We went out with a whimper as the Dow gained 7 points on very light volume. Advance/declines were positive. The overall market was weaker than the Dow despite the positive advance/decline line. I don't think we can make much of what went on this week due to the lack of volume. Next week should provide a better idea of the market picture. GE was up a dime on light volume. I will really have to think hard about dumping the January calls I have there in the beginning of next week. Still very overbought on the technicals there. I did have a specific price target in mind but it looks a bit unrealistic at the moment. We'll see. Gold was up $15 as we approach another all time high. The XAU gained 2 1/3. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on light volume and that is worrisome. The gold shares are lagging here and that isn't a positive. We'll see what happens Monday morning for a change in this situation hopefully. The dollar was down again today and that is supporting the price of gold for now. My GG calls gained some ground today but not much. Mentally I'm doing good, slept well. The 2010 trading year is behind me. I'm looking forward to a much better 2011. There is a lot to ponder over the weekend regarding the 2 trades that I'm currently holding. We'll see if my new money flow scenario pans out. But for now it's New Years eve and time for a break. Good Luck to everyone in the new trading year!

The Dow lost 15 points in this weeks usual light trading. Advance/declines were about even. Just hanging around here, waiting for next year. Still overbought both short and medium term. GE lost a few cents on light volume and my January calls lost a bit too. Still overbought here as well. I'm waiting for next week as I've stated before. Gold fell $7 on the futures and a bit more so far in the aftermarket. The XAU dropped 1 1/2. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on light volume. The dollar fell further but it didn't help gold. Hard to make anything of what is happening in this light volume vacuum. I'm holding on to the GG calls as well. Mentally I'm doing OK. Taking a look back at the past year of trading finds me with the worst losses since I started out in this crazy game. My trading capital took a hit to the tune of 58%. That's right. I lost over half my trading account in the past year. My losers swamped the few winners that I had in the last 12 months. There are no excuses. My ideas and strategy didn't work. My analysis of the markets was way off as well as my timing and risk control. It was ugly in virtually every facet of the game. I've made some adjustments going into 2011 but that doesn't guarantee anything. However this year is over so I'm wiping the slate clean and starting all over. It already looks better with the trades I have in place now but that could change in a heartbeat. I'll continue to put forth the effort that I believe is necessary for success and we'll see what happens.

The Dow gained 9 points today on very light volume. Advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive. We were higher most of the day but fell back in the final hour. Hard to decipher the market mood here. Perhaps it's just a waiting game for the end of the year. Still overbought and some decline would not necessarily be a bad thing. GE lost a nickel and my January calls fell a bit. Very overbought here and I would hope for some sideways action in the next couple of days. Gold gained $8 but the XAU only rose 3/4. The dollar was pretty weak today. The gold shares didn't do much, with fractional gains and losses on light volume. GG was up a bit and my January calls gained a touch. However the price action here hasn't been robust as we are almost at a new all time high for the precious metal. I will be keeping a close eye on what goes on here as I am not liking this trade as much as when it began. The gold shares are not acting as expected. Mentally I'm feeling OK. A couple of days left in the week, month and the year. It's a waiting game.

Another quiet day as the Dow gained 20 points on holiday light volume. Advance/declines were about even. Meandering around here is about the best way to describe it. Basically waiting for the beginning of 2011. Summation index moving higher. Hard to get excited here due to the lack of market participants. GE was up 13 cents and the volume here wasn't bad, considering. But we are very overbought and that condition needs to be relieved. My GE calls are still doing OK. Gold had a very good day, up $22. The XAU rose 4 3/8. ABX up 1 1/3, GG up 3/4 and NEM up 1 1/2. Volume was very light. My GG calls are in the black but unfortunately GG was the laggard of the group. I would have liked to have seen more of a gain there. I am beginning to think that I will be out of this trade sooner rather than later. The volume isn't there due to the holiday week. Also the gold shares are lagging the metal itself and that usually isn't bullish. The dollar didn't do much today but interest rates are on the rise in the US. That should attract money to the US dollar at some point. That won't be bullish for gold. On the plus side we were oversold on the gold shares and the technicals have turned up. We'll see how long that lasts. Mentally I'm feeling tired, did not sleep well or long enough. My 2 positions are in the black but we all know how quick things can change in this game. I'm still of the idea to hold on into the beginning of next year. That's where I stand at the moment.

A very slow back to work Monday as the Dow lost 18 points on light volume. Advance/declines were positive. A major East coast snow storm hampered the already sparse trading environment. It will be a thin trading scenario throughout the week. GE was up 15 cents and that helped my January calls. Overbought here though and it needs to take a rest or move sideways in order to move higher at the beginning of next year. We'll see. Gold gained a couple of bucks and the XAU fell 3/4. The US dollar was weaker today. ABX and NEM were flat on the day, while GG lost 1/4. Volume was very light here as well. I did place an order for some January GG calls overnight and it got filled this morning. We are oversold on the gold shares however that doesn't mean we can't get more oversold. I have been looking at this trade and I was going to give it a shot when it hit my price target on the options. I'm looking for money to flow into these issues at the beginning of the year. I could be wrong and have been a lot this past year. But I'm moving on. I do not plan on holding these options deep into January unless gold itself breaks out. Mentally I'm feeling good after a nice break from the market action. I'm going to hold my 2 positions into next year so it is a matter of watching and waiting for next week. The GE calls are solidly in the black and the GG calls are where I bought them. I'm looking for a good start to the new year.

The Dow ended the shortened trading week with a gain of 14 points on very light volume. Advance/declines were slightly negative The overall market was weaker than the Dow. As has been the case, we're still overbought. GE was flat on light volume. My January calls lost a touch. Gold fell $6 and the US dollar was weaker as well. The XAU rose 2 points however. ABX was up 3/8, GG was flat and NEM gained 3/4. Volume was light. I do want to purchase some gold share calls next week. I'm looking at GG this time. That is the idea at the moment. Mentally I'm doing OK, slept well. It should be another slow week ahead, with the end of the year upon us. Time to clear the ledgers and get ready for 2011. It's time for a nice long weekend. Happy Holidays everyone!

The light volume levitation continues as the Dow gained 26 points. Advance/declines were positive. Still overbought, still moving higher and the holiday week rise continues. No sellers to be found but that will change eventually. GE gained 30 cents on light volume. My January calls gained some ground. GE remains overbought as well but I'm holding on into next year. Gold lost a touch and the XAU fell 1 2/3. ABX lost 1/2, GG down 1/4 and NEM dropped 3/4. Volume was very light again. The dollar dropped a touch as well. I'm looking at the gold share calls for January and will probably purchase something next week. That is the game plan for now. Mentally I'm doing good. One trading day left for the week and then a long weekend break. Right now everything is proceeding according to plan. We'll see how long that lasts.

Continuing higher in light volume trading as the Dow gained 55 points today. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive. This should move the summation index to point to the upside. It's hard to trust light volume rallies but it is a holiday week. Staying overbought for longer than normal. That usually never ends well. We'll ride it out for now. GE gained 20 cents and my January calls moved up a bit. GE is very overbought as well. I'm still waiting for next year to sell these, hopefully at a profit. We are not at the target that I have in mind. Subject to adjustment as we move forward of course. Gold gained a couple of bucks and the XAU was up 1/3. ABX, GG and NEM were flat to fractional losers on very light volume. We're oversold on the gold shares and I'm looking at the GG January calls for the next trade. I'm going to try and wait for next week to buy them considering the thinly traded markets at the moment. We'll see. There's only 2 trading days left in this week. Mentally I'm feeling good. I already am in what looks to be a profitable GE for the start of the new year and I have a gold share idea waiting in the wings. However we all know the market will do what it wants. That's what makes the game so interesting as well as difficult. I don't expect much movement for the rest of this week.

A quiet day as expected as the Dow lost 13 points on light volume. Advance/declines were slightly positive. The overall market was stronger than the Dow. It should be an uneventful week. GE was flat on light volume. My January calls lost some ground on the time decay. That is to be expected but I don't think it will be terminal. But you never know. Gold gained $7 and the XAU was up 1 1/2. ABX up 1/4, GG up 1/2 and NEM up 3/4. Volume was light. The technicals here are oversold and I will be looking to get some January calls in the next few trading sessions. The dollar was up today as well but gold was higher anyway. I still think that new money will be going into gold at the beginning of the new year. This should be beneficial to the gold shares if it indeed does occur. I'm trying to be patient with the purchase though. It's a shortened trading week and volume is thin. There is potential for time decay in these options as well. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Not much else to report. I'll be keeping an eye on the gold shares.

It was an uneventful expiration as the Dow lost 7 points on good volume. Advance/declines were positive. It was a sideways week and the technicals are still overbought. We will now enter the end of the year holiday mode. Trading will most likely be slow. There is also an extra week in the January option cycle. GE lost 7 cents on decent volume. There's been a lot of good news out of GE so far this month so I wouldn't expect any more in the near term. I'm holding the January calls until next year. They're still showing a profit. Gold gained 8 bucks today and the dollar rose a bit as well. The XAU was up 3/4. GG and NEM both dropped 1/2, while ABX was flat. We are getting oversold here so I'll be taking a long hard look at the gold share calls in the next couple of weeks. That should be my next trade initiation. I do expect the gold shares to rise in the beginning of the year with new money flows. I could be wrong. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep well. That should be it for this years trading ledger and it was a disaster. Let's hope there isn't a repeat next year. I've made some changes in risk management and we'll see how they work out. The markets will have many opportunities available. It's just a matter of finding them. It's getting close to Friday evening and time for a rest.

