lows today but the short term technical indicators have rolled over.  If we are lower tomorrow, one of my timing indicators will be giving a buy signal.  The 200 day moving average comes in at 2063 for the S&P 500.  That would be a good spot to buy the November calls.  That is what I'll be trying to do tomorrow.  GE was off a little over 1/8 on extremely heavy volume.  There is still plenty of interest in owning GE here.  I think that bodes well going forward for the overall market.  I could be wrong.  Gold was up a bit on the futures as the US dollar was a bit lower today.  The XAU was up a point and GDX gained 1/3.  Volume was average.  It would be helpful for the bulls if the gold shares hold their most recent lows of August and September.  We'll see.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, could have slept better.  It will be interesting to see if we get any follow through downside tomorrow.  We do have a plan and hopefully the market will cooperate.  Not much economic data this week until Friday.  Europe was weak yesterday so we will see what Asia does overnight.  So there you have it.  We'll see if the overseas markets follow the Dow lower tonight and see what happens tomorrow. 

The employment data came in stronger than expected and the market sold off early.  However we made it all the way back and then some as the Dow gained 46 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The small stocks had good relative strength.  The market remains overbought.  I'd still like to get some SPY November calls but now I'll have to wait until Tuesday to see how things play out.  If we get some weakness early next week, I will give this trade a try.  We will not stay overbought forever but it sure seems that way at this point.  GE was up 1/4 and the volume remains extremely heavy.  With GE keeping up its gains, I have to think that will be the case for the overall market.  I could be wrong.  Gold broke through the $1100 level today and the futures lost $16.  The US dollar had a strong rally of over a point on the employment data.  The XAU lost 2 1/2, while GDX shed almost 2/3.  Volume was good.  It has been a rough week for the gold bulls.  The fundamentals remain negative for gold.  I suppose buys the puts was the proper play here but it's probably too late for that now.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The market just doesn't sell off regardless of the data or intraday action.  I do not know why.  The volume has been pretty impressive as well.  You cannot fight that.  I really think that we will get some kind of run to new highs in the S&P 500 before the November expiration.  That is my guess right now.  Weakness on Monday and Tuesday would be the ideal set up.  However the market will go where it wants.  I also thank that GE is a precursor here and that bodes well for the bullish case going forward.  I don't know what is keeping things so bullish now but obviously liquidity is not an issue.  Money needs a home and US stocks have out the welcome mat.  This, despite the fact that it appears December will see the first rate hike in years.  This is how I see things at the moment but that could change at any time.  I'll be checking the charts over the weekend to see if I can come up with something other than that.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

A little more selling today as the Dow fell 4 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were barely negative.  Just waiting on tomorrows employment data.  I don't know how that will play out but I am still considering the SPY November calls on weakness.  The ideal scenario would be a drop tomorrow with follow through on Monday.  Monday would be the purchase time.  But we all know that ideal scenarios rarely pan out.  I'll continue to watch and wait.  GE was up a dime and the volume was extremely heavy.  The stock simply remains overbought.  If we ever get some pullback, the January calls here are on my radar.  Gold was off a few bucks on the futures as the selling continues.  The US dollar was slightly higher before the jobs numbers.  The XAU dropped 2 1/4, while GDX fell 1/2.  Volume picked up to the downside.  I still think that on a long term basis the gold shares are attractive at these levels.  But you have to have a time horizon that will last a couple of years or more.  As far as a trade here, I don't have any in mind.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  So we'll see what the market reaction is tomorrow and go from there.  It should be a triple digit day for the Dow one way or the other.  There's still a couple of weeks to go in the November option cycle.  My guess is that there will be some decent movement prior to expiration because things will really slow down going into Thanksgiving week.  So there is still a chance to make some money this month.  The foreign markets were mixed overnight.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Just a bit of weakness today as the Dow fell 50 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  Looking for an entry point for the SPY November calls.  Perhaps if we sell off on the employment report.  But as always, the market will go where it wants.  I've been waiting for the technical indicators to reach oversold and that hasn't happened.  No need to be in a hurry here but I'd like to try something in the November option cycle.  GE was off a nickel and the volume was very heavy.  The volume on GE has expanded a lot over the past month.  Heavy volume with rising prices is bullish.  You could say the same for the overall market as well.  Gold continues to drop as the futures fell another $8.  The US dollar had a strong session.  Perhaps gold is letting us know that the employment report will be above consensus.  Or maybe that the Fed will finally move rates a touch higher.  The drop in gold could also mean nothing at all.  Such is the nature of the game.  The XAU fell 1 1/3, while GDX was off 1/3.  Volume was nothing special.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I suppose at this point I'm ready to let the employment report pass as well before considering the next trade.  I'm still bullish on the overall market but we will not stay overbought forever.  Even if it seems that way at the moment.  Patience isn't easy but it is far better than losing money.  The foreign markets were generally higher yesterday.  I would think that tomorrows trading would be light with a wait and see attitude.  We'll see what happens.

