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Monday, September 23, 2013

A drift lower today as we did not get the opposite price movement from Fridays expiration.  The Dow fell 50 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  I don't know where the next catalyst for the stock indices will come from.  Not a lot of economic data out this week.  The summation index continues to the upside.  The short term technicals for the market are still overbought, even with 3 days down in a row.  Not much to go on here but a continued rollover would not be a surprise.  GE gained 1/4 on OK volume.  Perhaps GE is signaling stable prices to come but it could simply have benefited today from a positive article in Barrons over the weekend.  Gold fell 5 bucks on the futures while the US dollar was a bit higher.  The XAU dropped 1 2/3 and looks like it is breaking the up trend line that started in July.  More negative action tomorrow would confirm this.  ABX, GG and NEM all lost around 1/4 or so on light volume.  My October ABX calls have lost half of their value.  I may not be able to wait this week out.  Perhaps I'll dump them tomorrow.  It looks like another trade gone wrong.  That has been the story for me all year so far.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Some profit taking is to be expected in the stock indexes after the nice run to new highs.  Whether it turns into something else remains to be seen.  All signs seem to be pointing to even higher prices going forward.  If the gold shares don't show some upside soon we could be heading back down to test the lows of June.  The fact that we could not even hold the gains of last Wednesday is bearish.  It looks like another losing trade for me.  We'll keep an eye on what happens overnight and take it from there.

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