Back to the upside as the Dow gained 41 points on average volume. I don't think that is all the decline we are going to get here but it puts an end to trying an OEX call trade. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. Expiration tomorrow and then we'll move into holiday and end of the year mode. Things will slow down and trading will be thin. GE gained 28 cents today on average volume. My GE January calls are hanging in there. I'll be holding these until next year at this point. Gold fell $15 and the XAU dropped 2 7/8. The dollar didn't do much today. ABX and GG were both off 7/8, while NEM fell 2/3. Volume was good. The gold shares were lower but came back late. The gold shares have held up better than the metal itself. That's usually a bullish sign. I'll be keeping an eye on the January calls for the next trade. We are moving to oversold territory on the gold shares. I expect strength in these issues at the beginning of next year. Of course, I could be wrong. Mentally I'm doing OK. Not much else to do here but watch the expiration tomorrow. I do not expect any dramatic moves up or down in the equity markets in the next 2 weeks. It should be sideways action with perhaps a Santa Claus rally moving us a bit higher. Barring any unforeseen events, that's what I expect.

A down day in the markets? Can it really happen? The Dow lost 19 points today on average volume. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. The overall market was weaker than the Dow. I do not expect this decline to last. I did place an overnight order for some December OEX calls. I am leaving the order open for tomorrow. This is a risky play with only 2 days left. However I do believe that we will see some decent upside before the close on Friday. I could be wrong and have been for much of the year. So we'll see. I may cancel the order tomorrow morning as well. GE lost 20 cents on good volume. My GE calls lost some ground but are still profitable. We are not near the target price that I have for GE prior to the January expiration. I'll adjust my expectations as we move forward in time. Gold lost $18 today and then some in the aftermarket. The XAU fell 3 7/8. ABX down 1/2, GG down 1/3 and NEM down 1 1/8. Volume was light. The dollar had a strong day and gave a reason to dump gold. The daily dollar candlestick chart is looking bullish. I am still looking to purchase some gold share calls before the new year. This could be the beginning of a pullback that I've been waiting for. Mentally I'm still feeling a bit tired. 2 days to go on the December options and I'm considering an OEX trade? This idea is really more of a feel for what is going on in the markets lately. Overbought markets tend to stay that way for much longer than anyone anticipates. That is what I think we're in the midst of. Declines will be aggressively purchased. So we'll see what happens.

It is a market that defies logic as we added another 48 points today. Advance/declines were negative though and the volume was average. The Fed made their announcement and we sold off a bit but then came back. We are so very overbought that I cannot even write about it anymore. If there is a pullback, I would buy it. However there are only 3 days left on the December option cycle. Plus being this overextended, the risk of getting the OEX calls is even more than usual. We'll see. GE gained a few cents on good volume. The January calls didn't close much different than yesterday. I'm holding on until further notice. Gold was up $6 but sold off in the aftermarket. The XAU lost 5/8. GG and NEM were flat, while ABX lost 3/4. Volume was average. The dollar was up a bit. No signal at the moment for the gold shares. Mentally I'm feeling tired, did not sleep well. The song remains the same and it's a broken record. Overbought, staying there and the market refuses to sell off. It will at some point and if this momentum keeps going up, the end won't be pretty. I still might try the OEX calls before Friday if we get some downside. My own reading of the technicals says that there will be another decent rise before the end of the week if we get some downward pressure. That's a guess as usual. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

The Dow rose 18 points today on average volume. Advances barely beat out declines. The overall market was weaker than the Dow. We won't go up forever and I think tomorrow should start a bit of a decline but I think it will be short lived. If we do pull back tomorrow I will be looking to purchase some OEX calls on weakness Wednesday. That is the idea at the moment. 4 days to go for the December expiration. GE lost a dime and my GE January options lost some ground. Volume was good. I'm holding on to these options at least until the beginning of next year barring an unforeseen collapse. Gold was up $13 and the XAU rose 2 1/3. ABX and NEM gained about 1/2, while GG was flat. Volume was light. The dollar lost ground today. I need to see the gold shares in oversold territory before trying the January calls there. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep well. If the market cooperates, I'll be trying one more trade for this year. If not it will probably mean the sidelines until a decent signal is generated. It has been a terrible trading year but lately perhaps things are starting to get back to profitability. That remains to be seen though.

The Dow continues to defy conventional logic and grinds higher. It gained 40 points today on average volume. Advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive. We really need to see some pullback or this won't end pretty. The market is very overbought still. And I have been saying that for over a week. This won't last forever but we have broken through the overhead resistance at 1220 on the S&P 500. The overall market remains stronger than the Dow. I'd like to see a pullback to 1220 on the S&P and then we could move higher from there. That would be my ideal scenario. GE gained 58 cents on heavy volume as they announced an increase in their quarterly dividend. Overbought here as well. Plus I don't know what other good news could come out for this issue after today. The January calls I own are solidly in the black. I would like to see a consolidation here before moving higher. We'll see. Gold lost $8 today and the XAU was up 1 1/4. ABX and GG were both off fractionally on light volume. NEM gained 1 1/8 on light volume. A mixed picture for the gold shares. The dollar bounced around today but finished a touch higher. I'm still bullish here for the January gold share calls. Mentally I'm feeling good. One week to go for the December options. If we see some weakness early in the week, I'll try the OEX calls. If not it will have to wait for next year most likely. GE has surpassed my expectations already but I'm going to hold on to the calls for now. We'll have to see if expiration week has its usual positive bias. After that, it should be slow going for the rest of the year. Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

The Dow lost a couple of points on good volume as the market refuses to go down. Advance/declines were positive. We are the most overbought as we have been in the entire year. Yet there is no decline. The overall market was stronger than the Dow today. If we get a pullback, I'll be looking at the OEX calls. GE gained a few cents on light volume. My January calls are still in the black. I'm holding on for now. Gold gained $9 on the futures as the dollar gained a touch. The XAU was up 1 3/4. ABX up 3/8, with GG up 3/4. NEM fell 1/2. Volume was mixed. I'd like to see some sideways action in the gold shares before purchasing some January calls. We'll see what happens. Mentally I'm feeling OK. 6 days to go for the December option expiration. I'll try the OEX calls if things work out as I would like. Otherwise I'll have to sit it out. Things should really slow down after next week due to the holidays and the end of the year. So we'll see what happens tomorrow and take it from there.

The Dow closed higher by 13 points today on good volume. Advance/declines were negative. We are very overbought both short and medium term. We really need to see some type of pullback. If not, a consolidation at the least. We could get a market melt up but the odds for that are slim. I'm still a believer in higher prices but I don't think it will just be a straight line. I'm still considering some OEX calls for next week. GE was flat today on lighter volume. The January calls I own are still in the black. GE needs to consolidate as well before moving higher. That would be the ideal scenario but we all know that rarely happens. Gold took a hit today as the dollar was higher for the third day in a row. It fell $25. The XAU lost 4 3/4. ABX down 1 1/4, GG down 1 1/2 and NEM down 1 5/8. Volume was pretty good to the downside. Perhaps this is the decline that I was waiting for to get long some January gold share calls. I'll be waiting for an oversold reading on the technicals and then I will purchase some options. That's the idea at the moment. I still feel that there is demand for the precious metal due to global economic uncertainty. I don't see that changing anytime soon. The dollar is also a major factor here. It seems to have found a bid lately but I don't think that will last forever. We'll see. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep enough. 7 days left in the December option cycle. I'll be keeping an eye on the OEX here. If we see some near term weakness, I'll be trying the calls at the beginning of next week. That is the game plan for now.

It was a one day reversal to the downside as the Dow opened higher, was up around 90 points and then closed the day off 3. We sold off in the last hour. Not a good sign going forward for the bulls but we are oversold and due for some selling. Volume was heavy. The advance/declines were even once again. A pullback would be healthy in the overall scheme of things for the bulls. We got some news on extending some Federal tax breaks and that was the catalyst for the early rally. Summation index is moving higher but not with any conviction. GE has shown good relative strength lately and was up 33 cents on heavy volume. Overbought here as well and I expect GE to take a rest for next few days. The January calls I own are solidly in the black for now. I still expect to try an OEX trade before expiration if things set up for it. Gold lost $7 today and more in the aftermarket. The XAU fell 3 1/2. ABX down 2/3, while GG and NEM both lost 7/8. Volume was average. The gold shares opened higher as well but could not hold their gains. Perhaps traders are locking in their profits on these issues for this year. That's my guess at this point. I still would like to get some January calls. We'll see if the opportunity presents itself. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Not much else to report today. I expect tomorrow to be weak following todays action. We'll see how it goes.

The Dow lost 20 points today on light volume. Advance/declines were even. We are taking a needed pause as the S&P 500 stalls around the 1220 level. I would expect sideways to lower action for the next few days. I am expecting the market to go higher before December expiration. I have an OEX trade in mind. I will be looking to purchase some December calls at the end of this week or early next week. That is the game plan for now. GE lost a few cents today and the January calls I own lost a bit of ground. I'm sticking with them for now. I think in the long run this trade could pan out. But we'll see. Gold was up another $10 and more in the aftermarket. The XAU rose 3 1/2. ABX up 7/8, GG up 3/4 and NEM up 1 1/4. Volume was average. The dollar was higher and gold continued to rally. Perhaps the market knows something that we don't. Overbought here and staying there. I will get some gold share calls on the next pullback. The money just wants to come into gold. It seems as though there is no stopping that. Mentally I'm doing OK. This week should be a non-event if all goes as planned. A consolidation before we move higher. But I could be wrong and often am. I don't think we'll see a full fledged decline.