It's a market that just won't stop or so it seems.  The Dow gained 89 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is moving up.  I don't know how many times over the past few weeks that I've said overbought and staying there but that condition persists.  I'm still hoping to get some SPY November calls before expiration.  However we could continue to just move up in what is basically a straight line.  Some of the major stock indices are approaching all time highs again, while others are not.  I'm not sure what to make of that.  GE was up about 20 cents on very heavy volume.  There's a possible negative daily RSI divergence here.  We'll see how it plays out.  Gold was sold again today.  The futures fell 18 bucks as the US dollar was higher.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on very light volume.  No buying interest in the precious metals group.  No trades in mind here for me either.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Perhaps we'll see some profit taking ahead of Fridays employment report.  That may provide an opportunity to get the calls.  But we'll see.  The preferred scenario would be an oversold technical reading on a daily basis.  We can hope for that at least but we'll see how things transpire in the coming days.  There's no reason to try and make something happen.  I'll wait for a set up.  The foreign markets were mixed last night.  We'll keep an eye on them tonight.

The rally continues as the Dow rose 165 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive.  This should turn the summation index back to the upside.  Beginning of the month money flows helped I'm sure.  The S&P 500 is cutting through the overhead resistance as if it isn't there.  Overbought and staying that way for an extended time period.  In retrospect, I should have just gotten some SPY calls weeks ago and held on.  GE came back today as well, gaining 1/2 on heavy volume.  I'm still looking to go out to the January options here.  Gold was off $8 on the futures but the US dollar didn't do much today.  The gold shares were up slightly as the market rally probably helped things out here.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Still no pullback to speak of in the stock indices.  It might be too late just to get long here.  I really would like to wait for a better technical set up before doing anything.  So patience will still be the game plan.  I do not want to put on a trade just for the sake of doing it.  I'd like to get something going but I'd like to make money first and foremost.  The employment report on Friday should provide the fireworks for the week.  We'll watch and see if the foreign markets follow the US higher overnight.

Some selling to finish off trading in the month of October as the Dow lost 93 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were positive though.  We're still overbought for the major stock indices.  If we see some decline next week, I'll probably try the SPY November calls.  However the market just seems to want to go higher despite the noise around it.  The summation index is moving sideways.  GE was down 3/8 on good volume.  If GE is a precursor for the overall market again, then maybe we'll get the decline needed to set up the SPY call trade.  I'm also now looking to go out to the January GE calls as well.  Gold continued lower as the futures fell $5.  The US dollar was lower as well.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume.  It was a rough week for the precious metal complex.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Another week to the upside for the major stock indexes but the gain was small.  Plenty of data out next week with Fridays employment report the key element.  I don't know what to expect there.  There should be some beginning of the month money flows coming early in the week.  The game plan for me remains the same.  If we get oversold, then purchase the SPY November calls.  Otherwise it continues to be a waiting game for me.  I'll be checking the charts out over the weekend as usual.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

Another day of hanging around as the Dow fell 23 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index has begun to trend sideways.  GDP came in lighter than last time but really wasn't a market mover.  We are still simply moving higher for the overall trend.  Like a broken record, the market continues to be short term overbought.  I'm still going to have to wait for a pullback from overbought before I attempt the long side.  I do not think that trying to buy puts is a viable strategy here.  I could be wrong.  GE was off a nickel and the volume was lighter.  I still have the November calls on my radar here but must keep in mind that most of the gain here has already been made.  Gold fell another $15 today as the hawkish Fed tone gets priced in around the world.  The US dollar was lower.  The XAU lost 1 7/8, while GDX fell 3/4.  Volume was good to the downside.  ABX did have a slight gain on the earnings report but was well off of the highs for the session.  I have no trades in mind here for the gold shares.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Watching and waiting is all I can do here as the market continues higher.  Hopefully my patience will be rewarded eventually.  There is still a lot of time in the November option cycle.  I also still think that new highs in the S&P 500 will occur prior to the end of the year.  That is my forward scenario for stocks.  Gold remains uninteresting to many and I do not know when that will change.  The fundamentals for gold are still negative in my opinion.  Long term, the gold shares look very cheap at these levels but you have to have an extended holding time to make it work.  The foreign markets did not follow the US higher last night.  We'll have to keep an eye on that and see if it means anything going forward.

