Friday, April 08, 2011
The Dow fell 29 points today on the brink of a US government shutdown over the budget. We were lower but came back in the final hour. Volume was light and the advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. The budget fiasco is really much ado about nothing in my opinion. A budget will eventually be passed and this too will be forgotten. But it gives an excuse to sell stocks and the US dollar as well. Todays action could turn the summation index lower. That is something to keep an eye on. GE lost 16 cents on average volume. I'm going to have to pass on the April 20 calls there. There's only one week to go for the options. Perhaps I'll change my mind over the weekend. Gold had another good day, up $15. The XAU gained 3 points. ABX up 2/3, GG rose 1 1/4 but NEM fell 1/3. Volume was good. GG remains the leader here to the upside. We are very overbought here but I still might try the ABX calls next week. I did cancel the open order that I had for them today. ABX is on the verge of a breakout if it can get above $55. However the risk is very high since there is so little time left in the April options. The dollar got pounded again today and that was the reason for the rise in gold in my opinion. The US dollar is pretty oversold here as well. So there is plenty to think about over the weekend. Mentally I'm doing OK. The major stock indices are moving sideways at resistance. The transports have rolled over here and that could be the harbinger of lower prices near term. However I do think that we will be breaking through the near term resistance to new recovery highs. I could be wrong and often am. One week to go on the April options so if a trade is attempted it will have to work in a hurry. I'm leaning towards the ABX calls for now. I'll be going over the charts this weekend in hopes of finding something meaningful for next week. For now it's time for a break.
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