The Dow was lower for most of the day but made a final hour comeback to finish the day with a gain of 19 points. Advance/declines were positive and the volume was light. The employment numbers were much worse than expected but the market held up rather well. When the market ignores bad news it usually means higher prices. We'll have to see about that. Getting overbought now so a pullback wouldn't be out of the question. Summation index is turning. GE gained a few cents after being lower early on. The January calls that I have are still positive. It was a good week for GE and we'll see if it can build on that going forward. I'm still a believer that it will. Gold had a stellar day as the dollar got whacked on the employment news. The precious metal gained over $15 and added more in the aftermarket. The XAU rose 4 3/8. ABX up 3/4, GG up 1/2 and NEM up 1 7/8. Volume was lighter than it has been. ABX and GG look as though they have put in doji tops on the daily candlestick charts. The gold shares are overbought here but we just set a new high in the price of gold itself. Money continues to flock to gold. That is a trend that I expect to continue. That is why I would like to get some January gold share calls if we get a pullback from here. May not happen though. Mentally I'm doing OK. It was a very good week for the GE January call position and that gives me an optimistic view for how that trade may pan out. Plenty of time to go for that trade yet. The overall market seems like it wants to go higher. If we solidly get above 1220 on the S&P 500, I think the rally will continue. For now, it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

The rally seems to have legs as the Dow gained 106 points on good volume. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive. No more European worries for now it appears. How long that lasts is anybodies guess. It is as if the employment report tomorrow doesn't even matter at this point. Perhaps the market knows things that we don't. It usually does. Todays action should turn the summation index positive. We're not that overbought yet. GE gained 38 cents on good volume. We have broken through a daily downtrend line there today. My January calls are now in the black. I do have an upside target for GE but it isn't close to that yet. Moving to overbought there though. I'll be holding on for now. Gold was up around $10 most of the day but fell back for a gain of a buck. The XAU rose 3 1/3. ABX and NEM both gained 7/8, while GG rose 3/8. Volume was light to average for the gold shares. Gold itself almost broke out to a new high but fell back. The gold shares are outperforming here and that is usually bullish going forward. The dollar was a bit weaker today ahead of tomorrows employment numbers. If the dollar rally has ended, gold should move to new highs. Time will tell on that. I'd like to get some January gold share calls if we get a pullback before then. Mentally I'm doing OK, could have slept longer. The month has started out strongly and we are at S&P 500 resistance at 1220. I'd expect some hesitation here before moving to higher prices. That's my expectation but I've been wrong most of this year. We'll get the job numbers tomorrow and look forward to the weekend.

The Dow staged an impressive first day of the month rally as it gained 250 points on average volume. Advance/declines were over 3 to 1 positive. We were oversold and a bounce was due. What happens next is important for the medium term. If we fall back again, I think we can expect more of the same that we have seen recently with the market moving sideways. However if we can build on todays gain, I think we will take out the recent highs and the rally will resume. The summation index most likely turned up today but it will have to keep rising for the all clear signal going higher. We'll see. GE rose 47 cents on good volume. My January calls moved back to break even. Doubling the position at a better price seems to have been the right move at the moment. However we have plenty of time to go here. I do like todays action though and hopefully we can build on it. Gold only gained a couple of bucks even with the dollar losing ground. The XAU followed the overall market higher, gaining 4 1/3. ABX and NEM both rose 3/4, with GG tacking on 1/2. Volume was good to average. Perhaps gold will take a run at the highs as well. I think we'll need to see a lower dollar for that to occur but that's a guess as usual. I'll keep an eye on things. Mentally I'm doing OK. Today we got a rally out of nowhere and the following days will tell if it is for real or not. Fridays employment report and the market reaction to it will be very important. It could very well set the tone for the rest of the month. I think tomorrow will be a flat non-event while waiting for Fridays numbers. We'll see what happens.

The Dow continued lower today with a loss of 46 points on good volume. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. We closed the month on a down note. The summation index continues lower. We are moving to oversold territory. I still think this is a sideways consolidation before we move higher. But I could be wrong and usually have been this year. GE lost 14 cents on average volume. I bought some more GE January calls. The calls I had already got cut in half so I doubled my position. This isn't something that I normally do. It may not work out but I decided to take a chance. My thinking is that GE will follow the overall market higher in December and January. We'll see. Gold rose $18 today despite strength again in the US dollar. The XAU gained 2 1/3. ABX up 1 1/3, GG up 1/2 and NEM up 3/4. Volume was average. There is lingering fear about European debt so the dollar and gold are once again viewed as safe havens. Gold has bounced at its 50 day moving average on a daily basis. Perhaps the gold shares are the correct trade here again but I'd like to wait until sometime in December to try that again. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Doubling up on a losing position is not recommended. For some reason though, I feel that this is the time to give it a try. Perhaps it's because there is so much time left on these options to turn profitable. Time will tell. December begins tomorrow and we have the employment numbers on Friday.

The Dow started the week with a loss of 39 points on light volume. Advance/declines were negative. We were off over 100 or more for a good portion of the day but came back in the last couple of hours. End of the month tomorrow. Summation index still moving down. We are oversold. No OEX trades for now but I would be leaning to buying some calls before the employment report on Friday. That's my best guess at the moment. GE was up 16 cents but my January calls aren't doing much. Still showing a loss but there's plenty of time left. However I'll need to see some kind of upward movement before the end of the year or I'll book the loss for 2010. Gold was up a couple of bucks as the dollar continued higher. The XAU gained a point. ABX and NEM were down fractionally, while GG showed a slight gain. Volume was light with the exception of NEM. NEM led the way up and there is a chance that it will also lead the way down. There's also a possibility that today was the bottom for NEM as well. We're almost at the 200 day moving average there and the candlestick pattern today could be a star at the end of a downtrend. We'll see. Mentally I'm doing OK, slept well enough. I'm not really getting any clear signals here and so I'm on the sidelines for the short term. I might try something before Fridays employment report if things line up. Which way is anybodies guess. I still feel we will see higher prices going into the new year. It's a matter of how we line up before that. Patience for now.

The Dow lost 95 points today in a holiday shortened session. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative and the volume was extremely light. We are going back and forth here with a resolution coming. If the S&P 500 drops below 1180 and stays there, then we will be in for more downside. If not, then I think we go back up to the recent highs. The summation index is still pointing down. The technicals are oversold at the moment. A case could be made for either side. The dollar is on the rise as Korean tensions escalate and Euro worries persist. Interesting enough, gold fell $12 today. Probably in reaction to the US dollars good day. The XAU dropped 3 3/4. ABX off 1/2, GG down a buck and NEM fell 1 3/8. Volume was very light. GE fell 12 cents and the January options that I hold are solidly in the red. If we break down further here, this trade will be over. Mentally I'm doing fine. I'll have to check the charts in the next couple of days and decide if there is a viable OEX trade here or not. The market usually rallies during Thanksgiving but that wasn't the case as the week ended. So we'll see. Interesting times.

The Dow bounced back 150 points in pre-holiday trading. Advance/declines were 4 to 1. Volume was light. We are moving sideways as we have now relieved the overbought condition of a couple of weeks ago. The summation index is still heading down but may turn up soon. That's a guess. The market has shrugged off the Korean tensions and the Irish debt problem. We could have had more downside with all the bad news but so far it looks like a consolidation before we go higher. GE was up 18 cents on light volume but it didn't help my January calls. I'm not sure this was the trade to do looking at it now in retrospect. But we'll see what happens. Gold lost $5 but the XAU gained a point. ABX and GG were fractionally higher, while NEM fell 1/2. Volume light here as well. The dollar didn't do much today. I'll look at the gold charts over the weekend and decide what to do there. I think the sidelines are the place to be there for now. Mentally I'm doing OK. That is about it for this weeks trading for all intents and purposes. Thanksgiving is tomorrow and then we have a shortened stock market session on Friday. Other markets will be closed. So it's time to take a break for a few days barring any unforeseen circumstances. Enjoy the holiday.

The Dow fell 142 points today on average volume. Advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative. Tensions in Korea will be part of the excuse. I again placed an open order for some OEX puts overnight but wasn't filled. Summation index continues lower. We are getting close to the 50 day moving average on the S&P 500 and we'll see if it provides support. Getting close to medium term oversold if we're not there already after todays action. GE fell 27 cents and needs to hold in here or I will be forced to sell the January calls early at a loss. I'll try this trade again if that occurs. I'm still a believer in the longer term market uptrend. Gold gained almost $20 today on the Korean conflict news. The dollar also had a very good day on safe haven buying. However the XAU fell 2 1/4 in sympathy with the overall market. ABX, GG and NEM had fractional moves one way or the other on average volume. I'm still interested in the gold share calls but will hold off on purchasing them for now. I don't think the dollar and gold will rise together for an extended period of time. I could be wrong as usual. I'm still thinking about the January gold share calls. I am also considering trying the options on GLD. We'll see. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Tomorrow should be a non event considering it is the day before a long holiday weekend. However there is plenty of economic data to be released. So we'll see what happens.

The Dow lost 25 points today on light volume. Advance/declines were even. We were down about 140 during the day but slowly came back. The overall market was stronger that the Dow. The summation index remains in a down trend. I placed an open order overnight for some OEX puts but it wasn't filled. I canceled the order during the day. Not sure if I will try that again this week but we'll see. The market is making up its mind where to go. GE lost 19 cents and my January calls keep losing ground. I may have to bail out of this sooner than I thought. Plenty of time but the price action isn't positive. Gold gained $5 and another $10 in the aftermarket. The XAU rose 2 1/3. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on light volume. The dollar gained some ground today but it did not affect the price of gold. No trades here for now. We are moving up from oversold on the technicals for gold. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep as much as I wanted. Short week and I should probably stay on the sidelines. I'll check things over tonight and go from there.

