Tuesday, January 14, 2014
Back to the upside today as the Dow gained 115 points on average volume. The advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive. The small stocks were particularly strong today and that bodes well for the near term. The summation index is still heading higher. I still believe that we are in a top building phase of the market for now. That takes time. We may hit nominal new highs but I do not think that we will see a sustained rally from here. We could drift higher into option expiration but I do not see any bold moves upwards for the stock indices. I could be wrong. GE was up 1/4 today but the volume was light. Earnings due on Friday. Gold dropped a bit on the futures during the session, off 5 bucks. The US dollar was a bit higher. The XAU was down 1 1/3 after being higher early on. ABX fell 1/3, GG off 3/4 and NEM shed 1/2. Volume was light to average. The short term technical indicators for the gold shares appear to be rolling over to the downside here. I still may attempt the February gold share calls when we reach oversold levels. Mentally I'm feeling OK, much better than yesterday. It is wise to remember that trading the financial markets requires all of your undivided attention. Anything less than that will put you at a disadvantage with the other players in the game. It was a nice bounce back today for the bulls and we'll see if they can build on it. The TRAN has set a new high in the past few days so we will see if the industrials confirm it. I'm still advising caution though as the sentiment remains extremely bullish. Gold took a rest today as we are at around the 50 day moving average and the $1250 level. The fundamentals here remain weak in my opinion. However that does not mean that it can't be traded from the long side now and then. Short term time frames are the best chance for profit here I believe. February gold share calls remain on my radar for now. We'll keep an eye on the overnight action and go from there.
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