The market roared back to the upside as the Dow gained 198 points on very heavy volume.  The advance/declines were over 3 to 1 positive.  We opened higher and then came all the way back to unchanged after the Fed statement.  But then things turned around again for an almost 200 point gain in the last 2 hours.  Still overbought and it doesn't look like I will get a chance to get in the upside game.  We simply remain with the technical indicators near the top of their ranges.  Plenty of overhead resistance here for the S&P 500 but I don't think it's going to matter.  GE was off a few cents but the volume continues to be very heavy.  I'm going to try and not chase it here.  Gold rallied early but fell after the Fed.  Unlike the overall market, gold did not come back.  The futures were off $10 as the US dollar rallied.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on good volume.  No trades for the gold shares here.  ABX earnings are out tonight for those still interested there.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit frustrated as I haven't gotten any calls as the market remains overbought for an extended time.  I'll say again that we are heading to new all time highs for the S&P 500.  There is also no resistance once we get above there.  I don't want to buy some SPY calls just for the sake of having them but perhaps just getting long is the answer.  The 3rd quarter GDP is out tomorrow and that should provide the next catalyst for the market.  There's still plenty of time in the November option cycle to do something but the best time to get long has passed.  We'll see how the foreign markets react to the US rally in trading tonight. 

Another day of just hanging around as the Dow fell 41 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 negative.  The small stocks still show better relative strength here but the overall market breadth was weak.  Just waiting on the Fed tomorrow.  I'm still looking at the SPY November calls as I expect positive outcomes going forward.  The best case scenario would be to reach some type of oversold reading on a daily basis.  We are not near that yet.  GE fell 9 cents and the volume remains rather heavy.  We have been overbought here for 3 weeks so some type of decline is overdue in my opinion.  Gold was flat on the futures as the US dollar was a bit higher.  The XAU along with the GDX were flat on very light volume.  We're still just moving sideways here.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We'll get the Fed out of the way tomorrow.  The market reaction, as always, will be more important than what is said.  I don't think that there will be a big reaction unless there is some surprise.  But that's a guess as usual.  I'm still in the patient camp for now, waiting on a decent signal.  Todays market action could turn the summation index back down.  However even if that were to occur, I don't think that an extended decline is on the horizon.  We'll watch the foreign markets tonight and see what the Fed has to say on Wednesday.

A meandering Monday as the Dow fell 23 points on light to average volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index continues to the upside.  Plenty of economic data out this week plus the Fed.  We're still overbought for the main stock indices.  I'm still considering the SPY November calls if we get to oversold.  Until then it's wait and see time period for me.  GE was up a few cents ands volume was lighter than it's been.  Gold was basically flat on the session while the US dollar lost some ground.  The XAU fell 1 3/4 and GDX was off 1/2.  Volume was average.  I'm not sure where gold is going here.  The US dollar has rallied recently and gold has only moved sideways.  That can be seen as a plus.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I'd expect tomorrow to be more of the same as we await the Fed.  I don't expect any changes out of Yellen and company.  Of course the statement from the Fed will be put under a microscope and we'll trade off of that.  Thursdays GDP number will probably be more important.  I'm going to have to stay on the sidelines until we get a decent technical signal.  Still a lot of time in the November option cycle.  So we'll sit and be patient.  We'll see what transpires overseas tonight and take it from there.

Powering higher as the Dow gained another 157 points today on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index continues higher.  The overhead resistance appears to not be a problem.  The small stocks out performed and that is bullish.  Overbought, staying there and it doesn't seem like there is anything out there to derail this rally.  New all time highs are coming, it's just a matter of when.  I really need to get some SPY November calls because this market looks like it is going to go straight up.  The double bottom measuring objective for the S&P 500 is 2120.  GE was off a few cents but the volume remains very heavy here.  Gold was off a few bucks on the futures as the US dollar continues to rally.  The gold shares went up as the XAU gained 1 3/8, while GDX rose 3/8.  Volume was average.  I'm not sure why the gold shares rose with a much stronger US dollar for the past 2 days.  Probably just tagging along with the overall market.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Well I wanted to let this week pass and now it looks like I should have done something.  Hindsight is never wrong.  However there wasn't a decent technical signal to trade off of.  So you've got to let it go and move on from here.  Perhaps we'll see something out of the Fed next week to get things going again.  I do think that the beginning of the week will be a wait and see affair.  The earnings keep plugging along.  This is a game played by companies and wall street 4 times a year.  As usual the numbers don't mean anything but the stocks and markets reaction to them are the key.  It looks like all systems are go for higher overall prices in the weeks to come.  I'll be checking the charts over the weekend as usual to try and come up with something for next week.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