The Dow closed up 22 points today in light trading. Advance/declines were positive. A pretty quiet option expiration. Volume should continue to slow down next week for Thanksgiving. Summation index still pointing down. I thought about perhaps trying the OEX puts again. I'll mull over this idea during the weekend. I think that perhaps doing nothing is the best choice during next week. GE was up a bit and the volume was nothing special. My January calls are still in the red. I'll consider ending this trade over the weekend as well. Gold was off a touch today as well as the US dollar. The XAU gained 1 1/2. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on light volume. I'm still in a wait and see mode for the gold shares here. There is seasonal strength going into January. But it's the end of November and I think patience is warranted for now. But who knows? Mentally I'm feeling OK. I don't expect much action next week considering Thanksgiving is on Thursday and Friday will be a shortened session. So it's really time to sit tight I think. That is what I'll try and do. It's the end of the week and time for a rest.

The Dow got the expected bounce today, up 173 points on good volume. Advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive. Expiration tomorrow and then we'll see what happens. If the recent down move is more than just a short term correction, we should see weakness soon. If it is just a pause in the ongoing move higher, we may consolidate for a while before resuming the rally. I'm leaning towards a resumption of the downside. Perhaps some OEX puts will be in order next week. Gold gained $16 as the dollar was weaker today. The XAU rose 3 1/2. ABX was up 3/8, while GG and NEM were up 3/4. Volume was lighter than lately. We will have to see how things shake out here as well. I'm leaning towards the calls here after a period of sideways consolidation. Patience for now. GE was higher today and the January options that I hold were flat. This trade is not working out as I had hoped. I'm thinking that perhaps I will get out of this trade soon. When the underlying instrument moves higher and the calls don't budge, it isn't a good sign. So it's looking like just another mistake in the year of many. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Not much else to report. We'll get through tomorrow and then a holiday week of trading. The European debt fears seemed to blow over rather quickly this time. Perhaps they will resurface but that's a guess. On to Friday.

The Dow fell 15 points today on average volume. Advance/declines were positive. The overall market was stronger than the Dow. We are oversold and due for a bounce. I did cancel the open order for the OEX calls but I do think that trade could work in the next 2 trading sessions. I may try again tomorrow. Getting medium term oversold as well and will be with any negative action tomorrow. This would be a risky trade but the odds are in favor for a bounce. GE was flat on the day and my January calls are slowly losing ground. I may not hold this into next year after all. We'll see. Gold lost a touch in the futures market. The XAU gained 1/2. ABX, GG and NEM had fractional moves one way or the other on light volume. The dollar dropped slightly. No trades in mind here at the moment. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Just 2 days before option expiration and then a shortened holiday week. Perhaps the best course of action will be to just stay on the sidelines. I'll see how we open tomorrow and go from there. The trend is still lower for now, even if we get the expected bounce.

The Dow continued lower today and fell 178 points on good volume. Advance/declines were 6 to 1 negative. The summation index is heading down. Trouble in Europe surfaced again, with Ireland being todays main culprit. The trend has changed but we are oversold and I think there will be a decent bounce before expiration. I have an open order in for some OEX calls. I was just going to pack it in with regards to trading for the year but I've changed my mind. Opportunities should be taken advantage of. We'll see what happens. I do think that we will be heading lower for a couple of weeks though. Gold got clobbered again as the dollar continues higher. The precious metal futures lost over $35. The XAU fell 6 and change. ABX, GG and NEM were all lower by a buck or more on good volume. I don't have any trades in mind here but I will get long when there is a valid signal in my opinion. GE dropped 1/3 on better than average volume. The calls I own lost a bit of ground but this is a longer term trade. I'll dump them if we completely fall apart here but I do not expect that to happen. Of course I've been wrong most of the year. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The psychology of the market is changing here from bullish to bearish. I don't think that it will last too long but we'll see. 3 days to go for the November option cycle. If my order for the OEX calls isn't filled tomorrow I may have to adjust it. My hope is that it gets filled on a weaker opening. We all know that hope isn't a good way to trade. So we'll see what happens overnight and take it from there.

The Dow gained 9 points today on lighter volume. We were up over 80 during the day. Advance/declines were negative. The overall market was weaker that the Dow. The market tried to rally but could not hold on. Does that mean tomorrow will be negative? Perhaps. Still short term oversold here. The summation index is heading lower. The path of least resistance is lower for now. Gold was up $3 but sold off in the aftermarket. The XAU fell 3 1/4. ABX and GG were off 1/2, while NEM fell 7/8. Volume was very light. I thought about getting some GG calls today for tomorrows inflation report. However the dollar remains strong lately and gained more ground today. So I didn't do anything. GE was down a bit and the January calls I own dropped into the red. If the market has a significant drop here, this trade may not pan out either. So we'll see. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. Expiration week is upon us. We are still medium term overbought. Tomorrow could get interesting considering we are short term oversold. There's a chance it could be a very down day but that is a guess as usual.

The remaining trading days of last week saw the Dow with a slight gain on Wednesday followed by weakness Thursday and Friday. The summation index looks to have rolled over here and is heading down. We are short term oversold at this point but medium term neutral. Expiration week is upon us and it usually has a positive bias. GE fell along with the overall market and the open order that I left in got filled. It's the January 2011 GE calls. I plan on holding these until after the earnings are released in January. That is the game plan for now. Gold didn't do much until Friday when it got clobbered and dropped over $35. The gold shares themselves are actually holding up better than the metal here. That is usually bullish going forward. The US dollar finished the rest of the week with gains and put in a solid week. We have held the key area of 76 for now. Mentally I'm feeling great after some time away from the markets. Perhaps I'll take vacations more often. Plenty of economic data out in the coming week for the markets to chew on. A holiday week after that. I think that next week will tell if this decline is just a blip in the ongoing rise or the start of something more meaningful to the downside. We'll see what happens.

A bit of downside today as the Dow lost 60 points on average volume. Advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative. I don't think it's the beginning of anything sustained but I've been wrong before. Quite a lot this year by the way. GE lost a touch and I'm leaving in the open order for the January calls. I'll be on vacation for the rest of the week. Gold had a sharp one day reversal today, opening higher and closing lower. Although the futures remained in positive territory, we sold off $20 in the aftermarket. The XAU lost almost 6 after being higher early on. ABX fell 1/3, GG off 1 1/3 and NEM dropped 2 1/8. All had very heavy volume on downside reversals. I'm not sure how long this will last but the charts look bearish after todays action. The dollar had another good day. So the US dollar index has reversed to the upside after breaking the key level of 76. That is not what traders expected. Golds volatility returned today and that is why it is a very tough market to trade at times. I'll still be looking to get long the gold shares in the future though. Mentally I'm doing OK, a bit tired. There will not be any blog postings for the rest of the week as I am taking the rest of the week off. It's my first vacation from the markets since the summer of 2006. I'll post a recap of the rest of this week on Sunday.

The Dow fell 37 points today on lighter than lately volume. Advance/declines were negative. We were overbought so a pause here is expected. I doubt it will turn into anymore more than that. The Fed is providing the liquidity to keep the market going. Until that changes, the trend is up. The overall market was stronger than the Dow which usually leads to higher prices going forward. I'm leaving in the open order for the GE January calls but we'll need to see a drop in prices for this to get filled. Gold made another new high today, even with strength in the dollar. The XAU gained 5 1/4. ABX up 2 , GG up 1 3/8 and NEM up a buck. Volume was good for ABX, average for the others. I've said for weeks that money continues to flow into gold and that hasn't changed despite being overbought for an extended period of time. Nothing can derail this market at the moment. I've had many opportunities to take trading positions in the gold shares and I've missed them all. Hopefully I'll do better in the future. Mentally I'm doing OK, slept well enough. Not much else to report. We'll see what tomorrow brings but it should be more of the same.

The Dow gained 9 points on good volume. Advance/declines were positive. The employment report came out much stronger than anticipated. We are short and medium term overbought and staying there. If the employment report is to be believed perhaps we will start to hear about the economy moving too fast. Maybe the coming easing from the Fed isn't needed. That's a guess as usual. I expect some type of pull back in the next 2 days but nothing that will derail this market. Gold was up another $14 today despite a stronger dollar. The XAU gained 3/4. ABX, GG and NEM had slight fractional moves one way or the other on average volume. Gold is about at $1400. With no signs of slowing down. I do still like the gold shares but they will need to take a rest at some point. Or maybe not. We're overbought there again but it hasn't meant anything lately. I'm still leaving in the GE January call trade to see if it will get filled. I'll need to see some weakness there for my price to be hit. So we'll see what happens. This is a longer term option trade that I usually don't do. Hasn't been filled yet and it could be another case of too little too late. Mentally I'm doing OK. Another losing trade this week but it's nothing new. That should just about do it for me this year. There would really have to be something that stands out for me to put on another position for 2010. And I don't see that happening. I'm also going on vacation next week for the first time since 2006. The market continues higher with lower interest rates and an accommodating Fed. Until that scenario changes the trend is up. We are also entering the favorable 3rd year of the presidential term. It's a time to be positive. The weekend is here and time to take a break from the markets.

