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Friday, January 21, 2011

It was an upside expiration Friday as the Dow gained 49 points on average volume. Advance/declines were positive. GE led the market higher with blockbuster earnings. We were also getting to a mildly oversold condition but that was alleviated with todays action. The overall market continues to lag though. Plus the summation index is moving down. So there are crosscurrents going on here. GE soared 1 1/3 on extremely heavy volume. It was the biggest one day percentage move for GE in 2 years. The January call options were the proper play. Perhaps I should have taken a chance this week but hindsight is always correct. I certainly could not have predicted todays explosive move. But it is something to think about in the future. However I really do not have a good track record when it comes to the short term option trades. Gold lost $5 today and the XAU fell 2 1/8. ABX, GG and NEM had fractional moves one way or the other on average volume. The US dollar was down pretty good today and gold did not respond again. My guess is that the risk trade that worked so well last year is being unwound. With the economy supposedly on the mend, fear has moved into the back seat. There is currently no flight to safety into gold and the US dollar. Just as gold and the dollar moved higher together for a time last year, they are now moving lower together as money is reallocated into stocks. That's my guess. I still may try the gold share calls for February due to the oversold conditions in these issues. We'll see. Mentally I'm doing OK. Hard to say where the indices are headed near term. I guess I could make a case for either way. However with GE powering higher, I'm inclined to think that we will continue to move higher in a grinding fashion. But when the Dow is leading things higher, it usually means we are at the end of the ascent. So we'll see what happens. For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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