It was a strong move higher today as the Dow roared ahead by 320 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were about 3 to 1 positive.  The summation index continues to the upside.  Overbought and staying there for the major stock indices.  We are breaking above the downtrend lines set over the summer today in some of the major indexes.  All signs point to higher prices going forward.  We are into the overhead resistance right now for the S&P 500.  But it appears that all systems are go.  Easy money talk out of Europe fueled the bullish fun today.  GE was up 3/4 on heavy volume once again.  If GE is a precursor for the overall market, we will be seeing new all time highs in the Dow and the S&P 500 before the end of the year.  I do believe that will be the case.  I certainly don't know the reasons why but we have to follow price and volume.  Gold barely moved today despite a rise of over a point in the US dollar.  Interesting to say the least.  The XAU rose 1 1/4 and GDX added 1/3.  Volume was very light here.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  How can we find the next trade when the market just continues to remain overbought?  Plenty of time in the November option cycle and we will find a signal to trade eventually.  However we could remain overbought for quite a while as it appears that the market wants to simply go straight up.  There is nothing you can do about that.  So we will wait.  This is an easy money market but when that changes all I can say is look out.  However it doesn't appear that there will be anything in the way of higher equity prices in the near term.  I would expect some hesitation here though because the overhead resistance is pretty long in time.  Plus players should be moving to the sidelines ahead of the Fed next week.  Also the small stocks haven't approached their resistance yet although the QQQ is doing much better than the rest.  We'll look for upside in the foreign arena overnight and close out the week tomorrow.

An up and down session that ended with a decline as the Dow fell 48 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were over 2 to 1 negative.  Perhaps we will relieve the overbought technical condition in the coming days.  The summation index is still moving up.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow with the small stocks once again leading the way lower.  No hurry to trade here as I continue to favor getting some SPY November calls if we get oversold.  GE was up a few cents as the volume remains above average.  I'll consider some calls here if we get back to $28.  Gold was off over $10 on the futures as the US dollar was a bit higher.  The XAU fell 2 points, while GDX shed 1/2.  Volume was lighter.  I do not have any trades in mind here at the moment.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The plan for now is to let this week pass and we'll go from there.  We've got the Fed next week and that usually provides some excitement.  Earnings are the driver for now.  Although the Dow has broken through the down trend line on the daily charts, the other major indices have not.  This is a line that has been in effect since the summer.  It usually isn't bullish to have the Dow leading the way.  It's better to have the broader averages in front from a bullish point of view.  So we'll see where this leads us.  The overseas markets were mixed overnight.  We'll watch for some downside follow through in tomorrows trading session.

The opposite of yesterday today as the Dow fell 13 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The small stocks were relatively weaker today.  The summation index continues higher.  Things here have the feel of trying to make up its mind in my view.  There's no hurry to put on any trade here.  Still overbought on the short term indicators.  Watch and wait is my strategy at the moment.  GE was off almost 1/4 and the volume is still very heavy.  I'm waiting for more of a pull back here.  Gold was back up a few bucks today.  The US dollar finished the session almost flat.  The XAU was back up 2 points, while GDX rose 2/3.  Volume was good here.  Maybe the up trend in the gold shares isn't over yet.  Time will tell on that.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Patience is key here as the signal is for a decline but I do not think that it is worth the risk.  High option premiums along with plenty of time in the November cycle has me on the sidelines for now.  My ideal scenario would be a decline to an oversold reading and then the purchase of some SPY calls.  The market rarely accommodates you.  It appears that the foreign markets are in the same going nowhere mode at the moment.  You cannot force the issue.  It is a time to keep an eye on things and get ready for the next opportunity.  We'll follow the overnight action as usual. 

We begin the week with a 14 point gain on the Dow.  The advance/declines were slightly negative and the volume was light.  The small stocks had good relative strength and that's a positive.  The summation index continues higher.  Still short term overbought for the major stock indices.  GE was flat on the session but volume remains extremely heavy.  Due for some kind of pause here I would think.  If we get back to $28, I'll look at the calls again.  Gold was off a few bucks today as the US dollar was higher.  The XAU was off almost 2 1/2, while GDX fell 2/3.  Volume was heavy.  It appears the 2 1/2 week gold share rally has run its course.  No trades here for now.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Not much economic data this week, mostly housing numbers.  Earnings should be the driver of prices for the time being.  I'm still looking for the S&P 500 to reach the 2050 level at least before we stall or pull back.  The short term overbought nature of the market here should mean that the upside is limited in the near term.  The extra week on the November options makes the premiums more expensive.  That is another reason to watch and wait for now.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight action and go from there.