The Dow exploded to the upside, gaining 219 points on heavy volume. Advance/declines were 5 to 1 positive. Again, my trade was a loser. I dumped the OEX puts for a 60% loss. Not a lot of money, so that was a plus if you can consider that a plus. The market is going nowhere but higher for the foreseeable future. Do not fight the Fed. Only long side trades should be considered at this point. I did place an order for the longer term GE calls but yesterday was probably the correct time to do that. I'm leaving that order open in case the price returns to the level that I'll purchase them. Gold took off as well, up $45 to a new record high. The XAU gained 9 1/2. ABX was up 7/8, GG up 1 5/8 and NEM up 2 3/8. Volume was good. The dollar has broken through the 76 level. Gold has nowhere to go but higher as well. I suppose that I should have gotten some gold share calls last week. I could have adjusted the order. But I didn't and it's just another mistake in a trading year full of them. There isn't anything that I can do about it now. Mentally I'm doing OK. But I need to take a break. My guess is that I'm done trading for the year. I need a fresh start at this point. I'll leave in the GE call order since it rolls into next year anyway. The Federal Reserve is going to try and revive the economy again. It worked somewhat last time but not enough to help with the employment situation. So we'll see what happens this time. The employment numbers come out tomorrow and I don't think they're going to matter. The dollar is still going to fall. The beneficiaries will be stocks and gold. That is where the profitable trades will be.

The much anticipated Fed announcement has come and gone. The Dow gained 26 points on good volume. Advance/declines were positive. The market was lower for much of the day, then sold off on the announcement. We then rallied all the way back to close near the highs of the day. We are still short and medium term overbought. I did purchase some OEX puts and they are already in the red. At least I adjusted the price down. I do expect some weakness here soon but I've been wrong before. Perhaps the employment report on Friday will be the catalyst. Gold lost $20 on the futures but gained ground in the aftermarket on the Fed easing. ABX fell 1/3, GG dropped 3/8 and NEM lost 3/4. All had good volume. These issues were also lower earlier in the day. The dollar dropped a bit on the Fed but not as much as traders expected in my opinion. Perhaps a weak jobs report will push the dollar lower and gold higher. We'll see. No gold share trades for now, we have moved back to overbought here as well. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep well or long enough last night. So I'm in the OEX trade and it already has the feel that perhaps we will just continue to grind higher and this has the potential to be yet another loser. However time will tell. Speaking of time, I don't think that I will be holding on to this position that long. The Fed did nothing that wasn't already expected. After a brief sell-off, the indices resumed their climb. I'll wait for Fridays employment numbers and go from there.

The Dow gained 64 points today on average volume. Advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 positive. It looks like we are going to try and break out to the upside. I am not a believer though. Last night I entered an order for some OEX puts. I am leaving it in for tomorrow. We will be both short and medium term overbought tomorrow on any positive movement in the indices. The Fed announcement should be a market mover tomorrow. We'll see what happens. Gold rose $6 today and the XAU was up 1 1/2. The dollar took a good drop today, however gold itself didn't do much. Another Fed waiting game here in my opinion. ABA and GG were both up about 5/8 on light volume. NEM reported earnings and fell 1 1/3 on good volume. I'd still like to try something in the gold shares if we get some type of pull back. That remains to be seen. Mentally I'm doing OK. So I'm going to try the OEX puts here on the Fed announcement. We also have the employment report out on Friday. I don't expect this trade to be held for a long time if it gets filled. I will again check the charts tonight and see if any adjustment needs to be made. Perhaps I will decide to cancel the open order but I doubt it. We should see some volatility tomorrow.

The Dow gained 6 points today on average volume. Advance/declines were positive. We were up over 100 points early. Not really overbought or oversold here. I think it's a waiting game for the Fed announcement on Wednesday. We'll get through the elections tomorrow. No OEX trades for now. Gold lost $7 on the futures today. The XAU gained 1/2. The dollar was up today. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional moves one way or the other on light volume. Might try a gold share trade if we get a sell off from the Fed. We'll see. I'm also looking at longer term GE calls going out to next year. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Just under 3 weeks for the November option cycle. If there is a decent trade out there, now is the time to put it on. I'm still a bit gun shy from the lousy trading year that I've had but I can't let that stand in the way. I'll check the charts tonight and go from there.

The Dow closed the month with a gain of 4 points. Advance/declines were positive and the volume was lighter than lately. GDP for the 3rd quarter came in as expected and wasn't the market mover that I expected. We are still just moving sideways here and I expect some type of explosive move one way or the other soon. I don't think we will stay in a trading range forever. Either next weeks election results or the announcement by the Fed should be a catalyst. No OEX trades yet. Gold gained $15 on a slightly weaker dollar and possible terrorist bomb threat packages around the world. The XAU gained 2 3/4. ABX and NEM were up a buck, while GG gained 1/3. Volume was average. Nothing is stopping the upward movement of gold. Money continues to flow there. That is really where my next trade should be. At least that's my thought at the moment. But I'll have to ponder this over the weekend. Mentally I'm feeling OK. October was another good month for the stock indices and we never got the usual fall in the fall. Next week should be interesting considering we'll get the Fed and the employment report in the same week. There will be opportunities. Whether or not I'll be able to take advantage of them is another question. I really should have done something with the gold shares this week. But it's the story of 2010, missed chances and bad trades. I'll check the charts over the weekend and try and come up with a game plan for next week. It's the last Friday in October and time for a rest.

The Dow closed down 12 points today on average volume. Advance/declines were positive. The overall market was stronger than the Dow, Still moving sideways here but that could change tomorrow with the release of the 3rd quarter GDP. The summation index began to move lower. No OEX trades in mind at the moment. Gold was up $20 today as the dollar took a big drop despite weak economic data. The XAU gained 5 points. ABX and NEM rose about 1 1/2, while GG added 2 1/4. Volume was good in GG, average for the others. The earnings for ABX and GG were stellar. This was yet again another missed opportunity. The gold share calls that I wanted never got to my price and I should have made the adjustment. Had it not been such a dismal trading year so far, perhaps I would have been more aware and taken the chance. This failure mindset is yet another negative residual of a poor trading year. The gold shares had reached oversold again. The demand seems to be there regardless of the lofty prices. Mentally I'm doing OK, could have slept better. GDP in the morning and we'll see the markets reaction.

The Dow lost 43 points today on average volume. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 negative but the overall indices were stronger than the Dow. We were down well over 100 points but came back as has been the pattern for quite some time now. It seems as though the market just wants to continue to grind higher. Until we see some real downside, that is the scenario that I expect. No OEX trades for now. Gold lost $16 today as the Dollar gained some more ground. The XAU lost 3 7/8. ABX and NEM each lost a buck, while GG fell about 1/2. Volume was a bit better than average. I canceled the open order for the November ABX calls before the earnings. We'll see how they come out and take it from there. I may try the order again. We're oversold on the gold shares here. I expect pretty good earnings but that doesn't mean the shares will rise. Mentally I'm feeling fine. GDP on Friday and the Fed next week. There will be plenty of information for the markets to digest. However, the overall trend remains up until proven otherwise. The summation index is moving sideways and after today it should start to head lower. That could be the sign of a change in direction but it hasn't happened yet. It's possible the summation index could head lower and the indices simply move sideways. We'll see.

The Dow opened lower but closed with a gain of 5 points. The advance/declines were negative. Volume was average. We are doing a whole lot of nothing here. Volatility is nonexistent again. Short term overbought. No OEX trades in mind at the moment. Gold opened lower as well but came back to be unchanged. The XAU gained 3/4. ABX, GG and NEM were flat on the day with light volume. The dollar had a decent day but gold did not react as much as would be expected. I left the ABX November call trade open for another day. Earnings for ABX before the open on Thursday. I'm expecting good numbers but that doesn't always mean the stock will go up. ABX is working off the recent oversold condition at the moment in my opinion. Mentally I'm doing OK. The market continues to grind higher. The summation index is moving forward but in a sideways channel. I'm not going to force anything here. Still plenty of time on the November options. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

The Dow closed up 31 points today on average volume. Advance/declines were positive. We were much higher on the open and faded out for the rest of the day. Not sure that means anything though. Summation index continues higher and the market grinds up. No change in that scenario, even with the one day sell-off of last week. No OEX trades in mind. We are moving back to short term overbought. Gold gained $14 and the XAU rose 2 3/4. ABX and GG gained about 1/2 each, while NEM was flat. Volume was light. The dollar fell a bit. The big cap gold stocks did not move as much as I would expect with a decent gain in gold. Earnings for GG and ABX in a couple of days. I placed another order for the ABX November calls. We'll need to see some downside for this order to be filled. If it isn't filled ahead of the earnings, I'll be canceling the order. So we'll see what happens. Mentally I'm feeling tired, did not sleep well. End of the month at the end of the week. Plenty of data this week including the first look at 3rd quarter GDP. The market continues higher for now.

The Dow lost 14 points today on light volume. Advance/declines were positive. Today the overall market was stronger than the Dow. So here we are, continuing to grind higher. Summation index moving sideways. Nothing new to report. We had some volatility earlier in the week but it tapered off. No OEX trades in mind at the moment. Gold was flat on the day in the futures market. The US dollar as well. The XAU gained 1/3. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional moves to the upside on light volume. ABX and GG report earnings next week. I would like to try some ABX calls before the earnings and I will if the option prices reach what I believe to be a decent level. I canceled the open ABX November call trade for the weekend and will look to enter it again on Monday. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Not much else to report here. We'll close out October next week. There is a G-20 meeting this weekend but it will be the usual talk with no concrete action. I'll check the charts over the weekend as usual and decide if there are any trades available. I am looking at a longer term GE option trade for January. We'll see. It's the weekend and time for a rest.

The Dow gained 38 points today on good volume. Advance/declines were negative. The overall market was weaker than the Dow. The market seems to be earnings driven for the time being. No more economic data this week. Todays numbers were mixed. No OEX trades for now but I'm leaning towards trying the puts again. Gold fell $18 today as the dollar was a touch higher. The XAU dropped 2 1/3. ABX and GG were both off 1/2, while NEM dropped 1 1/4. Volume was good here as well. Perhaps the long gold trade is finally unwinding. I'm still leaving in my open order for the November ABX calls. It isn't close to being filled yet. I'll adjust things going into the weekend if necessary or simply cancel the order and wait for next week. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The jury is still out as to whether this is an actual top being formed or simply another consolidation until we continue higher. The summation index is moving sideways. That could be a precursor to a drop in prices. Or not. Patience is the key for now regarding trading the OEX. The gold shares are now oversold, so we'll see what happens there.

The Dow bounced back today as it gained 129 points on good volume. Advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. So was yesterday it for the decline? The rest of the week should tell. If we don't fall back then I think we will simply continue to grind our way higher. Resistance is at 1200 on the S&P 500. The summation index probably moved back to positive territory today. There's a chance that we are perhaps building a top here as the volatility has picked up. We will have to wait and see what the market says. Gold bounced back as well, up $10. The XAU rose 3 1/3. ABX, GG and NEM all gained around 1/2 on average volume. I'm leaving in the open order for November ABX calls. We'll have to see some weakness to have this order filled. ABX reports its earnings next week as well. The dollar gave back all of yesterdays gains as well. Perhaps the gold shares will consolidate and move sideways here before another leg up. That's a guess as usual. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Not much else to report. Some economic data out tomorrow and that's about it except for earnings the rest of the week. No rush to do anything and there aren't really any solid OEX signals right now. Patience required.

We finally got some downside today as the Dow lost 165 points on heavy volume. Advance/declines were 4 to 1 negative. China raised interest rates and there was some Bank of America mortgage problem. Was todays action just a one day wonder? Stay tuned. This will turn the summation index down. Whether or not we get an extended decline remains to be seen. Gold took a hit today as well, dropping $35. The XAU fell 9 1/2. ABX lost 2 1/3, GG shed 2 and NEM led the way down by 2 1/2. Volume was pretty good. Could this be the end of the gold trade for now? The dollar had a very good day as well and is now bouncing from its oversold condition. I am not sure if this is a lasting trend. I did place an order for some ABX November calls. An extra week on these options. If this is the end of the gold trade than this trade will not work. However I expect that at some point gold will have some type of snap back bounce. So I'm willing to take a chance here. Mentally I'm feeling OK, could have slept more. Perhaps this is the beginning of the decline in the indices that I expected a month and a half ago. However, technically we broke through the resistance on good volume. One scenario would be that we return to the resistance and then begin a more sustained rise. That would mean at the most, this decline would hold at around 1120 on the S&P 500. At this point it's all a guess. We'll see what the market has to say.

The Dow gained 80 points today on good volume. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The market continues to gain ground and there is no letting up. Price and volume are leading the way. Summation index also continues higher. Overbought and that doesn't seem to mean anything. This can't go on forever, can it? I have no OEX trades at the moment. Gold was flat today on the futures, while the XAU lost 1 1/8. ABX, GG and NEM were mixed on light volume. The dollar opened higher and closed lower. There is nothing stopping gold at the moment either. Very overbought and has been for what seems like weeks now. I'll be looking at the gold share calls on a pull back. I've said that for weeks as well. Gold and the stock indices moving higher are the trends that have been in place since the end of August. That ties in with the weaker dollar in the same time period. 76 is the key level for the US dollar. Mentally I'm doing OK. Not much else to say here. I don't have any good ideas right now. I'll be on the sidelines until something looks good to me.

The Dow lost 31 points today on expiration heavy volume. Advance/declines were negative. The overall market was much stronger than the Dow. GEs earnings disappointed and the major banks took a hit. We are still moving higher though. We'll see how the earnings shape up for next week. Gold lost $5 on the futures and a bit more in the aftermarket. The XAU lost 2 1/3. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses of at least 1/2 on light volume. The dollar bounced a bit today. I might try the November gold share calls on a pull back. Mentally I'm feeling OK. I didn't do anything stupid this week and that's a plus. The NASDAQ is much stronger than the Dow at the moment and that is usually a bullish sign. The next resistance for the S&P 500 is at the 1200 level. I'll check the charts over the weekend and go from there. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

The Dow lost a point today on average volume. Advance/declines were negative. We were down 70 points during the day but came all the way back. The economic data was mixed. We're still overbought. Thought about getting the OEX puts but the prices had moved too much. Will remain on the sidelines with regards to the OEX. Gold gained another $7 to another record high as the dollar was weaker today. The XAU lost 1 1/4. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on average volume. The US dollar is about to hit a key support level at 76. If we bounce from there, gold should come down from it's extreme overbought level. That may be an opportunity to try the gold shares again. However even with this recent spike in gold, the gold shares haven't had the proportional rise. Perhaps the GLD options would work better next time. We'll see. There's also the possibility that the 76 level won't hold on the US dollar. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Option expiration tomorrow and we move on to the November cycle.

The Dow continued higher today as it gained 75 points on heavy volume. Advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. The market moves higher regardless of the overbought condition. Summation index moving higher. We were up 130 at one point but sold off a bit in the last hour. I did want to try the OEX puts but held off. With only 2 days to go a trade like this has to work fast. The trouble is it could turn into another loser just as fast. A lot of data in the next 2 days and option expiration. Usually that means some volatility but that hasn't been the case in recent months. We'll see. Gold also cannot be stopped as we moved to another record high. The precious metal was up over $22 on the futures. The XAU gained 5 1/2. ABX up 3/4. GG up 1 1/4 and NEM up 1 1/8. Volume was above average. Gold is so overbought here that a downdraft is imminent in my opinion. It cannot simply continue to go straight up. The US dollar fell today but not enough to justify a $20+ move in gold. But that is just my opinion, which means absolutely nothing. Purchasing some gold share October calls yesterday would have been profitable. But it's too late and risky now. If and when we get a pull back, that may be the time to give them a shot. Mentally I'm feeling OK. 2 days to go in the October options and I will have to try and keep myself from doing something stupid. The only good set-ups here are for the downside and that hasn't worked for weeks. I'll do my best to stay on the sidelines. GE announces earnings on Friday and I have taken a look at the options there. However the risk is above average there as well. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

The Dow gained 10 points on average volume. Advance/declines were positive. The Fed minutes came out. Nothing new there. We were lower, we were higher and ended up in the middle. Nothing really going on so far this week as far as market movement but that could change. 3 days until expiration. No OEX trades in the works. Gold lost $7 on the futures. The XAU fell 3/4. ABX, GG and NEM were flat to slightly negative on light volume. There is an outside chance that I'll try something with the ABX calls this week but it's extremely risky. The dollar lost just a touch. Probably the best course of action here would be inaction. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Not much going on as I've already stated. It's earnings season so that might cause some movement to individual issues. The overall market is still overbought. That won't last forever. On to tomorrow.

It was a quiet expiration Monday as the Dow gained 3 points on light volume. Advance/declines were positive. Not much to say about todays session. Banks were closed for Columbus Day. All the players should return tomorrow. Overbought here but I don't think I'll be attempting any trades. 4 days left for the October options. So we'll see what happens. Gold bounced back another $10, even with the dollar moving higher. The XAU was flat. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional moves one way or the other on light volume. I might try a trade here this week but we are very overbought and it has been for an extended period of time. However the money continues to flow into gold and that must be respected. I've stated this for quite some time now. Of course, I haven't made any money on the fact. The Fed minutes will be announced tomorrow and that could be a market mover. Otherwise there isn't much data until the end of the week. Mentally I'm doing OK, a bit tired. The smart thing for me to do here is let this week pass. The November options have an extra week on them. So we'll see.

The Dow rose 58 points today, climbing back above 11000. Volume was average and the advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. The employment report was weaker than expected but it didn't matter. I dumped my OEX puts for around an 80% loss but it's worse than it sounds. Not a lot of money involved in that trade and within the guidelines that I set a month or so ago. But it's still another loser in the year of many. As usual the market goes where it wants. Don't fight the Fed was the moniker of market maven Marty Zweig. That seems to be the case for the recent positive market action. One week to go in the October option cycle and Monday is a bank holiday. My guess is that the powers that be will keep things propped up here for another week. Gold was up around $10, gaining back what it lost yesterday. The XAU was up 3 1/2. ABX rose 7/8, GG up 1/3 and NEM fell a touch. Volume was light to average. The dollar was off a bit today but not much considering the weak employment data. I really do not want to chase gold right now at these levels. Very overbought both long and short term. I will have to wait for at least some type of pull back before trying anything here. At least I should. There's always a chance that I'll do something stupid. Mentally I'm doing OK, a bit tired and need a good nights sleep. The weekend should take care of that. Not much else to say really. It's the beginning of October and we haven't seen any sustained downside since August. The seasonality pattern of the stock indices isn't working this year. I don't have any solid ideas at the moment. It would probably be best for me to stay on the sidelines next week but you never know. I do have an idea for some longer term GE calls but it may be too late for that after this weeks action in that issue. So it's another weekend to ponder the markets and try and come up with something profitable for the future. However it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

It was basically a waiting game today as the Dow lost 19 points. Advance/declines were slightly negative and the volume was light. On to the employment report tomorrow and the market reaction to the numbers. Just about out of time for the OEX puts I own. Probably bail out at a loss tomorrow unless we get some negative action in the indices. We'll see what happens. Not really overbought or oversold at the moment so anything can happen. Gold finally had a down day as it lost $12. The XAU dropped 5 1/2. ABX fell around a buck, while GG and NEM fell around 1 1/2. Volume was good. The dollar didn't do much today. Perhaps today was the beginning of the long awaited correction in gold. The good volume turnaround that we saw might be a clue. We'll have to wait and see what occurs tomorrow. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep well. Tomorrow should be interesting, one way or the other. I think as long as the US dollar continues to weaken, the indices should be in an uptrend. Owning the puts here isn't really the thing to do. I should have dumped them on the big up move this past Tuesday. But it's been a year of mistakes and this trade is just another one.