Moving along to the upside as the Dow rose 74 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index continues higher.  Still moving towards linger term resistance for the S&P 500.  A closer look says that it's between 2050 and 2080.  We should get a pause when we get there.  Overbought here in the short term but the medium term indicators have plenty of room to go higher.  GE gained almost a buck on very heavy volume.  We're at yearly highs here with no overhead resistance.  The earnings were liked by the street.  The November call trade here was missed.  However if we pull back to the previous highs at $28, there may be a call trade there.  Just a thought, not completely sure.  Gold was off $11 on the futures as the US dollar was a bit higher.  The XAU dropped almost 2 points and GDX lost 1/2.  Volume was average.  Overbought here and due for a rest.  The fundamentals for gold haven't changed and they are not really bullish.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Not much to do here except watch and wait with respect to the SPY.  November has an extra week in the option cycle and the premiums are high.  The technicals remain overbought on the short term and that will have to work itself out before taking on the next position.  I'm still bullish on equities as we had a 10% move down and have moved nicely off of a double bottom.  The next thing that we have to deal with is the market reaction when we hit resistance.  I still think that declines can be bought.  However we have basically had a straight line up since the beginning of October.  I'll continue to keep an eye on things in pursuit of the next opportunity.  But right now it appears that watching and waiting is the best course of action.  I could be wrong.  Gold has found some positive interest lately but I'm not sure how long it can last.  Overbought short term here as well.  I'll be checking all the charts over the weekend as usual.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Back to the upside in a big way as the Dow gained 217 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive.  The summation index continues higher.  We might get to 2050 on the S&P 500 sooner rather than later.  I'm still a believer in higher rather than lower prices going forward.  I'll be looking at the SPY November calls if we come off of the overbought readings in the short term technical indicators.  For now it's patience as the main idea.  GE was up 3/8 on very heavy volume.  Earnings out tomorrow morning.  We are right at the 52 week high and will probably shoot higher tomorrow.  That's my guess at least.  There's no overhead resistance once we move higher past here for GE.  If by chance GE falls tomorrow, I'm still interested in the November calls.  Gold was up a few bucks on the futures despite strength in the US dollar.  The XAU and GDX didn't do much on light volume.  Overbought now for the gold shares.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The market acts like it wants to go higher here.  However resistance is not that far off.  With an extra week in the November option cycle, there isn't any hurry to take on another trade right now.  We'll wait for the next signal and act on it when it occurs.  If GE does break out to new highs tomorrow, then I think the overall market will be going a lot higher before the end of the year than most believe right now.  That's my take on things at the moment.  The foreign markets were higher overnight.  So we'll get through tomorrows expiration and go from there.

Lower again today as the Dow fell 157 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were negative but not as much as a down 150 market would suggest.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow.  Hence I'll repeat what I said yesterday.  I do not think that this is the beginning of something big to the downside.  The summation index is still moving up.  The loss today in Walmart contributed to the downside in the Dow.  The short term technical indicators have started to roll over for the major stock indices.  I got rid of my October SPY puts for a small gain of 40%.  As usual I could have gotten a better price.  With only 2 days to go here in the October option cycle, I decided to just get out with what I could.  I'll be looking at the SPY November calls to purchase now.  GE was off 1/4 and the volume was OK.  Just profit taking here before the earnings on Friday is my guess for what's going on here.  Gold was up almost $20 today on the futures as the economic data came in weak and the Feds beige book had no surprises.  The fact that the dollar dropped helped gold as well.  The XAU added 3 3/4, while GDX gained a point.  Volume was heavy for the gold shares.  Finally some interest in the gold shares as they are overbought and staying that way on the daily charts.  The September/October seasonal strength for gold has shown up late this year.  But here it is.  Can it last?  Perhaps.  We have broken above the highs set in August.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I still think that higher prices for equities are coming in the weeks ahead.  We had very high McClellan oscillator readings lately and the summation index is moving up.  I think that the S&P 500 can make it back to the 2050 level before resistance really kicks in.  If we get some more pull back next week, the SPY November calls are in the plan for the next trade.  For now, I'll let the expiration pass on Friday before I do anything else.  Gold appears to have finally gotten some interest.  However there is a lot of resistance at the $1180 to $2000 level for the yellow metal.  There's also a downtrend line at $1225 to deal with.  So I would not get overly bullish there for now.  Most of the major foreign markets were weaker last night.  We'll watch and see if that trend continues tonight.