The Dow closed up 23 points on average volume. Advance/declines were negative. The overall market was weaker than the Dow. I still have the OEX puts but they're dead. Should be dumped this week. The employment report is the next catalyst on Friday. We'll see what happens. Gold gained another $10 today and the XAU was up 4. ABX, GG and NEM all rose a buck or more on average volume. The US dollar went to fresh lows. I canceled the open order for the ABX calls. Way too late for the gold shares at this point I believe. Overbought and staying there and that won't last forever. There will be a time for the gold shares again. Perhaps when they return to the breakout area. Gold has been the place to be. Mentally I'm feeling OK. 7 days in the October option cycle. I think that the prudent thing to do here is to let the October cycle end and go from there. For now it's a waiting game for Friday.

The stock market exploded to the upside today as the Dow gained 193 points. Advance/declines were almost 5 to 1 positive and the volume was good. It looks like an upside breakout as we completely turned around from yesterdays negative price action. Needless to say this action dooms my OEX puts. They are now under water and I'll be dumping them shortly. There is no technical reason for todays breakout. There wasn't any economic news as the driving force. It is a currency rally as the dollar made fresh lows for this move down in the buck. The market does what it wants. Gold made it to new highs, up over $24. The XAU gained over 6 points. ABX was up 1 1/3, GG up 1 1/8 and NEM up around a buck. Volume increased moving higher here as well. I put in an open order for some ABX October calls. This is a risky move with just 8 days to go but we are in a runaway upside gold market. My thinking is that the powers that be will hold it up into the expiration. Actually gold should have been my focus after Bernanke said he would do whatever it takes to keep rates low and the economy going. It's always easy to look back and determine what should have been done. It's a lot harder to live with your mistakes. Mentally I'm feeling OK. I get the feeling after today that it doesn't matter what the employment report says. The market will simply move higher. We would have to have a complete reversal in the next 2 days to negate that. I don't see that happening.

Monday started the week with a loss of 78 points on light volume. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 negative. My OEX puts are back in the black but not by much. This is a trade that needs to be exited this week. Before Fridays employment report would most likely be the smart thing to do. It looks like the market wants to roll over here but the summation index is still moving sideways. So we'll see. The daily charts could also break down here but it hasn't happened yet. However if we follow through to the downside tomorrow, it could get interesting. Gold was off a buck today as the dollar had a bit of strength. Perhaps the dollar got some interest with the heightened overseas terror alert. The XAU fell 3 1/2. ABX, GG and NEM all dropped around a buck on light volume. The daily charts here look like things are heading lower. I'm not looking at the gold share calls for October at the moment. The metal continues to outperform the gold shares. Eventually this relationship will change and when it does that will be the time for the gold share calls. Mentally I'm feeling OK. 9 days to go in the October option cycle. I feel as though I need to get out of this OEX trade before the employment report on Friday. That is what my work is telling me. However we might just go lower into that report. That's a guess. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

The Dow rose 41 points today on average volume. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. We opened higher and moved sideways for the rest of the day. My OEX puts are a touch in the red. We have been range bound for the week and I expect we will break out one way or the other soon. It has the feel of wanting to move higher. Beginning of the month money flows perhaps. I will probably have to dump these puts if we get any weakness early next week. Gold continues to set records as it gained another $8. The XAU rose 3 1/3. ABX up 3/4, GG gained 1/4 and NEM was higher by 7/8. Volume was about average. The dollar was weaker on the day once again. Perhaps the ABX call trade was really the way to go. The trends with gold higher and the dollar lower continue to persist. Very overbought on gold and very oversold on the dollar. That won't last forever but it remains to be seen when it will change. Mentally I'm feeling OK. 2 weeks to go in the October option cycle. Summation index starting to move up once again. That won't help the OEX puts. Perhaps it's just another mistake in the year of many. We'll find out early next week I'm sure. But now it's the weekend and time for a rest.

The Dow closed the month with a drop of 47 points. Volume picked up today. The advance/declines were about even. We opened higher and closed lower. I ended up getting some OEX puts in the morning when the market was positive. They are in the black. I'm not sure this trade will work but we are overbought and as I said yesterday the daily chart pattern looks like the August top. We also had a small move in the McClellan oscillator that implied short term weakness. I don't know how long that I will hold this position but it may not be too long. Tomorrow will tell a lot. Gold sold off early today but came back to finish unchanged. The XAU lost 2 points. ABX lost 2/3, GG off 1/2 and NEM led the way, off a buck. Volume picked up here as well. The dollar sold off early but then came back a bit. I canceled the ABX call trade for now. I wanted to focus my attention on the OEX. I may try the gold shares again later before the expiration. Still very overbought here. Mentally I'm feeling OK. There are some longer term indicators that imply there will be some weakness going forward. We'll see if they are accurate. Beginning of the month tomorrow and that usually means positive money flows for the market. The OEX trade is on.

The Dow lost 23 points today on average volume. Advance/declines were positive. Moving basically sideways for the past 3 days. End of the month and some economic data tomorrow. I would like to try the OEX puts again but there is no decent signal yet. However the daily pattern is similar to what the market did before the August decline. In August it felt like we were going to move to the upside out of the sideways pattern but we dropped. So we'll see. Gold was up a couple bucks as the dollar was a bit weaker. The XAU dropped 1/3. ABX up 1/4, GG was flat and NEM fell 1/3. Volume was light. I'm leaving in the open order for the ABX October calls. This may not be the right move but I'll leave it in for another day. Gold itself is still very overbought. Conditions like this cannot last forever. So we'll see what happens. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired today. Did not sleep enough. We'll wrap up September tomorrow and go from there. Seasonally, this is usually one of the weakest periods for the stock indices. It hasn't been that way this year. Perhaps the market is simply much stronger than I realize at this juncture.

We opened lower and closed higher as the Dow gained 46 points on average volume. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. I have thoughts of trying the OEX puts again but the market seems like it just wants to go higher. There also appears to be a lot of bulls coming out of the woodwork. If we break 1150 on the S&P 500 then we should move higher. I'm on the sidelines for now. Gold set yet another new high as the dollar continues to drop. It was up $10 on the futures. The XAU gained 3 3/4. ABX up a buck, GG gained 1/2 and NEM rose 1 1/2. Volume was good. Money just continues to flow into this sector. I placed an open order for some ABX October calls. However most likely today was the day to purchase them. Still overbought but it just doesn't correct. We'll see what happens. Perhaps today was just an end of the month window dressing for the gold shares. It's tough to chase things sometimes. As I remember, it didn't work the last time I tried it. Mentally I'm kind of in a funk. I really don't have a good handle on things here. No reason really. The stock indices are in an uptrend and gold is too. But these trends don't last forever.

It was a slow day today as the Dow lost 48 points on light volume. Advance/declines were negative. We opened lower, made it back to positive territory and went back down into the close. I have no OEX trades in mind at the moment. We're overbought but that hasn't meant much lately. End of the month on Thursday. We'll get the most economic data on the last couple of days of the week. Gold was flat on the day. The XAU lost 1 1/2. The dollar didn't do much either. ABX fell 1/2, GG off 1/4 and NEM shed 3/4. Volume was light. I still might try the gold share calls if we move to oversold this week on a daily basis. But that remains to be seen. So it's a wait and see game here as well. Mentally I'm feeling OK. There isn't much for me to say here. We broke out on the S&P 500 when we crossed 1130. Unless we are forming a bull trap, the trend is up and we are going higher. The gold market continues in an uptrend. Volume continues light. We'll see what happens Tuesday.

The Dow staged an explosive rally today as it gained 198 points on average volume. The advance/declines were 5 to 1 positive. I don't know where it came from but I'm sure some short covering was involved. I got stopped out of the OEX put trade for another 40% loss. This trade looked great yesterday but that all changed today. The summation index has turned back to the upside today. The weekly charts don't look bearish anymore. I'm not sure where the next trade is for me with regards to the OEX. Gold was up only a couple of bucks, which wasn't much considering the US dollar got clobbered again. The XAU gained 2/3. ABX was off 1/3, GG was flat and NEM dropped about 1/2. Volume was light. The gold shares and gold itself are very overbought. They have been for a while. Perhaps I'll try a trade there but I certainly don't have a good idea. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Well it looks like my overall strategy of a drop in the market in the autumn didn't work. Unfortunately none of my ideas this year have worked that well, if at all. It's been a memorable year to forget so far. So where do we go from here? It looks like the rally that started in the beginning of September has legs. Unless we get a complete market reversal, the trend is up. There's 3 weeks to go on the October options. I don't see any trades for me at the moment but I'll check the charts over the weekend. It's the first weekend of fall. Time for a break.

The Dow lost 77 points today on light volume. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. We sold off early, came all the way back and then fell again. The summation index should be rolling over today but that doesn't mean we are going to collapse. My OEX puts are now slightly in the black. We'll be oversold by Monday so I will have to think about exactly what to do here. No news to speak of really. So perhaps the technicals are going to work here. Gold was up $4 on the futures, however the dollar gained some ground today. The XAU lost 1 1/2. ABX and GG fell 1/2, while NEM lost a buck. Volume was average. I still may try the gold share calls here again but they are very overbought. So we'll see. However if the market drops, the gold shares will go with them. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept well. So perhaps the OEX put trade will work but it's still early. Tomorrow will tell a lot. The weekly charts for the indices now are looking bearish. That, combined with a declining summation index could make the put trade profitable. Time will tell.

The Dow dropped 21 points today in what I would describe as listless trading. Volume was average. The advance/declines were negative. Once again the overall market was weaker than the Dow. My OEX puts didn't do much and are still in the red. The postings on the summation index are getting closer and perhaps will turn this indicator down. It has yet to happen though. A bit of economic data out tomorrow so we'll have to see what happens. Gold continues to be the story and we hit new highs again today as the dollar continued to weaken. The gold futures were up $17. The XAU gained 2 1/3. ABX up 3/8, GG up 1/8 and NEM up 3/4. Volume was good, confirming the moves higher. We are overbought here but the gold market doesn't care. I might just have to try the ABX calls again for the October option cycle. I suppose that I'm still regretting getting stopped out on that last trade. Mentally I'm doing OK, slept better. We'll have to see how this OEX put trade works out in the coming 2 days before the weekend. We're still a bit overbought but we could just be working off that condition. I'll really need to see some solid downside to tell if this trade has a chance. We'll see what happens tomorrow.

It was an up and down session with the Dow ending with a slight gain of 7 points. Volume was average. The advance/declines were negative. The overall market was weaker than the Dow. The Fed made its announcement and we gyrated after that. We were down 40 and up 70. Still very overbought here short and medium term. My OEX puts almost got stopped out at the highs for the day but somehow were not. They are still in the red. We'll see if they last tomorrow. On to gold, which sold off early in the day and then roared back after the Fed announcement as the dollar plummeted. The futures closed off $6 but then gained all that back and another $7 in the aftermarket. The XAU sold off and came back as well, up 1 1/4. The gold shares sold off early and I was stopped out of the ABX call trade for a loss of 40%. ABX then turned around and the same position would now be up 20%. That is the downside of having the stop loss order. Sometimes you lose the position and it would of worked. But I have to limit my losses. ABX was up 1/3, GG up 1/2 and NEM up 7/8. Volume expanded to the upside. Gold is the place to be at the moment as it is attracting new funds. It has been the place to be for a while. If the dollar continues to break down here, gold will flourish. Mentally I'm feeling tired, did not sleep well or enough. I'm disappointed in the gold trade loss but it's been that type of year. Perhaps this OEX trade will work but it could be stopped out tomorrow on market strength. We'll see. Now that the Fed is out of the way, we'll see what happen overseas tonight and go from there.

The Dow broke out to the upside today, gaining 145 points on average volume. Advance/declines were 5 to 1 positive. Summation index heading higher. My open order for the OEX puts was filled but this trade is not going to work if this breakout is valid and it appears to be. The stop loss order is in place and should be hit tomorrow. When everyone is looking for a decline, it won't happen. That seems to be the case here. It's just another losing trade for the year. Fed announcement tomorrow and that will probably propel us even higher. Gold was up $3 today and the dollar was a touch weaker. The XAU was up 2 2/3. ABX gained 1/2, GG up a buck and NEM gained 1/4. Volume was light. My ABX calls are slightly in the red. They did turn positive during the day but the gold shares sold off with the rally. It doesn't look like this trade will work either but we'll see. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Could have slept better. So it looks like the market wants to head higher and all indications are that it will. My trades will most likely be stopped out. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

We closed the week with a slight gain of 13 points on the Dow. We opened higher on the day and then just drifted. Advance/declines were positive and the volume was better than it has been. That could be expiration related. We're still overbought here. Summation index continues higher. Nothing has really changed. We either break out on good volume to the upside next week or we begin a decline. I still have the open order in for the October OEX puts. I'll go over things this weekend and re-evaluate this idea. Gold was up a couple of bucks today but the XAU fell 1 1/8. ABX, GG and NEM moved fractionally one way or the other on what goes for average volume these days. My ABX October calls are still in the red. Perhaps I'll have to dump them on Monday if I'm looking for downside in the overall market. However if we break out to the upside, then this trade will probably work. More things to ponder over the weekend. The dollar was up a touch today but had a bearish week. Mentally I'm feeling OK. I think that next week will be the key to where the stock indices are heading. We are at the resistance on the S&P 500 once again. If we break through there could be what's called a stock melt up. Money will pile in. In the opposite scenario if we fail to get above the resistance, sellers will reappear and down we will go. I'm still in the latter camp but I realize that the market will go where it wants. I'm going to have to make up my mind this weekend and go from there. Seasonality favors a decline here. So we'll have to wait and see. For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

The Dow gained 22 points today on light volume. Advance/declines were negative. We were lower for most of the day and got back into positive territory in the last 2 hours. Still overbought here and I would expect some weakness near term. I just don't know how long that will last if it does occur. I adjusted down the price for the OEX October puts that I have an open order for. Summation index remains to the upside, implying higher prices for the indices. Option expiration tomorrow. Gold was up $5 today and the XAU rose 2 1/2. ABX up 7/8, GG up 1/4, while NEM was flat. Volume was average. My ABX calls are still in the red. I'm thinking that now this may just be a trade to get out of, since my timing wasn't correct on the entry. We'll see. Still 4 weeks to go and gold has broken out to new highs. The dollar lost a bit of ground today and gold reacted as expected for a change. Mentally I'm doing OK. So we'll see what kind of expiration Friday we get. Could be another non event as it has been lately. We still haven't gotten through the resistance at 1130 on the S&P 500 but we are close. If and when that happens the OEX put trade will have to be canceled. However the volume really needs to pick up. It has been light for months and summer is over. We'll see how we close out the week and go from there.

Overbought and staying there as the Dow gained 46 points on average volume. Advance/declines were positive. We are both short and medium term overbought now. I do expect lower prices in the near future. That doesn't mean things won't hold up here for expiration, they could. I'm leaving in the OEX October puts order. We still have yet to break the resistance at 1130 on the S&P 500. Let me say something about the volume here. Average volume lately would normally be considered light. Light volume is now considered very light. There just aren't as many participants as there used to be. That will change but I don't know when. Gold was off a couple of bucks after yesterdays record run. The XAU fell 1/2. ABX, GG and NEM all moved fractionally on average volume. I would have liked to have seen some follow through on gold and the gold shares but it didn't happen. My ABX calls are in the red. If the market does drop here, the gold shares will probably go with it initially. So this trade at the moment looks like another loser. I may just bail out of it before the weekend if I don't see some upside in the next 2 days. The dollar bounced a bit today and that didn't help the precious metal. Mentally I'm a bit tired, could have slept longer. It is also possible that tomorrow brings a very positive day as some of my work indicates that there could be an upside breakout to the trading range. But it would have to be a huge volume day and with the current overbought status, I don't think it will happen. But I've been wrong for much of the year already. If we do open strong I'll have to cancel the OEX put trade. So we'll see.

It was an up and down session as the Dow finished off by 17 points. Advance/declines were negative and the volume was average. We are at the overhead resistance. I think this is a major inflection point for the stock indices. We are either going to break out to the upside on increased volume and continue the rally or we will fail here and begin another decline. I'm leaving in the open order for the OEX puts. We are overbought here but sometimes we stay there. Gold had a breakout to new highs on increased volume. The XAU rose 5 points but was higher early. ABX up 1, GG rose 1 1/2 and NEM up 2 3/8. These issues were also higher and sold off late. Volume was above average. I bought some ABX October calls on the breakout. I was going to wait for the Gold/XAU buy signal but it's possible that the parameters for that have now changed. Time will tell. I did not like how the gold shares ended the day by selling off. I would have liked to have seen these issues end the day near their highs. So perhaps this is another mistake. However the breakout of gold occurred on increased volume and that is a positive sign. The dollar also fell again today and gold paid attention. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The trade that I put on here is already off 10%. I have the stop loss order placed. So we'll see what happens. I still think the overall market is headed lower but gold would be looked at as a safe haven again. Or perhaps that's just wishful thinking. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

The Dow continues higher, up another 81 points today. Advance/declines were over 3 to 1 positive and the volume was average. Summation index continues higher. We are approaching short term overbought here. I expect this week to be positive with the expiration of the September option contracts. That said, I did place an order for some October OEX puts. We are just about at the resistance of 1130 on the S&P 500. It will take an expansion of volume getting through that level to change my mind. That could happen. Gold was flat on the day despite the US dollar getting clobbered. Another divergence between gold and the dollar. ABX dropped 1/2, NEM lost 1/4, while GG was flat. Volume here was very light. The Gold/XAU ratio is nowhere near a buy signal. I'll be on the sidelines here until this indicator provides a buy signal and we are oversold. Mentally I'm doing OK. The stock indices rallied today with the drop in the US dollar. Could this be a sign of things to come? I certainly don't know. However I am sticking with my negative market outlook going forward until proven otherwise. We are still in a trading range and approaching the top of that range. We'll see what happens tomorrow.

It was just another lackluster day in the markets as the Dow gained 47 points on light volume. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. It's just more of the same here as we are grinding higher approaching the 200 day moving average line on the S&P 500. Volatility is low and that will change eventually. The question is, when? Option expiration week coming up and we'll see if it has its usual positive bias. No OEX trades at the moment but I'm probably going to try some October OEX puts if we stall again at around 1130 basis S&P 500. Gold was off almost $5 on the futures, while the XAU gained 1 3/4. ABX and NEM were up around 1/2. GG was flat. Volume extremely low here. The dollar closed about unchanged today. The weekly charts on the gold shares have stalled. The metal itself continues to act better. I don't know what it means going forward but you'd rather see them move in tandem. I'm still leaning towards the October ABX calls. No trades for now though. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Hard for me to figure out just where we are going from here. The lack of participation isn't a good sign in my opinion. However we could see some type of short squeeze if we get above 1110 on the S&P 500. That seems to be the short term resistance for now. The summation index continues higher and that still implies that the trend is up. I'm going to stay on the sidelines for now and watch where we go in the beginning of next week. But now the weekend is here and it's time for a break.